Hunger stalks Ethiopia again bringing to mind the devastating 1984 famine, writes Gamal Nkrumah Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zennawi likened his country's experiencing of periodic famines to "living through a recurring nightmare". In Ethiopia, millions of lives are once again under threat of famine on a scale reminiscent of the devastating 1984 famine, when an estimated one million perished, literally starving to death. Ethiopia's capacity to cope with the famine is severely hampered by its obligation to repay a crippling foreign debt which accounts for 10 per cent of state revenue. Exports of the country's chief foreign exchange earner, coffee, are also expected to dwindle. Nevertheless, the Ethiopian government and humanitarian relief agencies are cautiously optimistic that, given sufficient international emergency assistance, disaster can be averted. "It is too early to use the word famine. We prefer to call it a drought affecting many regions of Ethiopia that has lead to serious food shortages," Wagdi Othman, WFP spokesman in Addis Ababa, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "In 2002, below-average Belg, or secondary rains (February to May) and delayed and erratic Meher, or main rains (June- September) have led to widespread food shortages in Ethiopia," he said. But Othman warned that the impact of the current drought is expected to go beyond the immediate needs of 2002, as its effect on the food security status of the population in 2003 will be significant. "Experts estimate reductions of cereal production to be about 15 per cent which, given the average rainfall during the Meher season, is 1.5 million tons, potentially devastating in a country that already has a food deficit," he said. He added that approximately 75 per cent of the population in Ethiopia subsists on their own Meher harvest for the majority of their cereal consumption and that the remaining population rely indirectly on the production from this harvest. According to the WFP office in Addis Ababa, the worst affected areas in Ethiopia are the remote, arid, eastern reaches of the country. "The lack of sufficient rainfall during the Belg has failed to replenish water sources in the pastoral areas of Afar, northeastern Oromiya, and the northern Somali Regions." Pastoral nomads, Othman explained, have been increasingly affected, over the last few months, from significant losses of livestock, decreased food availability and accessibility, malnutrition, and water shortages. "Due to the poor performance of the Meher rains, food shortages are also affecting agro- pastoral and agricultural areas, particularly in the lowlands and midlands of Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP), Tigray, and Amhara Regions." Humanitarian aid workers say that the immediate cause of the current Ethiopian food shortages is natural and drought-related, as opposed to man-made. "This drought is mainly due to erratic and poor rainfall. Chronic food insecurity is endemic in Ethiopia," said Othman. He explained that Ethiopia is among the most poverty-stricken countries in the world, where the majority of people have no reserves to help them cope with even one poor harvest. He applauded the Ethiopian government's efforts to ensure long-term food security. "Food security programming and other sustainable development initiatives have been given a high priority. Unfortunately the recovery period since the last major drought has not been sufficient," he added. The Ethiopian federal government, for its part, has mobilised resources in conjunction with regional and local authorities in order to try and avert disaster or limit potential damage to crops, livestock and save people's lives. Ethiopia's ambassador to Egypt, Girma Amare, told the Weekly that the Ethiopian government has set up a Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Commission, headed by Simeon Metchale, to deal with this difficult situation. In this respect, Ethiopia has embarked on a radical new programme of building small dams across the country and creating water reservoirs, as an answer to its food problems. Ambassador, Girma Amare, conceded that Ethiopia lacks technical expertise, know-how and the necessary funds available for an ambitious programme of micro-dam construction. He said that Ethiopia is also collaborating closely with Egypt and Sudan to develop better methods of rain-water conservation. Recurrent droughts in Ethiopia negatively impact the water levels of the Blue Nile which in turn reduces the supply of water to downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan. More than 80 per cent of Egypt's Nile water supplies originate from the Blue Nile, in the Ethiopian Highlands. Ethiopia, unlike Egypt, is still utterly dependent on rainfall for water and agriculture. However, there is an increasing realisation that the country must now explore new methods of irrigation and water conservation to reduce dependency on rainfall. "With low rainfall levels affecting the rural poor in particular, both sustainable solutions as well as humanitarian food relief are needed so that people can have the means to better confront and even prevent the negative effects of drought, flooding or other natural calamities," Othman said. "Though efforts continue to be made to store water in dams and micro-catchments, this is not on a scale that can supply enough water to counter a major drought. Soil and water conservation measures initiated by [Ethiopia's] Ministry of Agriculture with support from the international community have improved water retention and reduced soil loss. This is boosting yields in good years and improving chances of crop survival in poorer years," Othman said. However, he noted that when rainfall turns out to be much less than normal, crop failures can be widespread, as they were this year. The WFP in Ethiopia says that the immediate situation is under control. "Recently confirmed contributions have largely covered the relief food needs for November and December 2002," Othman told the Weekly. However, he added that, "the needs for the first three months of 2003 are expected to be at least 300,000 tons of cereals. The confirmed contributions for 2003 so far are only 70,000 tons, so there is a large gap to be filled. For 2003, 1.5 to 2 million tons are expected to be required. Further international food donations are urgently sought to cover the substantial needs of the first quarter of 2003." According to Othman, international aid agencies, local NGOs and the government, relief organisations are working hand in hand to assess the situation, prepare responses, provide support for the victims of the drought, mobilise international donations and help distribute them throughout Ethiopia. However he was careful to distinguish between food shortages and famine on the scale of the 1984 tragedy. The main problem exacerbating the crisis in Ethiopia is the country's abject poverty. Nobel prize-winning economist Amartya Sen has pointed out the close correlation between poverty and famine. Food emergencies are not necessarily linked to the capacity of a country to produce enough to feed its people, Sen said. Ethiopia's 65 million people are among the world's poorest. Ranked 171st out of 174 countries in the 2000 United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI), Ethiopia has the world's highest incidence of malnutrition and one of the lowest primary school enrollment levels. The world must take notice of Ethiopia's chronic problems. Cartoon by Osama Qassim
