If EU parliamentary elections are a barometer of the public mood in Italy, the results do not augur well for the Berlusconi administration. Samia Nkrumah reports from Rome It is increasingly evident that Forza Italia, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's party, has lost significant support since the 2001 national elections. Only the good showing of the other smaller parties within the governing coalition in recent EU elections averted a crisis. Partners like Alleanza Nationale held their ground and others like the centrist UDS actually increased their share of votes. The pro-federalist Northern League also fared well. The results have strengthened the smaller parties within the coalition at the expense of Berlusconi's party, giving them greater clout in government. "The [centre-right] coalition has got a good result," said centrist leader Rocco Buttiglione, who predicted that "the culture of coalition" would be the rising theme in domestic politics. On the centre-left, L'Ulivo (The Olive), a group of three centre-left parties headed by European Commission President Romano Prodi collected 31 per cent of votes, making it the most popular force in these elections and well ahead of Berlusconi's Forza Italia, which got 21.5 per cent. "We have won one third of the votes," said centre-left leader Piero Fassino, who added that they are now "the biggest political force in the country". According to Prodi, the results confirm, "the Ulivo project has gone down well with the voters." On the left too, smaller parties, outside the Ulivo, gained ground -- most notably the Rifondazione Communisti (the Refounded Communists) and the Greens. These parties were explicitly against the war in Iraq from the outset, which seems to have served them well among supporters. Meanwhile, Berlusconi's explicit call to his supporters on the eve of the elections to avoid voting for smaller parties seems to have been ignored. His prediction that Forza Italia would get 25 per cent of votes has not materialised either. The prime minister has been conducting a high-profile campaign, especially in the last few weeks. The credit for the release of the three Italian hostages held in Iraq for two months went to the prime minister as repeated television programmes hammered the point home. In addition, an unprecedented text-messaging campaign was conducted in the form of a message sent to almost every mobile phone reminding users to vote and signing off from the prime minister's office. These efforts may have partly paid off, as the centre-right as a whole did not lose ground. The country remains evenly split between the centre-right and the centre-left, as shown by the total number of parties on both right and left blocs. The European parliamentary seats also reflect this spilt, as the centre-left received 37 seats against 36 for the centre- right. Analysts agree that the Ulivo list obtained a good result though it failed to achieve a striking success. While the centre-left improved on its 2001 national elections record, supporters had higher expectations. They were hoping for a bigger percentage of votes to surpass the centre-right total by a clear margin. Tellingly, the centre-left leadership expressed satisfaction but no jubilation. The left's modest success is attributed to several factors, the most important being the fact that the centre-left's leadership question remains unresolved. As European Commission president, Prodi cannot officially enter the race until his tenure ends this coming winter. Barring unexpected change, he may indeed lead the centre-left in the 2006 elections according to analysts who believe the European election results have consolidated his leadership chances. In that case, smaller parties like the Communists, the Greens and other left- wing forces are likely to enter into talks with the Ulivo to expand the centre-left bloc. Italy has 78 seats in the European Parliament; nine fewer than in the last elected parliament in 1999. The influence of the European parliament is getting stronger. Even though deputies cannot introduce legislation -- a job left to the European Commission -- they can influence laws by voting on and amending them. Alongside the European elections, local elections have been and are being held in some regions in Italy with exit poll projections indicating that centre-left candidates are ahead in major cities like Florence, Milan and Bari. In the northern city of Bologna the charismatic former head of the largest trade union Confedrazione Generale Italiana del Lavoro (CGIL) and centre-left candidate, Sergio Cofferati, has made it through in the first round to become the city's mayor. The European parliamentary elections and the local elections come after a week which saw the release of the three Italian hostages as well as attacks on the Italian contingent in Nassiriya that wounded one soldier. The elections also follow recent developments on the security front at home, namely the arrest in Milan of a suspect who is charged with being one of the masterminds behind the Madrid train bombings last March that killed over 190 people. A Ministry of Interior statement identified the suspect as Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed. Known as "Mohamed, the Egyptian", the suspect is an Egyptian by nationality, according to Ministry sources. Spanish prosecutors have, meanwhile, requested his extradition.
