After naming Turkey's new premier, Islamists are ready to run the secular country. Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara Click to view caption Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has officially asked Abdullah Gul, the deputy chairman of the Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) to head a new government. The request, made last Saturday, came in just under two weeks after the JDP swept to power in an electoral landslide that produced the first Islamist majority parliamentary majority in Turkey's history. The JDP won 34.2 per cent of the popular vote in the 3 November elections, giving it 363 seats in Turkey's 550-member unicameral parliament. The social democratic Republican People's Party (RPP) finished second with 19.3 per cent of the vote and 178 seats. The remaining nine seats were won by independents. The JDP's election campaign was led by the party chairman, the charismatic 48- year-old Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But Erdogan was banned from running for parliament himself after being convicted in 1998 for allegedly inciting the erosion of secularism by reciting a poem which mixed religious and military imagery. Under Turkish law the prime minister has to be chosen from among the members of parliament. Last Friday Erdogan visited President Sezer and asked him to name Gul as prime minister. The result is a bizarre situation in which Turkey now effectively has two prime ministers. Although it is Gul who has the title of premier, Erdogan is still expected to dictate policy, but from behind the scenes. Significantly, on Saturday morning as Gul visited the presidential palace to be formally asked to form a government, Erdogan held a press conference to announce the JDP's political programme for its first 12 months in power. Most commentators expect Gul to stay on as premier only as long it takes to pass the necessary legal amendments to lift the ban on Erdogan. "Abdullah Gul knows that Erdogan is destined to be Turkey's prime minister. He is clever enough to know his limits," said journalist Nazli Ilicak, who in 1999 served alongside Gul as a member of parliament for the Islamist Virtue Party (VP), before both she and the party were banned for supporting the right of women to wear headscarves in public institutions. But it is still unclear how long it will take for the JDP to overturn the ban on Erdogan and stage a by-election to enable him to enter parliament or whether, having once tasted power, Gul will be prepared to step aside in favour of Erdogan. In public at least, Gul maintains that he will not be a caretaker prime minister or a mere proxy for Erdogan. Unlike Erdogan, whose only experience in public office was four years -- albeit very successful ones -- as mayor of Istanbul, Gul has considerable international experience, has been a member of parliament for 11 years and even served as a minister for a year in the mid-1990s. A soft-spoken 52-year-old UK-educated economist, who spent several years working at the Islamic Development Bank, Gul speaks both English and Arabic and would appear to be the ideal candidate to strengthen Turkey's often strained relations not only with the West but also with the Islamic world. Gul is also very popular domestically, even amongst secularists who tend to see him as moderate, honest and trustworthy. Although he is a devout Muslim, Gul has never tried to exploit his personal piety for political gain -- unlike many other of the leaders of the Turkish Islamist movement. Speaking on Saturday after his appointment as prime minister, Gul downplayed suggestions that the JDP might try to introduce a radical Islamist agenda. "Our most important priority will be the economy," he said. "Turkish people have suffered a lot in recent years." Gul's first cabinet, which was unveiled on Monday, appeared to indicate that, initially at least, the JDP will shy away from introducing a radical Islamist agenda. Almost all of the 24 new ministers were drawn from the moderate wing of the party and included one woman, Tourism Minister Guldal Aksit. Gul's main priority appears to have been to reassure the secular establishment rather than chose ministers who represent the views of the party's grassroots. For example, he appointed Mehmet Vecdi Gonul, a career bureaucrat well known to the military, as defence minister. While the head of the foreign ministry, traditionally a bastion of the secular establishment, is Yasar Yakis, a retired diplomat. However, the appointments also suggest that, while maintaining Turkey's relations with the West, Gul is likely to try to boost ties with the Arab world. Yakis, like Gul, is an Arabic speaker and formerly served both in the Organisation of the Islamic Conference and as Turkish ambassador to Cairo in the late 1990s. While Kursad Tuzmen, a former bureaucrat who has been made state minister for the economy, vigorously lobbied to boost trade with Turkey's Muslim neighbours when he was head of the Foreign Trade Undersecretariat. But, although they may have little reason to fear Gul or his new cabinet, many Turkish secularists, particularly in the country's powerful military, still harbour suspicions of Erdogan. A radical Islamist firebrand in his youth, Erdogan, since his conviction in 1998 has disavowed his past calls for the introduction of Shari'a in Turkey, insisting that he has changed. But he remains notoriously evasive when responding to questions about the future of secularism in Turkey. "It is only a tactical change," said a source close to the military. "We think his ultimate goal is still to overthrow secularism. The only difference is that now he is a little more patient." The two weeks since the JDP's election victory have also highlighted Erdogan's lack of experience on the international stage. He has already twice had to issue retractions after making contradictory statements about the JDP's position on the Cyprus problem. Compared with Gul's statesmanlike assurance, a repeat of such gaffes is likely to sow the seeds of doubt even amongst Erdogan's supporters. Perhaps more critically, Erdogan urgently needs the parliamentary immunity that would come with being an MP to protect him against a string of court cases being prepared by secularist public prosecutors, ranging from charges of anti-secular propaganda to allegations of corruption when he was mayor of Istanbul from 1994-1998. Both Erdogan and the prosecutors are aware that even if the cases do not end in conviction or imprisonment, the mere airing of such allegations in a courtroom would tarnish his reputation as a moderate, honest politician and erode his public popularity. Related stories: A new beginning? 7 - 13 November 2002
