Dina Ezzat follows the flurry of Arab and international diplomatic activity over Sudan ahead of its upcoming elections Today in Khartoum the African Union High Panel on Darfur will meet with leading political figures from the north in a bid to promote a comprehensive settlement to the many conflicts facing Sudan, especially in Darfur and the south. The committee, headed by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, has already held an extensive round of talks in recent days with key players of influence, including the leaders of Egypt, Libya and Chad and the secretary-general of the Arab League. It has concluded that a sustainable resolution to the humanitarian tragedy in Darfur depends on a wider settlement of Sudan's many political conflicts, including internal squabbles in the north and tension between the north and south ahead of a referendum on unity scheduled for January 2011. The meeting of the Mbeki-led committee coincides with the return of US Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration, who is planning to spend over a week in the region to follow up on contacts between the Khartoum regime and its political and militant opposition in Darfur and the south. It also coincides with talks that Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa has been holding with political leaders in Khartoum and Darfur, and other talks he is planning to hold next week with political leaders of the south. With less than eight weeks to go before legislative and presidential elections, Sudan is witnessing a flurry of diplomatic activities. The three main contenders in the upcoming elections are -- so far -- President Omar Al-Bashir, head of the northern ruling National Congress Party, who also faces International Criminal Court charges of crimes against humanity in Darfur, Yassir Arman of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, and Sadeq Al-Mahdi, head of the northern National Umma Party. Intense diplomacy on Sudan comes against a backdrop of continued incidents of violence between the Khartoum regime and Darfur rebels. It also comes amid political and military instability in south Sudan. A report presented by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to the Security Council on developments in Sudan acknowledged continued political and militant confrontations on the eve of elections, and not so far away from next year's referendum, in the south and Darfur, despite stability in the north. The report also highlighted continued humanitarian suffering in Darfur and South Sudan. And it raised questions over political campaigning ahead of the upcoming elections. Arab League officials meanwhile say they are planning to send a delegation to observe the elections in Sudan. The delegation will join other observers sent by the African Union, the UN and the European Union. "We believe that transparent and internationally observed elections would help considerably in promoting political stability in Sudan," said Samir Hosni, head of the African Desk at the Arab League. Hosni argued that making progress in the Doha talks that aim to strike a negotiated deal for power and wealth sharing between the Khartoum regime and leaders of Darfur's rebel groups would contribute to a positive political atmosphere ahead of elections. However, he did not seem optimistic that the hard-to-reach deal could come about in the next few weeks ahead of the 11 April elections. But "progress is still possible," he said. Arab, African and Western diplomats who follow the Doha talks are generally upbeat, especially in the wake of this month's détente between Khartoum and Nadjemena, the alleged firm supporter of the Darfur rebels. However, these same diplomats argue that it is difficult to get "all the rebel groups" to agree on a unified list of demands that would be put on the negotiating table. A Qatari diplomat said that the Doha talks are not just about managing relations between Darfur rebels and the Khartoum regime, but also about managing relations among the Darfur rebels. During a two-day visit to Darfur this week, Arab League Secretary-General Moussa pressed all parties concerned, especially Darfur Provisional Authority Chairman Mini Menawi, to push for a peaceful settlement in order to bring normality back for the people of Darfur. During talks held in Darfur with the chairman of the UN African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), Ibrahim Gambari, Moussa promised continued Arab support of the Doha talks. A declaration adopted by an extraordinary meeting of the Arab League Council in Darfur also promised continued support, both for the talks and reconstruction efforts on the ground. Tragic as the humanitarian crisis of the Darfurian people is and has been, it is not the most decisive element deciding the fate of Sudan, and especially its unity. Hosni acknowledges that relations between the north and south have not been encouraging. He also recognises that the peace deal signed by the two sides in 2003 to end a two- decade devastating civil war has not been implemented in perfect faith. This, Hosni says, has made unity unattractive to the people of the south, whose mood seems to be set on voting for secession in January 2011. It is not too late to turn this around, he insisted. In this context, intensive Arab efforts to promote development in the south would help in sending a positive message about Arab commitment to the people of the south. Next Monday, in Juba, capital of the south, Secretary-General Moussa will inaugurate along with Silva Kiir the first Arab Investment Conference in Southern Sudan. This conference will take a group of Arab -- mostly Egyptian -- businessmen to the south in search of investment opportunities that contribute to development. The government of the south will present the Arab businessmen with their priorities, mostly related to providing water and electricity and building roads. Next week's Juba conference comes only a few days after Moussa's latest trip to Darfur and Khartoum. It is part of what Sudanese officials acknowledge is a last ditch attempt by the Arab official to promote the territorial unity of Sudan endorsed in numerous Arab League resolutions. In Libya, at next month's Arab summit, the pan-Arab organisation is expected to express again collective Arab commitment to supporting the unity of Sudan. It is not clear, however, whether this commitment will be coupled with desperately needed development projects, especially in Darfur and the south, or if it will remain but words on paper. "We are still working to make unity possible, but we are realistically looking at measures to apply in the case that Sudan walks the path of division," said Sudanese Vice-President Ali Othman Taha during a recent visit to Cairo. (see p.9)
