As conflict once again breaks out in Yemen between the government and the Al-Houthi rebels, could the military option be the answer to the country's civil strife, asks Nasser Arrabyee Yemen is at war again after a one-year truce with the Al-Houthi rebels in the north of the country, following a government decision to strike the rebels with "an iron fist" amid claims that they pose a threat to the country's sovereignty and security. Earlier this month, the Al-Houthi group, a Shia faction, tried to block the road connecting the capital Sanaa with the province of Saada where they are based, as well as the highway between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the Al-Malahaid area. Hundreds have been killed and injured and tens of thousands displaced from their homes in an offensive launched by troops over the last 10 days. The Shia rebellion erupted for the first time in June 2004, when rebel leader Hussein Badreddin Al-Houthi entered into a confrontation with the country's army. The government has accused the Al-Houthi rebel group of wanting to restore the clerical and royal rule that was overthrown in Yemen in 1962 after ruling different parts of the country for some 1,000 years. For their part, the group has said that it is acting in self-defence, despite the fact that many observers consider that it is trying to construct a state within the state. The group has its own courts, which hold trials and issue verdicts, and it levies money to run its organisation. Furthermore, the Al-Houthi group teaches students in its many schools that the group's ideas, which state that the country's rulers should be descendants of the Prophet Mohamed, are the correct ones for ruling Yemen. The armed conflict in Yemen is also connected to a wider political conflict in the region. After the outbreak of the conflict, Iran accused Saudi Arabia of participating in air strikes against the Shia rebels, who are also accused by the Yemeni government of receiving support from Iran. Internal and external mediation has thus far failed to end the five-year old conflict. In February 2008, representatives of the rebels and of the Yemeni government signed a Qatari-brokered deal in Doha that required the rebels to descend from the mountains and lay down their weapons, in addition to the three main leaders of the group leaving Yemen for Qatar. In exchange, the Yemeni government was required to reconstruct war-torn areas in Saada. An ongoing reconstruction process worth $S50 million has been stopped by the present round of conflict, the sixth since 2004. Unlike during the previous campaigns, Yemeni government troops this time round are using all kinds of weapons against the rebels, focussing on air strikes in an attempt to destroy fortifications and weapons stores in the strongholds of Mutrah and Dhahyan where the leadership is based. Although the government seems to be determined to crush the rebellion and restore its prestige, it says it will stop the offensive if the rebels withdraw from the areas they have occupied in the present round of conflict and remove check points established in different areas of Saada. The government is also demanding that the rebels hand over military and civil equipment seized from army and government facilities. A further demand is that the rebels release people kidnapped from Saada and stop interfering in the affairs of the local authorities. Finally, the government has asked the Al-Houthi rebels to clarify the fate of the six foreigners kidnapped in Yemen last June. According to the Yemeni government, the Al-Houthi rebels were behind the kidnapping of the foreigners, who include five members of a German family and a British man. The rebels have rejected the government's demands and threatened retaliation. They also deny kidnapping the foreigners. "The kidnapping was a pretext to launch the war against us, as we have said from the beginning," said Mohamed Abdel-Salam, an Al-Houthi spokesman, in a telephone interview with Al-Ahram Weekly from Saada. "The government's using this issue now is evidence of a conspiracy." A question for observers now is why the conflict has again emerged, when Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced in July 2008 that it had ended forever. Related questions are whether the government's use of the military option will end the conflict and who is supporting the Al-Houthi group. According to Najeeb Ghallab, a political analyst at Sanaa University, the conflict has broken out again because of the group's expansionist strategy, its dominance of Saada, and the new supporters it has found in other areas, such as Al-Jawf, Amran and Sanaa. "Before this round of conflict, the Al-Houthi rebels had blockaded military camps and arrested a lot of soldiers. So the government had the choice of either letting them expand until they attacked the capital Sanaa, or striking them with an iron fist in a bid to reimpose its authority," Ghallab said. While the military option may succeed in reimposing state control, it is unlikely to solve the problem, he said. This will only come about if Saada tribesmen adopt a unified position against the rebels. "The tribesmen should tell the rebels clearly, at a tribal conference for instance, that they will not support them unless they lay down their weapons and descend from the mountains," he said. Ghallab said that the Iranian government could be behind the Al-Houthi rebels. "Iran has strategic goals in this regard, and the Iranians believe an army will come from Yemen to support the long-awaited 12th imam, the Mahdi," he said. "Any threat to the Yemeni state will also threaten Saudi Arabia, the only force that can confront Iran. Iran therefore has an interest in promoting threats to Yemen." However, Yehia Al-Mukhtafi, an observer in Saada, disagrees with Ghallab, saying that the rebels have been receiving support from inside the country and not outside. "The strength of Al-Houthi comes from weapons captured during previous rounds of conflict, and also from the sympathy of people across the country, especially the Hashemites, with their cause," Al-Mukhtafi, who is Hashemite and close to the Al-Houthi group, said. "I do not think there is external support, and, if there is any, it is from sympathetic organisations and individuals." For his part, Sanaa University professor Ahmed Al-Daghashi, author of a book entitled The Al-Houthi Phenomenon, says the problem has complicated ideological, political, geographical and developmental dimensions. "Although the military option is important at the moment, it will not end the problem without treating those dimensions," Al-Daghashi said. He believes there is internal and external support for the rebels. "There is external support," he said, this being more political than anything else. "The regional political conflict is the main reason for the external support," Al-Daghashi said. "While I think there is some coordination and cooperation, this does not mean there is a direct link between the Al-Houthi movement and Iranian Shiism, which is based on a belief in the 12th Imam," he said.
