Is the US planning for a regional overhaul? Soha Abdelaty looks into the Bush administration's reform agenda for Egypt Next Saturday in Jordan at the World Economic Forum, US Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to launch a proposal for a Middle East Free Trade Area by the year 2013. The proposal is considered to be part of a larger agenda the US has in store for the Middle East, which began with Iraq's "liberation" and then moved on to instating a new leadership in Palestine. For other countries in the Middle East, it is a package of reforms, known as the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), which outline key economic, political and social adjustments for the countries of the region to undertake. The initiative, launched last December by Powell, stems from US President George Bush's administration's desire to channel future US assistance to key areas that it believes serve the ultimate goal of economic development. The key areas are educational reform, economic reform, private sector development and strengthening civil society. The initiative also focusses on women's issues and judicial reform, in addition to emphasising the significance of the information technology (IT) sector. Taking this a step further, Bush last month put forward the idea of a free trade area in the Middle East, whereby countries who have met the necessary reforms in those key areas could then be elevated to become trading partners with the US. "Across the globe, free markets and trade have helped defeat poverty and taught men and women the habits of liberty," Bush said at a commencement address in the University of South Carolina on 9 May. "We support the advance of freedom in the Middle East, because it is our founding principle and because it is in our national interest. The hateful ideology of terrorism is shaped and nurtured and protected by oppressive regimes. Free nations, in contrast, encourage creativity, tolerance and enterprise. And in those free nations, the appeal of extremism withers away." Although there is a general formula for all the Middle East countries, the US government intends to begin negotiations on reform issues, in addition to bilateral free trade talks, on a case-by-case scenario. For a country like Egypt, with an established extensive aid programme, the reforms, it appears, will be largely cosmetic. Initially, Egyptian officials reacted to US proposals with a mixture of scepticism and weariness. Cairo was sensitive to what appeared to be interference in its domestic affairs. Today, Egyptian and US officials are both saying that the current USAID programme in Egypt already covers almost all of the target areas of the MEPI. "We're making some changes to our ongoing programmes," one US official told Al- Ahram Weekly. "But what we've been doing in the past couple of years as part of our new strategy -- launched in 2000 -- is to a large extent in keeping with what the initiative objectives are." Cairo is more at ease now in knowing that the new US plans are really not much different than the old ones. "In some of our conversations with government officials here, the response we got was: but we're already doing this, what's the issue here?" says one US administration official. "There isn't an issue. In fact, a lot of the programme here is very similar to what our administration is saying is important. There are some differences -- some new things involved -- but a lot of it is very similar." Even in the highly controversial area of education, where rumours have been spreading that the US plans to change Egyptian school curricula, US and Egyptian officials are relegating it all to mere rumours. "In no US document have I seen plans for us to change curricula," one US official said. "We're not in the business of changing curricula. It is the results of their education system that we really have to focus on." The $29 million initially allocated to the project can only be an indication of the minimal changes that are required of the region, one diplomatic source said, despite a likely increase in that figure over the coming years. Meanwhile, Cairo is now able to have a more constructive dialogue with Washington on the issue, due to changing political circumstances. When the proposal was first put forward in December, US-Egyptian relations were strained. The peace process was in tatters and the Bush administration had its attention focussed on war plans for Iraq, which Egypt strongly opposed. But with Bush's newly pledged personal commitment to the peace process, officials here are saying that relations could once again improve. As one diplomatic source put it, although Egypt was against the war in Iraq, it managed to remain on good terms with Washington throughout the crisis, avoiding a falling out with Washington, as in the case of France and Germany. Cairo also has a strong incentive now to become actively engaged in the initiative ideas, says one diplomatic source: the free trade area. "The countries of this region are continuing their important endeavours to promote political, economic and social reforms," President Hosni Mubarak said at the Sharm El-Sheikh summit on 3 June. "We welcome the initiative by the United States to open new economic opportunities for all the people in the Middle East." Egypt and the US have been engaged in talks to establish a bilateral free trade area since former US President Bill Clinton's administration. And while Cairo has consistently been eager to move ahead with the proposal, Washington has often times placed roadblocks in the way. The US had 20 prerequisites identified for it to embark on the road to a free trade area with Egypt. These included economic, political and social reforms, in addition to improved relations with Israel, according to diplomatic sources. Although some US industries, notably the textiles sector, had opposed the proposal, this time around, the US seems to think that a Middle East Free Trade Area would be economically attractive to US businesses. It is now pushing for the necessary reforms through the MEPI and trying to improve Arab relations with Israel by working for a peaceful resolution of the Middle East crisis. Talks on the issue are still rudimentary, however, according to diplomatic sources, and nothing is expected to materialise before a year's time. Meanwhile, the reform agenda to create "a new Middle East free of terrorism and oppression", as top officials in Washington like to put it, is already underway. "With the launch of the US-Middle East Partnership Initiative last winter," Powell told the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee's National Convention banquet last Saturday, "we have embarked on an innovative approach to US-Arab cooperation that places us firmly on the side of change, reform and a modern future for the Middle East."
