Ferocious fighting between factions erupts as elections near in Afghanistan, reports Peter Willems from Kabul With Afghanistan's presidential elections only six weeks away, the final list of 18 presidential candidates aiming to take the top spot in Afghanistan's new government was released on 10 August. The Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB), the organisation carrying out a coordinated effort between the United Nations and the Afghan government, showed surprising results after closing registration sites early this month. Around 10 million Afghans -- over 90 per cent of eligible voters -- have registered to vote, with more than 41 per cent being women. President Hamid Karzai, the head of Afghanistan's transitional government, is believed to be the frontrunner for the elections to be held on 9 October. A recent poll carried out by the International Republican Institute underlined that Karzai is still considered the most popular candidate among Afghans. But a move made by Karzai in late July may have weakened his lead. The president did not name his expected running mate Mohamed Fahim as one of his two vice-presidential candidates. Instead, he picked Ahmed Zia Massoud, Afghanistan's ambassador to Russia, and Karim Khulili. Fahim is not only the government's defence minister but is considered as one of, if not the most powerful Afghan warlords. He was one of the leading mujahidin commanders fighting against the Soviet Union's occupation between 1979 and 1989 and helped topple the Taliban regime in late 2001. Many believe that Karzai's decision to distance himself from Fahim reflected a calculation that too close an association with the warlord could weaken his credibility while running as a president promising to establish a fully-fledged democratic government. In retaliation, Fahim gave support to Karzai's number one contender Yunus Qanuni, minister of education and once a leading figure in the Northern Alliance movement that overthrew the Taliban. Afghan analysts say that Qanuni working to gain support from mujahidin leaders is a setback to Karzai's comfortable lead position in the elections. Some worry that militia leaders being involved in the elections could disrupt the new democratic system for years to come. With warlords in control of vast territories across the country, many expect Afghans to be bullied to vote for whom they want in office. "It's obvious that militia leaders will intimidate voters to have power in the new government," an Afghan analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Not only is that not a free and fair election, but it will not be a real democratic government." Until recently, warlords have been given free rein to build their power base after they ousted the Taliban. It was not until last October that the government initiated a programme aimed at disarming 40,000 of the 100,000 militiamen before the elections. But with strong resistance from militia leaders, only 10,000 weapons have been collected. Afghanistan's traditional ethnic divide is also playing a part in the elections. Qanuni is expected to be backed by his Tajik constituency, especially in his native Panjshir region just north of Kabul. Another candidate, Abdul-Rashid Dostem, once a military commander under Soviet rule and one of the country's most powerful strongmen, will probably get support from his fellow Uzbeks in the north. Mohamed Mohqiq, a Hazara militia leader, is expected to capture votes from the Shia Hazara population in central Afghanistan. Karzai, of Pashtun origin -- the largest ethnic group in the country -- and originally from the south, has tried to break the ethnic barriers by choosing Massoud as one of his vice- presidential running mates. Massoud is a Tajik and is the brother of the slain commander, Ahmed Shah Massoud, considered a hero in holding out against the Taliban regime. But some believe that Karzai will find it difficult to secure enough Pashtun support. Some Pashtuns are becoming sympathetic to the Taliban as fighting between US troops and remnants of the Taliban continues in the south. Registration was also weaker in the south, which has the highest concentration of eligible Pashtun voters, due to ongoing clashes. Others worry whether Afghanistan will be stable enough to carry out elections at all. Earlier this month, intense fighting erupted between different factions in west Afghanistan, leaving over 20 dead. The Taliban has been able to regroup and over 900 people have been killed in the last year as a result of fighting between Taliban fighters and US forces. The Taliban, and possibly supporters of warlords and those involved in Afghanistan's flourishing heroin trade, have been attacking targets to destabilise the country and derail the elections. Over the last 12 months, around 40 aid workers and a dozen election workers have been killed. Soon after the bombing of a JEMB site in west Afghanistan last week, which injured half a dozen workers, the United Nations Staff Union committee in New York urged Secretary General Kofi Annan to consider suspending operations and possibly withdrawing staff from the country while reviewing security before the electoral process in October. Manoel de Almeida e Silva, UN Spokesman based in Afghanistan, said postponing operations is unlikely. "I do not predict the withdrawal of the UN from Afghanistan," Silva told the Weekly. But he did add that "security is a matter of great concern to us." This month, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees reduced its operations in Afghanistan after two workers for a German aid agency were killed in the southeast of the country. Doctors Without Borders, a health organisation that had been operating in the war-torn country for 24 years, decided to pull out of Afghanistan after the killing of five of its employees in June. To help secure the country for elections, NATO has added more troops to its International Security Assistance peacekeeping force (ISAF). More than 8,000 ISAF troops are stationed in Kabul and in other parts of north Afghanistan. Afghan government sources say that from now through presidential elections and until parliamentary elections in April 2005, violence will increase and it isn't clear if ISAF will be enough to maintain security. "We appreciate the increase in NATO troops to stabilise Afghanistan, but during the elections it will be a difficult job," said Lutfullah Mashal, special assistant to the minister of interior. "There is no doubt that guerrilla attacks carried out by the Taliban and other terrorist groups will increase as we get closer to the elections." Some Afghan voters feel that no matter what the circumstances are during elections time, they are determined to cast their votes. "I will be there to vote," Mohamed Hussein, a registered voter in Kabul told the Weekly. "We have experienced war for so long, so we need to bring in a government that is able to bring peace to our country." But the question remains as to how violent it will be in Afghanistan over the next eight months.
