The tide could finally be turning in favour of Iran's reformists. Azadeh Moaveni reports from Tehran Ever since the US's "war on terrorism" brought its military onto Iran's doorstep, reformists here have considered themselves exceptionally unlucky. First, reformists were instrumental in spearheading Iranian cooperation with the campaign in Afghanistan, only to be labelled by Washington as part of an "axis of evil". Then, they struggled to round up Al-Qa'eda fugitives streaming across the Pakistani border, only to be boldly confronted by rogue elements from within their own system, whose contrary objectives included keeping Al- Qa'eda under wraps, rather than under arrest. At first, the US's resolve to depose Saddam Hussein seemed like just another move that would make the reformists' job tougher at home. Thus, it has come as a considerable surprise that US action against Iraq is beginning to serve the purposes of Iran's reformists, rather than undermining them. "Conservatives think Iraq is just the first step in US plans to reshape the region," says a prominent reformist close to President Mohamed Khatami. "They finally have a reason to back the president -- self-preservation." For the first time since his election in 1997, Khatami has launched a major political initiative that stands a reasonable chance of success. Breaking with his characteristic passive stance, in the face of hard-line belligerence, Khatami announced a bold plan to expand his legislative power three weeks ago. Citing disappointment over how the hard-line judiciary has handled political trials, and his own frustration in finding his authority so thoroughly checked, Khatami has said he has no choice but to seek fresh powers. "My repeated warning on violations of the constitution have been ignored," he said, upon presenting two bills designed to remedy the deadlock. The more controversial of the two would curtail the ability of appointed clerical bodies to prescreen candidates for elections -- a right currently employed by the Guardian Council, a vetting body, to virtually hand- pick ballots. The second bill would secure the president's enhanced legal powers under the constitution. Reformists say they had intended to launch the proposals late last year, but put them on hold after President George W Bush's "axis of evil" speech sent shock waves through Tehran. Resurrected last month by Khatami, they are now the only chance for his failing movement to regain some of its steadily eroding public support, and to enact the reform promises that have gone mostly unfulfilled. The president's hard-line rivals promptly blasted the initiative, accusing him of doing America's bidding by tampering with the Islamic Republic's legal system. A column in Kayhan, the mouthpiece of Iran's hard-liners, declared it suspicious that the proposed reforms should correct the exact feature of Iran's electoral system criticised in the past by US officials. The attack came as no surprise -- ever since President Bush linked Iran to the "axis of evil", hard-liners have used the speech to hammer away at their rivals. Reformists, predictably, were furious at this attempt to undermine every pro-reform initiative by declaring it America-inspired. "Just because the US believes in God, and we believe in God, doesn't make belief in God American," retorted Mehdi Karrubi, the pro- reform speaker of Parliament. Ironically, though, it may be the "axis of evil" itself that gets President Khatami's proposals passed. Conservative and reformist sources alike have told Al-Ahram Weekly that they believe the president's controversial new legislation will be approved, if not directly by the Guardian Council, then through a compromise engineered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "It's natural for Khatami to want his powers extended," says Taha Hashemi, the editor of the conservative newspaper Entekhab, who is close to Khamenei. In the regional climate of one year ago, conservatives would have moved to obstruct the president's initiatives. But these days in Tehran, according to a Western diplomat here, the "political parametres have been transformed". Over the past couple of months, a fragile partnership has emerged between Khatami and moderate conservatives. As Washington's stance on Iraq has toughened, and Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan has failed to win Tehran any share in America's good graces, conservatives have become increasingly frightened. The attack on Iraq, they now suspect, is just a precursor to regime change in Tehran, courtesy of a Bush administration that has made no secret of its contempt for both of Iran's political factions. "Now that conservatives are convinced we're next in line," says a source close to a powerful, right- wing Ayatollah, "it's a golden opportunity for reformists to win concessions." Reformists intend to do just that. They know the popular support enjoyed by Khatami and his reformist allies is perhaps the only defence the Islamic Republic may have against US military designs. "After all, it's much harder to justify overthrowing a popular government than a dictatorship," says a senior government official. With conservatives rushing to hide for cover under the president's cloak of legitimacy, reformists now find themselves with a key tactical advantage. According to this official, if conservatives block his legislation, Khatami will resign, and the entire pro-reform majority in Parliament will step down with him. Some observers in Tehran suggest the president is bluffing, but even the prospect is worrisome enough to instill fear in the hearts of conservatives. "We've finally cornered them in a dead end," says the official. Iran's factional politics are a notorious breeding ground for alliances of convenience. It remains to be seen whether this nascent coalescing of centrist conservatives and moderate reformists will generate more than just temporary cooperation.
