As both sides agree a ceasefire, Nasser Arrabyee in Sanaa asks if the Yemen war is really over, while Mohamed Hafez figures what comes next is a waiting game The war in Yemen is apparently over. However, there are no guarantees that it will not erupt again. Shia Houthi rebels accepted last week all six conditions set out by the government for ending the conflict, which has cost the country a lot. Both sides declared a ceasefire on 12 February to end the sixth round of fighting that lasted for more than six months, the longest and the most violent of the six-year old sporadic war, which has claimed thousands of lives, and displaced about 250,000 people. The international community, which pressured Sanaa to end the war, welcomed the decision and called for the unity and stability of the country, which still faces two more challenges: separation calls in the south and an open war with Al-Qaeda, which exploits the widespread unrest to recruit new fighters. "The United States supports a unified, stable, democratic and prosperous Yemen," US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said during her recent trip to the Middle Eastern. The decree to end the war comes before the international donors meet in Riyadh at the end of this month for supporting Yemen and helping it face its major challenges. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has chosen 20 members of the parliament from all parties and formed four separate committees for supervising the implementation of the six conditions, which included the rebels leaving their mountain redouts and handing over their heavy weapons during the next 45 days. One of these four committees is in charge of supervising the implementation of the conditions on the borders with Saudi Arabia, which is demanding the immediate release of five of its soldiers captured by the rebels. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also wants the Yemeni army to be deployed on the borders to prevent rebels who attacked its territories last November from returning. The rebels released only one injured Saudi soldier to the Yemeni government which in turn handed him over to Riyadh. They have kept the remaining four, saying they want the governments of Saudi Arabia and Yemen to release their detainees first. This was not in the declared conditions. The Saudi authorities repeatedly said they would not deal with the rebels over any issue whatsoever, only the Sanaa government and that they will only hand over Houthi rebels to the Yemen government as Yemenis. The Saudi captives are one of the most sensitive issues that may obstruct the efforts of the mediation committees. The second issue that may obstruct reconciliation and bringing peace to war-torn Saada are the tribal blood feuds between tribesmen who are divided in terms of loyalty between the government and the Houthi rebels. For instance, a senior military officer was killed Tuesday when a group of Houthi rebels attacked a checkpoint in Al-Jawf province, southeast of Saada, according to local and security sources. Houthi rebels attacked and killed Colonel Ali Darban at the checkpoint between the area of Al-Samoom and Al-Zaher. The officer belongs to the Shulan tribe which is pro-government, and the attackers belong to Al-Ashraf who support the Houthi rebels. The two tribes also have had an unsolved blood feud for about 30 years. The government considered the incident as a breach of the ceasefire, while the Houthi said it was only a tribal dispute. Such exchanges of accusations started only hours after the two side declared the ceasefire, when the Houthi rebels tried to assassinate the top security official in Saada city, Mohamed Al-Kawsi, and killed two soldiers. The government said Tuesday, in a statement disseminated by state-run media, that the Houthi rebels blew up a courthouse and five other buildings and plundered properties belonging to the Othman tribes in Bakem area, north of Saada. However, independent sources said that before the Houthi rebels did this, a group of gunmen from the Othman had killed a number of rebels in an ambush in Bakem. A tribal feud between those loyal to the Othman and Houthi in the district of Bakem erupted even before the war between the rebels and the government troops. These two incidents, in Al-Jawf and Bakem, show how difficult it is for both sides to implement the six conditions of the ceasefire while there are tribal groups who are not under their control. There are tribesmen loyal to Houthi rebels and others loyal to the government, but they care only for their own interests. Despite these difficulties, some observers are optimistic about a permanent end of the war. Ahmed Al-Sufi, a political analyst and chairman of the Yemeni Institute for Democratic Development, said the decision to end the war was a strategic one for both sides. "Two things imposed the end of the war: the government returned from the London conference with many commitments to solve its problems in Saada, the south, and with Al-Qaeda. Houthi rebels have almost exhausted all their resources, even their Iranian support stopped, and they were on the point of defeat," Al-Sufi told Al-Ahram Weekly. "President Saleh was shrewd enough to declare the end of the war, and he is now a winner as a state leader, but loser as a military commander. Al-Houthi wants to be a winner politically, but he is almost defeated militarily." The governor of Saada, Taha Hajer, said Tuesday that the displaced people started to return to their villages and houses in Saada. The governor, who accused the rebels of being slow in responding to the mechanism of implementing the six conditions of ending the war, also said that government officials, especially the heads of the districts, returned to their offices and started working on Monday in four districts out of 11 under the control of the rebels: Ketaf, Razeh, Al-Hashwah, and Al-Safra. Despite breaches and exchange of accusations, the four field committees, in which Houthi rebels are represented, have been working on reopening the blocked roads, removing mines, and lifting checkpoints and barricades since 12 February, when the ceasefire was announced. Committee chairman Mohamed Al-Hawri said they visited the areas of Shada and Razeh after the rebels removed barriers, mines, and barricades. But, Al-Hawri gave no news about the Saudi prisoners issue which is the most important issue for this committee in particular. Zaid Al-Shami, chairman of the committee in Al-Malahaid, said that he met with Houthi representative Youssef Al-Faishi, and that they reopened the road which led to Al-Malahaid after removing the mines, and barriers and barricades. The chairman of the committee in Saada city, Ali Abu Hulaikah, said he met with representatives of Houthi rebels Saleh Al-Sumad and Taha Al-Madani, and reopened the roads from Saada, Al-Okab, Al-Mahather, Al-Ain, Suk Al-Lail, Al-Amashia and Harf Sufyan. At long last calm has swept northern Yemen after a truce which technically began at midnight one week ago, after six months of gruelling battles. This is the latest ceasefire since war broke out in 2004. If the ceasefire stands this time, it will end what is known in Yemen as the sixth round of fighting between the government and the Houthi rebellion. Sanaa, representing the legitimate authority seeking to impose its control over the country, views its opponents as outlaws; in the other camp, Badr Al-Houthi's group wants to impose Al-Zaydi religious school of thought, and has a number of demands which are viewed as their legitimate rights and are worth going to war for. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh issued a decree on 11 February to end all military operations in the northwestern regions of the country, based on a decision by the National Defence Council (NDC). Shortly before that, rebel leader Abdel-Malek Al-Houthi had sent a message to President Saleh agreeing to the six requisites of the Supreme Security Committee (SSC) needed to reach a truce in the North. The six conditions are a ceasefire, reopening roads in the North and clearing landmines; abandoning military posts in the mountains and on roads; withdrawing from government buildings and not interfering in local government affairs; the return of seized civilian and military equipment belonging to Yemen and Saudi Arabia; the release of all military and civilian prisoners, including Saudis; upholding the Constitution, law and order; and not attacking neighbouring Saudi Arabia. There are many reasons, both domestic and international, why the government decided to end fighting in Saada. Domestically, the three main players are the government, the rebel movement, and Yemen's geo-political character. For its part, the government seems genuinely intent to end the war with the rebels this time, in order to focus on resolving the problems of Al-Qaeda and the southern mobility movement. Sweeping protests have overtaken the six southern governorates, while Al-Qaeda continues to gain ground and power. While the Houthis are part of the country's geo-political and historic fabric, and have never battled or sought independence, the southern movement wants to revert back to its pre-1990 independence. This constitutes a real threat to the main achievement of Saleh's regime -- Yemeni unity. Sanaa does not want to be trapped in an endless war with the Houthis, while southern separatists and protesters gain momentum and become uncontrollable. If Saleh loses power there, the outcome could possibly be a federal government in the south, similar to the Kurds in Iraq and the anticipated results of the upcoming referendum in southern Sudan. Accordingly, the government accepted Al-Houthi's offer and announced a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the northern rebellion had no exit strategy except to comply with the government's conditions, especially as it was getting close to surrendering. The rebels have suffered the harsh consequences of attacks by government forces, as well as Saudi raids from across the border. On the battleground, they felt the end is near because the war had lasted too long and the government was able to cut off their supplies. Also, and despite the fact that the most recent war lasted longer than six months, the international community did not respond to the pleas of the rebels, leaving them feeling defeated and desperate. The only way out was dialogue and accepting the government's conditions, especially once the London conference on Yemen confirmed international support for the unity and security of Yemeni territories. The international community gave the regime a carte blanche to resolve domestic issues as it sees fit, whether with the northern rebellion or the secessionist movement in the south. The rebels chose to secure some gains, such as the promise of development projects in Saada and placing the region on the government's socio-economic development agenda. They also reconciled with Saudi Arabia which will host a donor conference for Yemen next month. While the rebels were weakened, there was no guarantee that the government forces could obliterate them. Yemen's mountainous terrain is similar to that in Afghanistan and Pakistan, making it difficult to win a military battle there. This was demonstrated by Egypt's inability to declare victory over the royalists in 1962 during the Yemeni revolution, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of lives. Neither, apparently, can the US army and its NATO allies, with all their might and capabilities, obliterate the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is essentially a war in the mountains against bands of armed fighters, carrying light weaponry and hiding in caves, which makes it a difficult battle because there is no clear frontline for combat. The fighters control surrounding areas at night and carry out attacks at irregular intervals, winning some tactical military battles to raise morale. At the same time, they easily mingle with the local population by day. It is claimed the Houthis are supported by Iran, and Yemeni authorities say that there are two Arab countries which aid them as well. While internal support for the rebels is not sufficient to secure victory, it is enough to avoid defeat. According to rebel's logic, and prevailing Arab reasoning, a defeat of one side is not necessarily a victory for the other. Another important factor is the ethnic composition of Yemen, which consists of various tribes, where the loyalty of the individual is to the tribe not the state. Tribal loyalty is vital, as demonstrated by the government's seeming inability to defeat the Houthis. Since the northern rebellion began, international and regional powers have extended their support and assistance to the ruling regime, in the hope that Yemen's stability will safeguard the interests of these powers there. The outcome of the London conference on 28 January demonstrated the world's commitment to supporting Sanaa in its battle against Al-Qaeda and other forms of terrorism. It also pledged support for the government in developing its terrorism-fighting capabilities, and boosting the security of its skies and borders. Mohamed Hafez is a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
