Afghanistan is poised to hold presidential elections on 9 October in spite of the fast deteriorating security situation, writes Peter Willems Last Friday, United States officials announced that 700 soldiers of the first battalion of the 505th Parachute Infantry Regiment, which already has experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, would be deployed to Afghanistan within a few days. But the US troops will have their hands full trying to help create some sense of stability during the lead-up to the elections. Last week, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai barely escaped an assassination attempt the first time he ventured outside of Kabul, the capital, during his election campaign. His trip to the south-eastern town of Gardez was aborted as a rocket missed the US military helicopter while the president was inside. Late last month, a bomb attack at the premises of a security firm in Kabul that provides protection for Karzai killed 10 people, thus laying bare the lack of security at the heart of the country. "We welcome US troops to help us carry through the elections, but security has gotten worse, and we expect violence to increase during the election period," said one Afghan government official. What is left of the Taliban regime, which was ousted in late 2001, has reformed and rebuilt its strength, and is now engaged in regular fighting with 18,000 US troops in the south. The number of casualties, most of them victims of Taliban guerrilla attacks, has climbed to over 1,000 since the beginning of the year. The terrorists have also begun to launch attacks in northern areas too, once calm despite the clashes in the south. Up to 40 aid workers and a dozen election workers have been killed over the last 12 months. It is no secret that the Taliban are attempting to derail the upcoming elections. Soon after the assassination attempt on Karzai, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and announced they were targeting all of the 18 candidates running for president. "All presidential candidates are our top targets now, because they are running in a US-made election -- an election which will create a government in the interest of the Americans," said Abdul-Latif Hakimi, a Taliban spokesman. Although US forces have been in Afghanistan for nearly three years, the mastermind of the Al-Qaeda network Osama Bin Laden and his second in command Ayman Al-Zawahiri, are still on the loose. US army officials now believe that the two Al- Qaeda leaders were behind some of the recent attacks. "What we see are their techniques and their tactics here in Afghanistan," said Major-General Eric Olson, operational commander of the US-led forces in Afghanistan. "I think it is reasonable to assume that the senior leaders are involved in directing those operations." Olson added that "I don't think we're close at all" to eliminating insurgents in Afghanistan in the near future. Although NATO agreed in October 2003 to send more forces to help bring security to areas outside the Afghan government's control, member countries have hesitated to commit troops. NATO has plans to send 1,500 soldiers in the next few weeks to boost the 6,500-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in time for the elections. But NATO has yet to find any countries which would be willing to send their troops into unstable areas, such as the western province of Herat. Early this month, Karzai made a bold move by removing from office the Herat governor, who is seen as one of the strongest warlords in the country, and was known to be reluctant to give up power. Soon after his dismissal, a riot broke out in the city, and six aid agency offices were burned down, while four people were killed and 50 wounded. Staff of the UN and aid organisations were forced to evacuate the area. Karzai's decision was intended to expand the influence of the central government outside of the capital and into the countryside. But despite his efforts, vast areas are still under the control of powerful warlords backed by armed militias. The government is thus in dire need of the assistance provided by the ISAF. The US army is training Afghan army soldiers, and the aim is to build the national forces up to 70,000 troops in 2009, at which time they would be able to replace ISAF and US forces in the south. For the moment, however, the national army has only 15,000 soldiers. Some think that Afghanistan is not at all prepared for the elections. "We certainly anticipate a rise in attacks as we get closer to the elections and more assassination attempts against candidates, including Karzai," said Nick Downie, who is in charge of security for non-governmental organisations. Downie also said that the United States and NATO sending more troops now is a case of "too little too late. It's going to make very little difference, and in any case it should have been done long ago." A recent report from the Afghanistan Evaluation and Research Unit said that whichever candidate wins the election is likely to face a "crisis of legitimacy" because of the lack of international monitoring and the paucity of properly-trained electoral staff. The report argues that without proper supervision, there will be many flaws in the electoral process, and it will be easy for militia commanders to intimidate voters, in addition to committing straightforward fraud. Early this month, one of the leading international providers of election observers, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation based in Vienna, decided not to send a monitoring team to Afghanistan due to the lack of security. A number of presidential candidates are now calling for the elections to be delayed for a month or longer, arguing that they are not able to campaign for the presidency properly in such an unstable environment. But some believe that even if the elections will be far from perfect, and despite the likely upsurge in violence, Afghans are still eager to vote. Around 10.5 million have registered to vote in what will be the first elections held in Afghanistan in over three decades, with women representing over 40 per cent of those registered. "People are looking at the elections with hope, doubt and fear," said Abdul-Latif Rahmani, professor of political science at Kabul University. "The number of people that registered is more than expected, and it indicates that the people are willing to go to the polls, even though the process may not be as free and as realistic as we hoped. The people see this event as something unique, and are eager to vote because it will give them the opportunity to express themselves."
