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Before the fall
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 10 - 10 - 2002

Cairo is abuzz with foreign envoys as the region lurches ever closer to a crisis. Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty look at the latest
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While the US and Britain are trying to push through a new UN Security Council resolution authorising the automatic use of force against Baghdad if it refuses unrestricted access to UN weapons inspectors, the Quartet, which brings together the US, EU, UN and Russia is preparing a "road map" to bring the Palestinians and Israelis back to the negotiating table. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and EU foreign policy and security chief Javier Solana were in Cairo on Monday to discuss the looming war in Iraq, as well as the crisis in the Palestinian territories. Next week, the EU's External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten will be in town as part of a tour of the region, as will Russian envoy to the Middle East Vladimir Vdovin whose country opposes US strikes against Iraq.
Straw's tour of the region, which also included Jordan, Kuwait and Iran, aimed to sound out views in the region regarding the Iraqi crisis. Ahead of the tour, Straw said that he had chosen the countries because "each of these countries has a reason to fear Saddam [Hussein]." Meanwhile, London's increased involvement centres around lobbying support for the American and British hard-line against Iraq.
Since the standoff between Iraq and the US began, Cairo insisted that the issue should be handled in the UN, and called on the Iraqi government to allow the inspection teams back. "The best way to manage this crisis is through the UN and by consensus, not through unilateral decisions," said President Hosni Mubarak in an interview with Armed Forces magazine published on Sunday.
During his tour, Straw was to focus on ways of disarming Iraq, rather than the possibility of military strikes. Before leaving Cairo, Straw said that "the use of force is not inevitable." The British envoy said that Hussein was presented with a clear ultimatum to either dismantle his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, or have Western powers force him to do so. "Sometimes in order to secure a peaceful outcome, you have to make it clear that if we don't get a peaceful outcome, force has to be used," he said. US President George W Bush said on Monday that Baghdad could only avoid war by "declaring or destroying" all its weapons of mass destruction, ending "support for terrorism" and ceasing to "persecute civilians".
It is the fate of these very civilians that Mubarak expressed concern about in the Armed Forces interview. The president cautioned that "an invasion of Iraq will cause many problems within Iraq, and possibly ignite a devastating civil war in the country." He also warned of the danger posed by the responses of other populations in the region if Iraq is attacked. "The real danger lies in the reaction anticipated from the people of the region in response to a strike against Iraq," Mubarak told the magazine. "This is something no one can control or ignore."
At the same time, Mubarak said he has faith that Bush "is capable of evaluating the situation objectively and recognising the dangers at hand. The issue must be managed with great wisdom, and we are trying to convince everyone to avoid causing the situation to explode."
During Straw's meetings with officials in Cairo, who included Mubarak, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, the British foreign minister expounded on the various aspects of the situation regarding Iraq, and was cautioned against the dangers of war for the region and the world. After meeting with Mubarak, Straw told journalists that Cairo and London agreed on the "necessity to have this resolved by peaceful means. We want to see the disarmament of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and an end to its defiance of the United Nations."
Maher voiced Egypt's opposition to the stances by Washington and London including a provision in the proposed Security Council resolution calling for ousting Saddam Hussein. Referring to Hussein's regime, Maher denied that Egypt advised "any regime" to abdicate from power, saying that "it is not our business to tell any ruler to step down." Talking to reporters with Straw by his side, Maher said these leaders "are in power by the will of their people, and they [the people] are the only ones who can ask them to step down." He added that all involved "have to work on the basis of the assumption that the Iraqi government is willing, and will continue to be willing, [to cooperate]".
Mubarak said in the magazine interview that it was "unacceptable that a power or a group of countries attempt to forcefully oust a ruling regime in a sovereign state and interfere in its internal affairs." He added that the repercussions of striking Iraq "will not only be felt within Iraq, but throughout the entire region. Striking Iraq will not achieve any gains." Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa expressed similar sentiments, telling reporters after his meeting with Straw that "there is no urgent need to launch a military action against Iraq." Moussa had warned last month that a war on Iraq would "open the gates of hell in the Middle East and beyond".
Mubarak told Armed Forces that attacking Iraq when "silence" reigns concerning developments in the Palestinian territories could only exacerbate tensions. "It would give rise to accusations of double standards which would provoke popular discontent and cause a loss of international credibility," he said.
During talks with Straw, Maher asked for Britain's help in halting the crisis in the territories and relaunching talks between the Palestinians and Israelis. With Mubarak, Straw discussed British Prime Minister Tony Blair's call last week for a relaunch of negotiations between the two sides and the creation of a Palestinian state. Discussions only touched upon Blair's suggestion of holding an international conference, "although it is not an urgent matter", said Maher. Straw expressed his concern over Israel's attack on Palestinian civilians during Monday's raid in Gaza, adding that the peace process must be propelled forward.
But Mubarak has little faith that Sharon would be willing to participate sincerely in such a process. He told Armed Forces magazine that it was clear that since Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government came to power "it had a faulty plan based on the use of military force to guarantee security." He continued, saying Sharon's government has been exploiting international conditions to create situations that "put the peace process back to square one". The Israeli government has done this, Mubarak said, by "jumping on the bandwagon" of the international war on terror through characterising the legitimate Palestinian resistance to the occupation as terrorism; by using excessive military force against the Palestinians; and attempting to weaken Palestinian leadership. "All of this aims to pave the way for the reoccupation of the Palestinian territories," opined Mubarak. "They [Israel] want to take the region back to a state of war, tension and instability."
On Tuesday, Cairo condemned Israel's incursion into Gaza the previous night. Maher told reporters he did not believe Israel's claims that none of those targeted in Monday's attack were civilians. "The world should ask itself about the goals of this operation," Maher said. "It is a challenge facing the entire world, and it should face it decisively and force Israel to put an end to these policies." A day earlier, Maher had welcomed Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's decision to declare East Jerusalem the capital of an independent Palestine. Arafat's decision came in response to US Congress's bill which includes a stipulation that Jerusalem be recognised as Israel's capital. "It was necessary to confirm that the issue [of Jerusalem] cannot be subject to foreign decisions," Maher said on Monday. "Instead, it is part of a [peaceful] resolution in which East Jerusalem is recognised as the capital of Palestine."
Mubarak told Armed Forces magazine that "peace must be comprehensive, include all the parties, cover all issues, without omitting or postponing any aspects." He added that if Israel was "truly concerned about its people, it must respect the rights and dignity of the Arabs instead of continuing its policies of oppression and terror".
Mubarak said that Egypt's insistence on a just and comprehensive peace "does not mean that we are afraid of going to war. In fact, the peace we believe in is based on the ability to dissuade anyone from neglecting their commitments or sabotaging our security and national interests." He said in the interview, which was published on the occasion of the 29th anniversary of the 6 October War, that the military is charged with protecting Egypt's international borders, airspace and shores against any aggression. "Egypt knows that it must maintain strong armed forces capable of protecting stability, development and peace."
But as events unfold, Cairo is certain to continue relying on its diplomatic rather than military strengths to bring the region back from the edge of the abyss.


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