Yasser Arafat's room for manoeuvre is shrinking by the day, writes Graham Usher from Jerusalem With the region teetering on the brink of war, Yasser Arafat is peering into the abyss of the day after war breaks out, cognizant that there will be many in the next Israeli government and some in the present American administration who view his future in the same declining shadow cast by Saddam Hussein. "Two dictators for whom the only prescription is their elimination," said one Israeli defence official. Like Saddam, Arafat's sole strategy is survival. Unlike the Iraqi dictator, he is basically (albeit reluctantly) bowing to every demand made of him. This week he expressed his "unreserved" agreement to the roadmap drawn up by the so-called Middle Quartet (the US, UN, EU and Russia), including their ultimatum to appoint a Palestinian prime minister. He also authorised his Fatah movement to again press upon Hamas the urgency of agreeing to a comprehensive Palestinian cease-fire at the next round of faction talks, tentatively scheduled to reconvene in Cairo sometime in the last week of February. But the chances of this exit going anywhere are diminishing by the day. In reprisal for a Hamas roadside bomb that left four Israeli soldiers dead and their tank a smouldering wreck in Gaza on 15 February, the Israeli army killed 20 Palestinians in four days, including at least eight fighters from Hamas military arm, Izzudin Al-Qassam. The latest retaliation came on Wednesday. Forty Israeli tanks -- backed by bulldozers and helicopters -- entered the Sharjaiyah neighbourhood in Gaza City. Eleven Palestinians were killed in the invasion, including, say Palestinian sources, three civilians buried under the rubble of a house that had collapsed after the army dynamited two metal-works. The army said 10 of the victims were armed and "killed by precise shooting". The 11th was a Hamas activist who, with explosives strapped to his body, charged an approaching tank column. He died when his load was detonated by army fire. Twenty-seven Palestinians were injured in the raid. There were no Israeli casualties. Hamas had already vowed revenge "inside the Zionist entity" after the earlier killings. Following this latest assault the line became even more adamant. "We know Israel has what it takes to hurt Palestinians and it knows we have what it takes to retaliate," said Hamas political leader, Moussa Abu-Marzuq, on Wednesday. As for a unilateral Palestinian cease-fire, "we cannot talk about a peaceful Intifada while the Israeli enemy is shelling Palestinians with planes," he snapped. In the absence of a cease-fire, Arafat's sole road to salvation now lies along the map charted for him by the Quartet. He agreed to the appointment of a prime minister, pending meetings of the Palestinian Legislative Council and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Central Council to make the "necessary changes" to the Palestinian Constitution. The constitution, currently in the draft stage, envisages a presidential regime, with power still largely concentrated in the hands of the head of state. The Quartet wants a more prime ministerial system, with Arafat effectively giving up most of his executive powers to a cabinet headed by an "empowered" prime minister. Meetings between the Quartet and a Palestinian Authority (PA) delegation in London on Wednesday and Thursday were the first attempts to merge these seemingly incompatible visions. Nor is it clear who the prime minister will be. The favoured choice of the Quartet, PA Finance Minister Salem Fayyad, ruled himself out as a contender. "I will not be a candidate in any kind of framework [that] weakens the leadership of the PA, the elected leadership of Yasser Arafat," he said in London on Tuesday. Arafat's de facto second-in- command in the PLO, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen), has expressed "reluctance" to accept the post, largely, say Palestinian sources, because he wants to know what powers it will command. But there is no mystery as to why Arafat accepted a position he has spent the last six months resisting. The Quartet forcefully warned him that unless he started to make "credible" reforms in his regime, he would be heading for a fate similar to that which the Americans and British are preparing for Saddam Hussein. He was also told by figures in the Palestinian leadership that the changes must be made now -- ahead of any war on Iraq. Abbas, in particular, is convinced that Israel will exploit the war to reoccupy Gaza and bury the last remains of the PA. Other Palestinian leaders see a direct relationship between Palestinian moves to reform and the massive Israeli offensive currently going on in Gaza. It is an Israeli attempt to "foil the diplomatic efforts in London and dialogue between the Palestinian factions that have contributed to restoring a noticeable calm in recent weeks," said PA Labour Minister Ghassan Khatib on Wednesday. "The escalation poses a challenge to the Quartet because it shows Israel's intentions to strike the Palestinians even harder as the war on Iraq gets closer". It remains to be seen whether that challenge will be met, and regardless of whether the fast disintegrating Palestinian regime has a presidential cast or a "prime ministerial" one.
