The assassination of Ayatollah Mohamed Baqir Al-Hakim may deprive Iraq's Shi'ites of competent leadership and aggravate sectarian tension. Omayma Abdel-Latif looks into the fallout of the death of the Ayatollah As Iraqis struggle to come to terms with the assassination of one of Iraq's long-standing opposition figures and a highly respected spiritual authority, many are becoming increasingly concerned that the death of Ayatollah Mohamed Baqir Al-Hakim will further increase the sectarian and political polarisation in the country. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Iraqi Islamist figures expressed concern over what they described as "attempts by many parties first to draw battle lines between Iraq's Sunni and Shi'ites and to undermine the role of Al-Hawza Al-Deenya (the religious seminary) in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf". They added "There are obviously attempts to put pressure on Al-Hawza and curb its influence among Iraqi Shi'ites. There is an effort to intimidate its men of religion and weaken it in the eyes of Iraqis," Dr Sahib Al-Hakim, a signatory of the Declaration of the Shi'ites of Iraq and a London-based human rights activist told the Weekly on Sunday. Dr Al-Hakim believes that the killing of Ayatollah Baqir Al-Hakim is part of a larger scheme which aims to liquidate the most prominent Shi'ite figures and deprive Iraqi Shi'ites of a competent leadership. The failed attempt on the life of Ayatollah Mohamed Said Al-Hakim Al-Tabataba'i, who ranks second to Iraq's most senior spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Sistani, lends credence to such a view. Some beg to differ. In the view of one Iraqi Sunni figure, the target was not just the Shi'ite institutions and men of religion, but was broadly the Islamist movement in Iraq and those who advocate a centrist Islam with an active role in government. "Al-Hakim was targeted not because of some personal rivalries," explained Usama Al-Tikriti, head of the London bureau of the Iraqi Islamist Party, "but because of what he represented as a voice of moderation who transcended sectarian politics and was regarded as one of the prominent leaders of the Islamic movement in Iraq. I think his assassination was meant to strike at Iraq's national unity and sow discord among its people. There is a tendency -- even before the culprits are identified -- to present the case as Sunni versus Shi'ite and whoever carried out this heinous crime wanted to kindle sectarian strife among Iraqis," Al-Tikriti told the Weekly. Tension among Al-Hakim supporters this week rose to new levels with calls to avenge his death. If heeded, observers say, such acts of vengeance are likely to destabilise an already grave situation. Such a scenario is exactly what many Shi'ite leaders, including those in the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) have been working to avert during the past week. While SCIRI officials insisted that "Al-Hakim's death should be avenged," yet they rejected claims that the assassination was religiously-inspired or that it was a result of Shi'ites infighting. "This is a far more complicated situation than many think," Mohsen Al-Hakim, a member of the SCIRI told the Weekly. "Iraq is not plunging into a religious strife. This is a political matter and the Iraqis are wise enough to realise this. This is the work of the enemies of the Iraqi people be it the US, Britain, Israel or the Ba'thists," Al-Hakim insisted. The statement issued by Iraq's most senior spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani made the same point. Al-Sistani condemned in the strongest language the killing of Baqir Al-Hakim. He cautioned the Iraqis against what he described as "the forces which do not want Iraq to be secured and stabilised... They seek to sow the seeds of sedition among its people. We are certain that the Iraqi people are aware of those schemes and will stand up against them," the statement said. Al- Sistani's statement was perceived by many observers as a move to assert Al-Hawza's role in defending Iraq's national unity. It came also in response to a statement issued earlier this week, attributed by press reports to Al-Hawza, which carried a sectarian tone and referred to "Sunni elements" among the perpetrators. However, the Beirut-based As-Safir newspaper reported on Monday that the statement, unlike all previous ones issued by Al-Hawza's religious leaders, was not signed or attributed to a particular figure. An As-Safir editorial argued that the statement is yet another attempt to provoke sectarian tension among Iraqis. Both Sahib Al-Hakim and Al-Tikriti believe that the biggest challenge facing Iraq's two Muslim sects will be how to simultaneously handle the leadership void caused by Al-Hakim's death on the one hand while ensuring that the country will not descend into some kind of sectarian polarisation. While SCIRI sources conceded to the Weekly that a power vacuum does exist as a result of Al-Hakim's assassination, they, nonetheless, insisted that a smooth transfer of power will most likely take place. Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim, Baqir Al- Hakim's younger brother, the head of SCIRI's paramilitary wing, the Badr Brigade, and a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, is the obvious candidate for succession. SCIRI officials, however, avoided confirming or denying these beliefs. "It is still premature to identify the successor because there is an internal structure within SCIRI which elects the leader and Abdel-Aziz Al- Hakim is one among many candidates," Mohsen Al- Hakim explained. He pointed out that the SCIRI's central Shura council which is composed of 15 members will convene to elect the next head of the SCIRI. If elected, Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim will have to handle a legacy left by his brother who was keen to distance himself from any direct contact with the Americans and remained a vocal critic of their policies in Iraq after the occupation. Observers say that Abdel-Aziz Al- Hakim will be forced to adopt a more radical discourse, as already seen in his speech this week to mourners, in which he castigated the US forces and harshly criticised their policies. He went so far as to explicitly blame the American forces for "the holy blood that was shed in Al-Najaf". In taking this stance, Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim was appealing to the many SCIRI supporters who hold the US- occupation forces fully responsible for the lax security measures which allowed the atrocity in Al-Najaf last week ."There is a tendency among Al-Hakim's supporters which blame the US occupation forces squarely for his death and this might lead to a change in the way they deal with those forces," SCIRI sources told the London- based Al-Hayat newspaper on Monday. The SCIRI has already decided to take matters into their own hand and the Badr Brigade, the movement's paramilitary wing which was earlier ordered to disarm by the American forces, has been seen patrolling the streets of Al-Najaf. When asked if this would usher in a new approach adopted by the SCIRI since Baqir Al-Hakim had urged his supporters to peacefully resist the occupation, Mohamed Al-Hariri, SCIRI's bureau chief in Damascus told the Weekly that any change in the politics of resistance depends chiefly on whether or not the occupation forces plan to stay in Iraq. "If the occupation forces plan to stay in Iraq indefinitely, then patience is bound to run thin and there will be a change. What the Iraqis want now is to be handed the security issue, because they are more capable of handling it than any foreign forces. The Americans should understand this, because if they do not, the consequences will be grave," Al- Hariri said in a telephone interview from Damascus.
