Mohamed Darwish examines the issues to be debated in the forthcoming Arab Strategic Forum in Dubai Heads of states and governments from the Arab world, along with dozens of prominent Arab and international businessmen, will converge in Dubai on 13 December for a meeting of the Arab Strategic Forum (ASF). This is a gathering that will look into the future of the Arab region over the next two decades. The Dubai government, which has yet to disclose the names of participants, expects the forum to be one of "the most important events" addressing the political, economic and security concerns of the region. The three-day forum will review various scenarios that may affect the region up to the year 2020. It will also look into the impact of the US occupation of Iraq and the implications of the US plans for what it calls "the greater Middle East". Dubai began organising the Dubai Strategic Forums in 2002. Such was the success of the last two gatherings that Sheikh Mohamed Bin Rashed Al-Maktoum, heir apparent and defence minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), decided last month to rename the event the Arab Strategic Forum. Nabil Al-Youssef, deputy chairman of the ASF organising committee, told journalists that "the ASF is an important opportunity for decision-makers in the Arab region to get acquainted with the views of heads of states, key officials and leading intellectuals and to reflect on the immense challenges facing the Arab world. The ASF will look into Arab political, security, economic, and social problems and look for mechanisms that may help the Arab world emerge from its difficult circumstances." The ASF will cover a number of crucial political issues, such as the development of political regimes and the ongoing quest for reform, democratisation and transparency, he added. The ASF is the largest such event in the region. It will look into a host of problems that have surfaced in the Arab world and subsequently magnified due to regional and international factors. "There is a need to implement effective plans and strategies to emerge from the current difficulties," Al-Youssef remarked. "Through cooperation with a group of leading experts and specialists, we will formulate perspectives on how best to achieve comprehensive development and envision a more stable future." Sources close to the ASF have told Al- Ahram Weekly that the ASF will focus on security in the Arab world during the first day of its discussions. An important aspect of this is the question of what would happen should Arab countries sign bilateral agreements with countries or groups from outside the region, but fail to develop a joint Arab security system. The ASF would also look into continued border disputes between Arab countries and the consequent rise in military expenditure. Another scenario concerns the possibility of Arab countries or organisations coming under military attack in the course of the war against terror. The participants are to look into the possibility of an Arab, or at least Gulf, security system emerging by 2020. The ASF is also to consider the impact of the Arab-Israeli conflict on security and stability in the region. In addition, experts will examine the economic and social cost of instability in the region as well as the long-term impact of US intervention in Iraq. On its second day, the ASF is scheduled to look into economic and business issues in the region. In particular, the participants will discuss the prospects of Arab economic integration being achieved by 2020. The investment climate and the future of economic and financial reform in Arab countries will also feature prominently in the discussions. Notably, effective measures will be sought to stimulate local and foreign investment and allocate the revenues of privatisation in a manner conducive to development. Countries most dedicated to stimulating economic growth are likely to perform better than others, one source said. The future of OPEC and the oil industry will also be examined. The third and last day of the event will be dedicated to human development and the technological and information revolution. The information society is still a distant goal in this region, one source remarked, because educational systems, social structures and economic problems seem to slow the Arab world's quest for technological advancement. The ASF will look into means of spreading knowledge throughout society. This will be done by focussing in particular on the impediments to technology and knowledge and the development of the educational system. Also on its last day, the ASF will look into the problem of unemployment. As more and more young people come into the labour market, jobs remain in short supply. This is partly due to the inability of Arab economies to generate sufficient jobs, and partly due to the skewed nature of the educational system. The ASF final session will discuss "the rise and fall of countries and institutions". In that session, experts will discuss the course of progress in other countries and the role of Arab intellectuals in envisioning a better future for the region.
