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Last chance for calm
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 11 - 2002

Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty report on Cairo's efforts to convince Iraq that full co-operation with UN weapons inspectors is the only way to go
Mohamed El-Barad'i, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was in Cairo this week, reassuring top Egyptian officials of the impartiality of the UN inspection team in Iraq, and urging Arab leaders to encourage Iraq to co-operate with the UN. Inspectors from both the IAEA and the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) have been mandated by UN Security Council Resolution 1441 to investigate Iraq's alleged stockpile of weapons of mass destruction.
In meetings with President Hosni Mubarak, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, El- Barad'i offered accounts of his recent visit to Iraq and explained what the work of UN inspectors would entail.
Egyptian officials expressed their willingness to work on convincing Baghdad to facilitate the inspectors' work, asking for guarantees in return that the inspectors will conduct their work objectively and professionally.
While Arabs have called for Arab inspectors to be part of the UN teams, the IAEA chief stressed that "neutrality is not linked to nationality". In fact, experts from Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon are expected to take part in the inspections. Also part of the team is an unnamed Egyptian woman employed by IAEA.
Responding to reporters' enquiries about the impartiality of the teams, El-Barad'i defended both the IAEA and UNMOVIC, saying, "our work is always objective and unbiased." He also said that inspectors would not be aiming to catalyse a "brain drain" of Iraqi scientists, if these scientists end up being sent abroad for questioning. The interrogation of Iraqi scientists, he said, will be "voluntary, and in co- operation with the Iraqi government". Baghdad has been reassured, according to El-Barad'i, that the inspection teams are not there for "any other purpose" than to investigate Iraq's stockpile of weapons of mass destruction. "If any team member does otherwise, they will be fired immediately." He told reporters that this phase of inspections will not be a re-run of the 1998 inspections, participants of which were later accused of being spies working on behalf of the CIA.
On another front, El-Barad'i suggested to Mubarak that over the past three months, there has been a "positive" change in the international community's attitude towards Iraq. According to El-Barad'i, prior to UN Security Council Resolution 1441 there was a lot of talk about going to war. Today, the tenor of discussions leans more towards reaching a peaceful solution via inspections. "War has become a last resort," El-Barad'i told reporters after the meeting, "not the first resort." The inspections, he said, can be a "substitute for", rather than a "prelude to", war against Iraq.
After meeting with Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher, El-Barad'i told reporters that he discussed how Arab countries, and Egypt in particular, can "play an active and vital role in helping and encouraging Iraq to fully co- operate", so that the inspectors end up submitting "positive reports to the Security Council". Maher said that the IAEA chief assured him that "the inspections will be conducted in a manner that will reveal the truth."
On this matter, El-Barad'i warned that the UN team "will not deal lightly with any breaches in the inspectors' work", which could last months or years. The inspection team will present its first report to the UN Security Council on 27 January 2003. "If Iraq does not co- operate, then the repercussions will be grave, not only for Iraq but the region as a whole," warned El-Barad'i. Despite all the "positive" indicators, he cautioned, "we should not fool ourselves -- there is still tension and the Security Council insists that this is Iraq's last chance. Using [military] force is still an option."
Belgium's Foreign Minister Jean-Louis Michel, who also met Mubarak on Monday, echoed the same concerns. "We must continue to urge Iraq to work with the inspection teams and avoid making trouble," he said. After speaking with Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher, Michel seemed optimistic that a peaceful resolution was at hand. "I think if Iraq perfectly respects what is asked of it, and implements with good will and honesty, there is a really good chance," that war can be avoided. "We have to ask Iraq to grasp this last chance."
Belgium is asking Egypt to help keep tensions to a minimum. "I know of the important role played [by Egypt in trying to convince Iraq to respond] positively to international demands," Michel said, referring to Egypt's negotiations with Iraqi officials on the fringes of the UN General Assembly session in September.
Michel also explained that Belgium refused to host a meeting of Iraqi opposition figures because Security Council Resolution 1441 does not mention regime change in Iraq. "We should not confuse resolution [1441] with regime change in Iraq," noted Michel, "and we wanted to make our position clear."
Mubarak also met with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal, who conveyed a message from Crown Prince Abdullah on inter-Arab co- operation. Al-Faisal said that Iraq is "interacting" well with Security Council Resolution 1441. "We hope that Iraq's co-operation continues as the inspection teams carry out their work," Al-Faisal told reporters.
Maher, meanwhile, also met with the Iraqi ambassador to Cairo, Mohsen Khalil, in order to tell Baghdad that the onus was on Iraq to offer its full and unconditional co-operation in order to prevent a military operation from taking place. "I told him that we want Iraq to co- operate with the inspections in complete transparency and seriousness, to avoid any problems which could then be used against it." Maher said the Iraqi ambassador confirmed his regime's commitment to full co-operation.


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