South Asia and the world are hoping for pleasant surprises at the SAARC Summit, writes Iffat Idris from Islamabad The feeling in Pakistan, and especially the capital Islamabad, for the past several weeks has been that of a stage being set for a performance or production. The show in question is the 12th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Heads of State Summit. In addition to the obvious organisational and security arrangements being made for the summit, the Musharraf government is also engaged in a flurry of political and diplomatic preparations. As the summit gets underway, the Pakistani president is hoping all the hard work pays off. One of the constant criticisms that President Pervez Musharraf faces whenever he steps onto the international stage is that he is not a democratically elected leader. He might be a moderate Muslim leader providing crucial support to the US-led war on terror, but that does not entirely cover the stain of his military rule. Musharraf "secured" the presidency through a national referendum in April 2002, but the exercise had scant credibility. According to the constitution, the president has to secure a vote of confidence from a majority of members of the Senate (Upper House) and the national and provincial assemblies. For many months Musharraf has been engaged in negotiations with opposition parties to secure their support. A deal was finally struck with the Islamist Mutahidda Majlis- e-Amal Party (MMA) last week. Musharraf agreed to some of their demands, notably that he give a time limit for when he will step down as army chief (a position he holds alongside that of president). In return the MMA approved a package of constitutional amendments introduced by Musharraf. The 17th Constitutional Amendment Bill allows the president to dismiss the government and dissolve parliament, with the approval of the Supreme Court. The bill was passed by a two-third majority in both Houses of Parliament. The MMA also abstained during a vote of confidence held in the assemblies. Other opposition parties boycotted in protest, and Musharraf comfortably won the vote. The vote enables him to complete his five-year term as president, until 2007, and while many critics accused Musharraf of exploitation, the vote nonetheless boosted Musharraf's confidence heading into the SAARC Summit. The main unofficial item on the summit agenda is some type of bilateral dialogue between India and Kashmir. Diplomatic preparations for this have been underway for some time. They include the restoration of key diplomatic ties, resumption of the Lahore-Delhi bus service, a cease-fire along the Line of Control, and the announcement by Musharraf that Pakistan might be willing to set aside United Nations resolutions on Kashmir. The latest development prior to the summit was the resumption of air links. A Pakistan International Airlines plane flew from Lahore to Delhi on 1 January 2004, the first direct flight between the two countries in nearly two years. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation was formed in 1985 as a forum to promote economic growth and development in South Asia through mutual cooperation. The need for growth and development in South Asia is obvious. Home to almost a quarter of the world's population, the average income in the region is a paltry $450. Human development indicators such as literacy levels, maternal and infant mortality are consistently appalling. Designed to address these issues, SAARC has so far done little to remedy the situation -- principally because of hostility between its two biggest members India and Pakistan. Last year's SAARC Summit, for example, was cancelled because of Indian-Pakistani tension. In terms of regional cooperation, the summit is expected to yield a South Asia Free Trade Agreement, expected to take effect on 1 January 2006. The free trade zone will promote economic links between the member countries and strengthen each country's respective economies. Under the terms of the agreement, hammered out by SAARC foreign ministers before the summit, each member state would be able to nominate "sensitive" products on which tariffs would not be reduced. Foreign ministers also agreed to measures to combat terrorism and on a social charter to raise living standards in South Asia. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri commented on the "spirit of give and take" and goodwill that marked the foreign ministers' meetings. His Indian counterpart Yashwant Sinha went even further: "I have absolutely no hesitation in saying that the winds of change are blowing in the SAARC region. In Islamabad, I have a sense of history." Implementation of the SAARC agreements, including setting up a free trade zone in 2006, will depend on the state of relations between India and Pakistan. Although the two countries have been engaged in a process of normalisation, there have not been any formal talks between the two sides to try to resolve their differences, most notably over Kashmir. The Pakistanis see the SAARC Summit as an excellent opportunity for such bilateral dialogue to take place. The Indians, however, prefer to keep the SAARC Summit as just that -- a meeting to discuss SAARC issues rather than bilateral Indian-Pakistan issues. Before landing in Islamabad, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee ruled out any talks on Kashmir during the SAARC Conference, but left the door open to future discussions on the matter, saying that progress would take time: "It is obvious that to take things forward time is needed. Talks should be held regularly," he said. Despite New Delhi playing down the prospects of some kind of bilateral breakthrough, observers are still expecting something positive to come from the SAARC Summit. With the eyes of the world fixed on Islamabad, each side will wish to be seen as the "peacemaker", neither will wish to be seen as standing in the way of regional peace. The vote of confidence secured by Musharraf earlier in the week, coupled with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's success in recent Indian state elections, are also seen as making it easier for the two leaders to make compromising gestures. The level of expectation around the SAARC Summit can be gauged from the fact that a huge regional and international media contingent has descended on Islamabad. No one wants to miss history in the making.
