Testing the waters

President Mubarak's visit to the US could not have come at a more crucial time, reports Nevine Khalil from Washington
President Hosni Mubarak is due to return to Egypt today from his first visit to the US capital since the 11 September attacks. Against a backdrop of mounting regional tensions it was inevitable that any exclusively bilateral issues on the agenda would be overshadowed by an imploded peace process, and by the possible extension of the campaign against terror to include attacks against Iraq.
"Our primary concern was to stop the violence and killings on both sides and maintain stability in the region," said one highly placed source.
After three days of talks the US is now more clearly aware of Egypt's positions across a whole range of interconnected issues, while Cairo has used the opportunity to test the pulse in Washington.
Though Mubarak and Bush saw eye-to-eye on many issues during their talks on Tuesday, the president's visit was not all smooth sailing. According to one Egyptian source the US "is not really convinced its interests are at stake as a result of tensions in the region."
Middle East Institute President Edward Walker agrees. He told Al-Ahram Weekly that while the State Department was concerned over its interests in the region the White House was unlikely to take any decision until receiving feedback from US Vice President Dick Cheney's tour of the region next week. "After that we are hoping for a lot more leadership from the president [Bush]," said Walker.
For his part, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher hopes that Cheney's tour "will be a factor in calming the situation and making progress towards a political settlement."
Bush insisted that the Americans remain "committed to two states -- Israel and Palestine" and see the implementation of the Tenet security plan and Mitchell recommendations as the key to restoring the peace process. "Both [Egypt and the US] view the situation with great alarm," noted Bush at a join news conference. "And we're both determined to redouble our efforts to work for peace."
That said, Washington has no immediate plans to send any peace brokers to the region
"We stand ready to return [General Antony] Zinni to the region, when appropriate," Bush declared. State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher elaborated, saying that the US would not send envoys "just to have somebody out there. We send envoys when there's something useful that can be done, and this requires a certain willingness of the parties to take the steps that are necessary to stop the violence."
If the bilateral side of the visit was dwarfed it did result in the relaunching of the Egypt-US strategic dialogue that provides a framework for regular coordination on political, economic and military issues.
"This relationship is a cornerstone of our policy in the Middle East," said Bush. Mubarak concurred, saying that "we have built a solid partnership that is serving our bilateral interests and the cause of peace and stability in the Middle East."
Bush also thanked Mubarak for Egypt's "steadfast support in [the] war against terror. I am proud of our alliance [and Mubarak's] resolve to rout out terror wherever it exists."
That Mubarak's trip -- originally pencilled in for April -- was moved forward during a telephone conversation with Bush a few weeks ago indicates the concern of both sides at an increasingly aggravated situation. In response Mubarak pitched the idea of hosting a Sharon-Arafat meeting at Sharm El-Sheikh, an offer the Israelis rejected though Sharon said he was willing to meet Mubarak alone. Consulting former Israeli President Ezer Weizman, Mubarak sought guarantees that after the meeting with Sharon Arafat would be invited to attend. Weizman said that was a 90 per cent possibility. "No. It should be 100 per cent, because we are meeting for [the sake of] peace," replied Mubarak. Since then, there has been no reply from Sharon.
Egypt remains willing to host other meetings between the two sides: the security talks outlined in the Tenet plan which will pave the way for implementing the Mitchell recommendations, for instance.
"Sharon's approach of trying to fight his way to a conclusion will not work," says Walker. "There is increasing sympathy and unity behind Arafat, and much is against Israel's advantage."
Bush applauded efforts by Mubarak and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah to break the cycle of violence. "I appreciate any efforts, any ideas that will lay out a vision for a peaceful resolution," he said.
While appreciative of the Saudi initiative Egypt emphasised that it was a starting point and not a step-by-step recipe leading to a peace deal. Sources warned that Israel would seek to drag its heels and outmanoeuvre the Arabs: "It's a slippery slope if the Arab world starts taking steps towards Israel and making concessions, and then receives nothing in return," said one source. "Otherwise it's just a game of who will blink first."
While neither Cairo, nor any other Arab capital, was consulted before Crown Prince Abdullah announced his "initiative," Mubarak revealed that his consultations with Arab leaders suggested the Saudi position would win the approval of the Arab summit at the end of the month.
The Arab summit, though, "was not on the agenda of talks in Washington," one source revealed. "Ending the violence was."
As Mubarak's visit progressed concerns over possible strikes against Iraq as part of the US campaign against terror also slipped down the agenda, though Cairo drew a clear line between the fight against terror and the non- implementation of UN resolutions.
Many believe that the US is preparing domestic opinion by "making it appear that strikes against Iraq are an historical inevitability," as one source put it.
"[These strikes] are being sold to the US public as part of the war on terror," Walker said. "This administration is more committed than the previous one to getting rid of Saddam Hussein."
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