Turkey's ruling party sweeps local elections but may come to regret it, Gareth Jenkins reports from Istanbul Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) strengthened its grip on power on Sunday with a crushing victory in nationwide local elections. Provisional results indicated that the JDP had won 42 per cent of the popular vote, up from 34.3 per cent when it won the November 2002 general elections. The main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (RPP) finished a distant second with 18 per cent. Only two other parties -- the Nationalist Action Party (NAP) and the right- wing True Path Party (TPP) -- gained more than 10 per cent of the vote. The elections left the JDP in control of 57 of Turkey's 81 provinces as well as the major cities of Istanbul and Ankara. Opinion polls indicated that although factors such as the popularity of individual candidates were important to voting preferences, the overwhelming majority indicated that they intend to vote for the same party in the next general elections. Such a ringing endorsement of the JDP's first 17 months in power has led many commentators to suggest that the government may decide to cut and run for new general elections in the fall, three years before the next polls are due. But Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has already ruled out such a move. "Calling early general elections would just create instability," he said. The size of the JDP victory on Sunday could yet turn out to be a mixed blessing. Even though the moderately Islamist JDP enjoys a comfortable parliamentary majority with just over two-thirds of the seats in the 550-seat unicameral chamber, its ability to govern is still circumscribed by Turkey's secular establishment, especially the country's powerful military. While far from being as radical as its detractors sometimes portray it, sources close to Erdogan freely admit that in the long-term the military will seek to relax the often strict interpretation of secularism that is currently practised in Turkey. This will include reducing the rigidity of such measures as the ban on women wearing headscarves in state institutions, which is currently preventing hundreds of thousands of girls from attending university. Ever since it came to power the JDP has engaged in a game of cat and mouse with the Turkish establishment, floating the idea of easing restrictions on the expression of religious identity in the public sphere only to backtrack given the reactions from the secular establishment -- usually the military. Privately, JDP officials have long maintained that they are not yet strong enough to challenge the status quo, particularly given that secularists remain deeply entrenched in the judiciary and government bureaucracy. The JDP's priority has been to stabilise Turkey's traditionally-shaky economy and to secure a date from the EU for the beginning of accession negotiations. In the meantime, it has sought to weaken the secularists' hold on the bureaucracy by filling it with JDP supporters. Once this is achieved, JDP officials argue their party will be returned at the next general elections with an even greater majority and will finally be strong enough to address issues such as the headscarf ban. But for the JDP the challenge has always been to convince its grassroots supporters of the need to be patient. In recent months there have been increasing signs that many are becoming frustrated, and their impatience is likely to increase in the wake of the JDP's landslide victory in Sunday's local elections. There is also a danger that the JDP may itself become overconfident and attempt to amend the Turkish definition of secularism too soon. Any confrontation could send tremors through the financial markets and may derail the country's still-fragile recovery from the devastating economic recession of 2001. The size of the JDP victory is also likely to increase frustrations amongst opposition parties fearing long-term -- possibly even permanent -- exclusion from power. Although the fractious coalitions that ruled Turkey from 1991 to 2002 were often incompetent and corrupt, they did at least prevent too tight a grip over the state machinery by a single party. During the local election campaign government ministers told public rallies several times that if they voted for the JDP they would be assured of central government funding for local projects; the clear implication being that if they did not, the money would not be forthcoming. If the JDP continues to fill the government bureaucracy with party members and to channel central government funds to JDP run municipalities, the already dangerous polarisation between secularists and Islamists in the country could give way to another, between those in the JDP and those outside it. Perhaps significantly, this election, which all opinion polls indicated was a foregone conclusion, was also the bloodiest for many years. During the election campaign seven people were killed and scores more injured in clashes between JDP activists and members of opposition parties.
