The road to survival

Yasser Arafat has opted for the continuation of his regime, not the Intifada. His people may not be convinced, writes Graham Usher from Jerusalem
On Sunday Yasser Arafat pronounced on the three demands the world has made on him. "I today reiterate the complete and immediate cessation of all military activities, especially suicide attacks which we have always condemned," he said in a televised speech to his people marking the end of Ramadan.
He gave notice he would fulfill a second by warning he would "punish all planners and executors [of these activities] and hunt down the violators." And he moved, symbolically, on the third, reaffirming that he had already outlawed all Palestinian militias that "carry out terrorist activities" and closing 30 or so institutions linked to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, most of them charities, one a government licensed Islamist newspaper, Al-Risala.
In taking the road of survival Arafat has heeded the counsel of the "Oslo wing" of the Palestinian leadership, particularly his young security lieutenants in Gaza and the West Bank, Mohamed Dahlan and Jibril Al-Rajoub, both of whom were involved in drafting the speech.
They have long argued the real aim of Ariel Sharon's offensive in the occupied territories is not the "war against terrorism" but the destruction of the Palestinian Authority and the territorial and political "achievements" created by the Oslo process.
It is, therefore, in the "supreme national interest" that the PA continues to exist as an internationally recognised body, even if the price is to end the "armed Intifada" with nothing but a litany of losses -- human, material and political.
They would prefer the ceasefire to be agreed with all the Palestinian factions, "the solid ground of national unity on which we stand," as expressed by Arafat. But they are ready to impose order by force. Arafat, finally, appears to agree with them. "We will allow only one authority on this land" and all must "respect its decisions," he said, staring darkly over his reading glasses.
What good has it done him? True to his new definition of the Palestinian leader as "irrelevant" Sharon admitted he had not read the speech. Neither had his army. The next day it assassinated a Hamas activist in Hebron, shot dead a PA policeman in Nablus and killed a 13-year old Palestinian child in the Gaza Strip. The boy had raised a plastic rifle too close to an Israeli checkpoint in Khan Yunis.
The US was only a little more enthusiastic. "Chairman Arafat spoke constructive words, but what is important is that they be followed up by concrete action. That's what will be measured and that's what the president will wait and see," mused White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.
But it did prod Sharon into ordering his intelligence forces to resume "security contacts" with their PA counterparts on Wednesday. "The decision [of irrelevance] related to Arafat, not everyone in the PA," commented one Israeli government official.
The Europeans assumed their usual role as soft cop, praising Arafat's speech as an "opportunity" to end the violence and quietly urging Israel to lift the sieges on Palestinian territories, withdraw the tanks from Palestinian towns and end the assassinations of Palestinian militants. Coincidentally or otherwise, Israel ended the air strikes on PA security and other installations on Sunday.
But perhaps Arafat's hardest task will be to convince his people that the basic trade-off -- his regime for the Intifada -- is worth it. He has yet to convince the fighters, whose guerrilla war flared sporadically in the West Bank and Gaza no less after the speech than before it. Nor has he persuaded the factions, other than his own Fatah movement, and not all of them.
Islamic Jihad and the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine all rejected the ceasefire, vowing to continue the armed resistance "as long as the occupation exists." The most eloquent rebuttal came from Hamas, now unquestionably Arafat's main rival in the battle for Palestinian hearts and minds.
"Giving the occupation the right to exercise aggression and preventing the Palestinian people from defending themselves is a lost formula that will never be accepted," ran an official reply to Arafat's speech from Hamas on Monday.
And who is currently closer to the people's heart? A poll conducted after the suicide operations in Jerusalem and Haifa but before the speech would seem to supply the answer.
It showed 80 per cent of Palestinians supporting the continuation of the Intifada, 64 per cent in favour of suicide operations, 57 per cent against any ceasefire declaration and 71 per cent who saw the arrest of "Intifada activists" as "unjustifiable."
It also showed the combined popularity of Hamas and Islamic Jihad outstripping Fatah and barely 24 per cent of Palestinians "trusting" Arafat's leadership. Twelve per cent trusted the leadership of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, Hamas' spiritual leader.
This is not to say Arafat's leadership should be written off. It is yet to be proven whether he still commands the sway over his people to isolate dissidents among them and the clout with the US to force out of Israel the necessary political gains to make it worth his while to do so. Or whether an Israel led by Sharon and an Intifada led by Hamas will decide for him.
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