A mosaic of political groups has launched an ambitious "popular campaign for change" ahead of the 2005 presidential elections. Is it realistic, wonders Amira Howeidy A giant billboard in Cairo's Tahrir Square, put up more than two weeks ago to celebrate Egypt's five Olympic medallists, strangely sums up the country's political climate. Because Tahrir is downtown Cairo's most central square, millions of Egyptians pass through there everyday. And while that teeming mass was treated to massive images of their Olympic champions, they also got to see the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, pictured greeting one of the champions on one of the billboards. Until it was removed on Tuesday, that particular billboard was the subject of scrutiny and debate in political circles. For some, in the latest round of the struggle for political freedoms and reform, it represented a battle that had to be won. For a group of political organisations that have launched a "popular campaign" fixated on opposing the renewal of President Hosni Mubarak's presidential term in 2005 and resisting what they say are efforts to promote his son as a potential successor, every symbol counts. The 20th of March Movement for Change, the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, the outlawed Communist Party, the would-be Al-Karama Movement Party and the Hisham Mubarak Law Centre (HMLC) are among the 15 organisations and groups behind the campaign. In a statement titled "No renewal, no hereditary succession, yes to electing the president of the republic", the group launched their campaign for the "popular movement for change" on 9 September. The statement said security forces prevented them from holding a scheduled press conference at the Bar Association. It said that the undersigned political forces, professional and workers' unions representatives, civil society groups, and citizens all oppose the process by which the president is selected and his term renewed. "After 24 years under the current regime, it is clear that the political establishment is an obstacle for change," the statement claimed. It called for an immediate amendment of the constitution before the current presidential term expires in October 2005. It emphasised the urgency of the modification "in order to give the national forces the chance to participate in the presidential elections and allow the Egyptian people to choose who will represent them". It also demanded the abrogation of emergency law, the release of prisoners of conscience and placing the elections under full judicial supervision. In a meeting on Monday night at HMLC headquarters, representatives of the 15 groups and organisations set the agenda for the next phase of their campaign, which was kicked off by a signature collection drive. According to HMLC director Ahmed Seif El-Islam, the campaigners decided to get permission to conduct a scholarly public poll on the issues of renewing the president's term and the possibility of hereditary succession. Public polling requires the approval of the authorities. The groups were also getting ready to demand the removal of the much-debated Gamal Mubarak billboard from Tahrir Square -- until it disappeared on Tuesday. Although Seif El-Islam said he did not know why the billboard was removed, he indicated that if similar images across the city were also removed, the group would drop that demand. "Gamal Mubarak has no constitutional or legal standing that would justify placing his picture in a public square in the first place," he said. And if the group's request to conduct a poll is turned down, Seif El-Islam said, "we will go to court." The campaigners are planning a political rally for 16 October, 23 years to the day Mubarak came to power following the assassination of President Anwar El-Sadat in 1981. The conference will present what Seif El- Islam described as a comprehensive political vision being promoted by the parties conducting the campaign. It will also serve as an occasion to comment on the outcome of a ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) conference being held on 21 September. The NDP conference is expected to resolve speculation over the president's intention to run for a fifth term, as well as reveal his vision regarding domestic and foreign demands for meaningful political reform. Yet one does not have to be an incontrovertible pessimist to reckon that the chances of the ruling party responding to such demands are slim indeed. Commenting on a meeting held by several opposition political parties last week to demand constitutional reform, NDP Secretary-General Safwat El- Sherif shrugged off such demands as unnecessary. He went so far as to say that, "too much talk on constitutional reform on the part of the opposition will open the door to foreign intervention in domestic affairs." Gamal Mubarak -- who heads the NDP's Policies Committee -- reiterated this position on Sunday, telling reporters that his party is not considering constitutional change. The opposition coalition that held last week's meeting excluded what it referred to as groups lacking legitimacy, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and political parties with no licence. Although this seems to explain why the Brotherhood joined the Popular Campaign for Change, which consists mainly of left- wing activists and political figures, the group's leaders argue otherwise. "We didn't join the Popular Campaign in reaction to the opposition parties' coalition," Essam El-Erian a leading member of the Brotherhood and vice- president of the Doctors' Syndicate, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We have long been part of this group." He argued that his organisation was an active member of the Egyptian Committee in Solidarity with the Palestinian Intifada (ECSPI), which was formed three years ago and which became the nucleus for popular political activity, as opposed to licensed but stagnant opposition political parties. El-Erian described the opposition parties' decision to exclude the Brotherhood from their coalition as a "big mistake". Opposition parties "should realise the importance of the coming stage, which will be crucial in determining the future of this country". There is immense pressure on the political establishment for serious reform, he said, "and it will have two choices -- either to respond or not. If it doesn't, it will take us towards the unknown, where anything can happen." To illustrate his point, El-Erian referred to a spontaneous and sudden "passengers' rebellion against some microbus drivers" on Sunday, when fares were slightly increased. "It was contained, but we don't know that such reactions will not recur in other shapes or forms. We can't predict what will happen." In response to sceptics of this and previous endeavours, who question the potential effectiveness of a campaign that relies on the power of the people to achieve aspired-for change, El-Erian said, "collecting signatures and organising meetings and rallys so that the campaign gains momentum is all we can do. We operate under the emergency law, which leave us with limited options. Anything more would be considered civil disobedience." Seif El-Islam, though, believes risks should be taken. "Rights are not given, they are taken," he argued. "We don't have an agenda on exactly how we will progress with our campaign. We don't know how the general public, especially university students, will react, and whether they'll take up our slogans. We will find out when we get there." He has reasons to believe that "the people" -- not just the political elite -- feel passionate about the need for change. "During the massive popular anti-war demonstrations in Tahrir Square on 20 March last year," Seif El-Islam said, "the politicians were focussed on the war, while it was the people who diverted to domestic issues."
