Turkish government actions unite opposition groups, reports Gareth Jenkins in Istanbul Turkish political parties on the centre left and centre right have responded to the recent series of mass rallies by uniting in opposition to the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) as the political spectrum becomes dangerously polarised between Islamists and secularists. Tens of thousands of secularist Turks gathered in the Black Sea port of Samsun on Sunday in the latest in a series of rallies to protest against the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) and what they see as its plans to erode the principle of secularism enshrined in the Turkish constitution. The rallies took on an added meaning after the Turkish military intervened on 27 April to try to prevent Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul from becoming the country's next president, a move which forced the JDP government to call early general elections on 22 July. Last week the organisers of the rallies announced that the protest in Samsun would be the last of its kind and that they would now await the results of general elections. Last week there were signs that at least one of the goals of the rallies had been realised. For the last 25 years, the Turkish political spectrum has been fragmented primarily between supporters of powerful individuals rather than on ideological grounds. Speakers at the rallies had repeatedly called for secularist parties to unite against the JDP. Earlier this month the leaders of the two main centre-right parties, the True Path Party (TPP) and the Motherland Party (MP) announced that they were merging. Last week the tiny Democratic Left Party (DLP) reached an agreement with the main opposition Republican People's Party (RPP). Both the rallies and the resultant mergers have been dismissed by the AKP. "Putting 40 rotten eggs together doesn't make a good one," said Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. Privately, JDP officials remain confident that they will win the 22 July elections. "The only question is how big our majority will be," said one JDP official. At the last elections in November 2002 only two parties, the JDP and the RPP, succeeded in crossing the 10 per cent threshold for representation in parliament. As a result, the JDP took two thirds of the seats even though it had won only one third of the popular vote. There are currently no reliable public opinion polls but most observers expect that the merger of the TPP and MP will enable the resultant new party to cross the 10 per cent threshold together with the RPP and the JDP, which will almost certainly once again be the largest party in parliament; the only question is whether it will win enough seats to form a government. The key is likely to be the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action Party (NAP). In the 2002 elections it won 8.4 per cent of the national vote. Like the JDP it draws most of its support from the poorer, less-educated proportion of the population. Over the last two years there has been a rapid rise in an aggressive, and often violent, nationalism in Turkey. But NAP leader Devlet Bahceli has been largely invisible and his lacklustre public image has conspicuously failed to capture the popular imagination. It is currently unclear whether the rise in nationalism will result in a large enough transfer of votes from the JDP to the NAP to enable it to cross the 10 per cent threshold at the 22 July elections. But if four parties are represented in parliament, the JDP will probably lose its majority. Even if the JDP is returned to power with a majority of seats, it is very unlikely to win a majority of the popular vote. JDP officials often appear to fail to understand the difference between being the largest party and representing the majority of the people. "If we have a majority in parliament, then we have the support of the mass of the people. It is as simple as that," said one high- ranking JDP member of parliament. But the anti-JDP rallies of the last two months have demonstrated not only that there are many people who are opposed to the JDP but -- for the first time in recent Turkish history -- that they are prepared to take action. At the rally in Samsun, Turkan Saylan, the chairwoman of the Association for Contemporary Living, one of the main organisers of the protest, declared: "we are opposed to both Sharia law and military coups." But there is also little doubt that, regardless of whether or not the protesters represent -- as they claim -- the majority of the population, there are several powerful forces prepared to support them from behind the scenes, including a substantial proportion of the Turkish community and the staunchly secularist Turkish military. Yet the JDP appears unaware of the dangers of what appears to be a deepening social polarisation. Privately, JDP officials insist that, if they win the general election, they will once again try to have Gul appointed as president. In recent weeks, the JDP has pushed through a number of legislative changes to make it more difficult for candidates representing predominantly Kurdish parties to win seats in parliament. Yet the sense of exclusion and a feeling that they are treated as a subject people rather than equal partners in the Turkish state have long been two of the main factors fuelling separatist Kurdish violence. Even if the JDP believes that the fears of the secularists are exaggerated, the number of people who have taken to the streets in recent months is evidence that the fears need to be addressed, not ignored or dismissed. At a time when there still has been no concerted attempt to solve the Kurdish problem, the country cannot afford another deep division in society. But at the moment the JDP and the secularists who have been taking to the streets appear to be moving further apart, not coming together.
