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Time for an exit
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 - 05 - 2004

Pressure is mounting for the handover of real power to a new Iraqi provisional government and for a timetable for foreign troops to withdraw, reports Omayma Abdel-Latif
"If I were them, I'd want to run my own country too." Such was the response of US President George Bush when asked this week about his views on the transfer of power to the Iraqi people. To many Iraqis, Bush's words ring hollow in light of an increasingly deteriorating situation, continued revelations about the Abu Ghraib torture scandal, and most importantly the lack of a clear strategy as to how and when US and other foreign troops will pull out of Iraq.
With six weeks to go before US-led occupiers hand back sovereignty to an Iraqi provisional government, there are many unresolved issues; perhaps the most vexed being what kind of sovereign powers will be assumed by the new government.
Sources in US-appointed Interim Governing Council (IGC) told Al-Ahram Weekly that talks are still underway about the shape of the government, adding that there is general agreement to form a cabinet of 26 members, 14 of whom will be Shia, the rest coming from Sunni and Kurdish ranks. Hamid Al- Kifa'ie, IGC spokesperson, told the Weekly on Tuesday that "many ideas were still being discussed with Lakhdar Brahimi", the UN special envoy to Iraq. Al-Kifa'ie admitted that the killing on Monday of Izzuddin Selim, the head of the IGC, dealt a terrible below to the efforts aimed at forming the new provisional government.
"Selim", explained Al-Kifa'ie, "was the liaison between Brahimi and the IGC on the file of the interim government". On the day he was killed, he was scheduled to brief the council on the results of his extensive three-day talks with Brahimi in Arbil. "He knew every little detail about this new government," said Al-Kifa'ie.
Iraqi politicians, meanwhile, insisted that the death of Selim was not going to impede the political process. Mahdi Al- Hafez, deputy head of the Independent Democrats coalition said that the process shall go ahead according to plan. When asked about the kind of sovereignty the new government will assume, he insisted that Iraqis would only accept "full sovereignty". "We realise that restoring sovereignty will not be an easy process, but we believe that there is an international consensus that full sovereignty should be handed back to the Iraqis," Al-Hafez, who is also a strong contender for the prime minister post, told the Weekly in a telephone interview from Baghdad.
As the United States and Britain prepare for a new UN resolution, some Security Council members made clear demands that they will not support any resolution that does not give real and visible sovereignty to the Iraqis. Both France and Russia -- two permanent members of the Security Council -- have warned that they will only back a proposal that gives Iraqis genuine control over their political future. But this is likely to embarrass the US, which wants to keep some strategic files, such as security and oil revenues, in its hands. The failure to restore security almost one year after the occupation and the use of brutal excessive force to quash resistance activities in Falluja and against Al-Sadr's militia in Najaf pose real questions about the ability of the US-led occupation forces to handle the security issue.
"I think there is a general consensus that they-- the Americans-- have miserably failed in handling security," Kifa'ie said. "I think the new government will insist that the Iraqis be handed the security file."
This week British and American media reports quoted government officials as saying that the stepping up of training of Iraqi police and army is an attempt to speed up the pull out from Iraq. US civil administrator in Iraq Paul Bremer said that US troops would pull out if they were asked to do so by the new provisional government slated to take over after 30 June. He was, however, quick to add that he does not expect this to happen.
Indeed, talk of an "exit strategy", or what some commentators described as "an honourable exit", contradicts what some US policy makers have in mind. In an attempt to put an end to speculations about the US military presence in Iraq after the restoration of sovereignty, US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told US Congress on Tuesday that "It is impossible to determine how much longer US troops would remain in Iraq." In response, Al-Hafez said that the new provisional government would invoke its right to demand a deadline for the withdrawal of America's military presence in Iraq. While he acknowledged that "it is unrealistic that the troops leave Iraq soon," he believes that sooner or later they will have to set a deadline for their departure.
Ali Al-Wa'ez, the deputy of Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in Al- Kadhemyia district is not willing to wait long. He insisted that a deadline for withdrawal should be agreed shortly after the Iraqis are handed back sovereignty. "When the Iraqis assume sovereign powers after 30 June, and when the situation is stabilised, the Americans will have to pull out, otherwise they will be considered to have outstayed their welcome and will be legitimately regarded as occupiers," Al- Wa'ez told the Weekly from Baghdad. He said that there was a consensus among the leaders of the religious establishment on this fact. "There will be no need for them in the country," Al- Wa'ez concluded. (see pp.7-10)


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