India and Pakistan are patching up their differences, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad On 6 January 2004, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf launched the "composite dialogue" between their two countries. The aim was to work for normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan through a step-by-step process -- working through the key issues between them. This month the leaders of India and Pakistan will be meeting again. It is thus a good time to assess the progress made in the composite dialogue and -- crucially -- to see where it is heading. Eight key issues were identified for the composite dialogue: Kashmir, confidence-building, terrorism and drugs, trade and economic cooperation, Siachen, travel, Wullur Lake and the disputed border region of Sir Creek. Kashmir is by far the most important issue between India and Pakistan -- the one that has caused the most problems between them. But the other issues also have great impact on bilateral relations. Confidence-building includes the handling of nuclear and conventional arms: a matter of great concern, especially to the international community. The huge trade potential between India and Pakistan has not been realised -- to the detriment of both peoples. Siachen is an on-going drain on men and resources: a glacier, it is the highest battle zone in the world. Indian plans to dam Wullur Lake in Kashmir could have a devastating effect on water supply to Pakistan, affecting irrigation and power projects. In short, all crucial issues. In the past, progress on these other important issues has been held up by the fact that India and Pakistan could not resolve their disagreements over Kashmir. The composite dialogue approach -- by placing these other issues on a par with Kashmir -- gives an opportunity for them to be resolved soon. Following the January meeting between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee, officials from India and Pakistan held a series of talks. Pakistani Foreign Office personnel met first to chalk out the schedule for talks on the eight issues on the composite dialogue agenda. A delay occurred because of the Indian national elections in May 2004. The BJP-led government of Atal Behari Vajpayee was replaced by the Congress-led government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Concerns that the change in New Delhi would derail the composite dialogue were very early dismissed. Singh clearly signalled his government's intention to continue the work started by his predecessor. To date at least one round of talks has been held on each of the eight issues. The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, Natwar Singh and Khurshid Kasuri, met earlier this month to review progress. That in itself was a historic meeting -- the first such in three years. As far as the composite dialogue is concerned, there is already a considerable list of achievements: talks to expand the Delhi-Lahore bus and rail service to new routes are well underway; a special bus service for Indian Sikhs to visit religious sites in Pakistan has been agreed; there is agreement on greater cooperation to tackle drugs smuggling -- each High Commission will designate a special official for this. The two sides are also believed to have started talks on demilitarising Siachen. Among the most significant developments are confidence- building measures for conventional arms. Expert-level dialogues on CBMs related to conventional military arsenal are seen as a breakthrough which could have a salutary effect on the bloated defence budgets of both countries. Meanwhile, nuclear CBMs are being further fine-tuned. Also significant was the agreement to discuss construction of a gas pipeline going from Iran to India via Pakistan. In the past this has been blocked by Indian security concerns: the fact that India is now discussing it with Pakistan shows how much trust and confidence has risen. Kashmir, not surprisingly, has remained a stumbling block. At their meeting in India, the statements of the foreign ministers reflected just how far apart the two sides are on Kashmir. While Natwar Singh complained about on-going cross- border infiltration, his Pakistani counterpart expressed concern about on-going human rights abuses in the Indian-held Valley. Optimists note, however, that just the fact that they could express these quite divergent positions without the overall talks process collapsing, as it has in the past, must be seen as a sign of progress. These are the official achievements, but there have also been substantial "unofficial" achievements over the past nine months. People to people contact between Indians and Pakistanis has increased considerably -- something seen by many as crucial for long-term normalisation of relations. There have been cultural exchanges between actors, musicians, and other artists, as well as politicians, businessmen and others. In March the Indian cricket team played a historic series in Pakistan. Though the home side lost, the series was characterised by goodwill and a marked lack of hostility. Viewed overall, there are mixed assessments of the composite dialogue to date. While some laud its achievements and the progress it has made in improving bilateral relations, others point to its lack of substantive progress -- particularly on the key issue of Kashmir. There are concerns on both sides about whether progress on other issues can be sustained if there is none on Kashmir. In Pakistan, some feel that the government has gone too far in making goodwill gestures to the Indians. So what next? The immediate event on the dialogue calendar is a meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan and President Musharraf, on the sidelines of the forthcoming UN General Assembly gathering. The meeting is especially significant because it will be the first time the two leaders meet. Both departed for New York expressing willingness to give impetus to the peace process and a desire to resolve the festering Kashmir dispute. These departure statements appear to be setting the ground for positive talks -- despite officials playing down expectation of a major breakthrough in New York. In October Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz will be going to India, in his capacity as chairperson of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). In December the foreign secretaries will meet to review progress on the composite dialogue, and set the agenda for the next round of talks. And in January, the two prime ministers will meet at the SAARC Heads of State Summit in India. There is thus no shortage of opportunities for India and Pakistan to make progress on the composite dialogue and -- for the moment at least -- no shortage of will. Millions of people in South Asia will be waiting to see if this process finally delivers results: permanent peace between India and Pakistan.
