Opinion polls in Turkey suggest that the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party will win a large amount of votes, much to the chagrin of the secularists, reports Gareth Jenkins from Istanbul Turkey heads to the polls this weekend with the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) expected to emerge once again as the largest party in parliament. The latest opinion polls suggest that the moderate Islamist JDP will win over 35 per cent of the national vote, which will probably be enough to return the party to power with a reduced majority. In May, the JDP announced an early general election three months ahead of schedule after a confrontation with Turkey's secular establishment, particularly the country's powerful military, over the JDP's choice of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to succeed the incumbent Ahmet Necdet Sezer as Turkey's next president. Secularists feared that the appointment of Gul would enable the JDP to assume complete control over the state apparatus. Gul's wife also wears an Islamic headscarf. Many secularists regarded the prospect of a headscarfed first lady as an assault on the principle of secularism which is enshrined in the Turkish constitution. However, the main opposition parties have based their election campaigns on questioning not the JDP's commitment to secularism but its nationalist credentials, particularly its failure to curb the violent campaign being waged by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The result has been a further increase in an already rampant Turkish nationalism as opposition parties have extended their attacks on the government to include what it alleges are its close relations with the EU, the US and foreign corporations. Under Turkish law, seats in the country's 550-member unicameral parliament are divided between parties that receive more than 10 per cent of the national vote. In the 2002 elections only two parties crossed the ten per cent threshold. As a result, even though it only won a little over one-third of the national vote, the JDP took nearly two-thirds of the seats in parliament. The remaining third went to the nationalist Republican People's Party (RPP), which won 19 per cent of the vote. While nearly half of the votes in the 2002 election were not represented in parliament at all. The key to whether or not the JDP can retain its parliamentary majority after the 22 July polls thus lies not in its overall vote, which opinion polls suggest will rise, but how many other parties manage to cross the 10 per cent threshold. The latest opinion polls indicate that both the RPP and the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action Party (NAP) will enter parliament but that the other parties will fall short of the 10 per cent needed. Although the RPP and NAP are unlikely to be able to form a government by themselves, they are expected to win sufficient seats to reduce the JDP's parliamentary majority. Although if either the NAP or the RPP put in a strong late showing or if a fourth party succeeds in entering parliament, the JDP would almost certainly fall short of an overall majority and be forced to form a coalition government. Even if they do badly in this weekend's polls, Turkey's political parties could soon have another chance to prove themselves. Under the current system, the Turkish president is elected by parliament and at least two-thirds of the MPs have to participate in the vote. This means that, barring an unexpected JDP landslide, opposition parties will be able to block the government's candidate for president by simply staying away from parliament. Electing a successor to President Sezer will be the first task of the new parliament which convenes after this weekend's election. If parliament cannot agree on a candidate, it will have to dissolve itself and once again call fresh elections, probably in October when a constitutional amendment to elect the president by popular vote is due to go to a referendum. Privately, several leading members of the JDP are already suggesting that, if the opposition parties do not accept the party's candidate for president, they should dissolve parliament, hold fresh elections at the same time as the constitutional amendment on the presidency and then have their candidate elected by popular vote. "Whatever happens, we'll have the final say," commented a leading JDP official. "We are confident of getting a majority on 22 July. But if it is not enough to have our candidate elected to the presidency, then we'll find another way."
