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Postponing the elections?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 09 - 12 - 2004

Fears of losing their political influence run high among Iraq's Sunni community, many of whom wish to see the January elections delayed, reports Suha Ma'ayeh from Amman
Sunni Iraqis in Jordan asked Iraq's interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi last week to postpone the Iraqi elections for at least six months, warning of repercussions that could spill over into the entire region should they be excluded from the political process.
Sunni Iraqi tribal leader, Majed Ali Suleiman, a descendant of the Duleim tribe that enjoys a wide demographic base in the Iraqi Anbar region, said he asked Allawi in "an informal meeting" to try and delay the elections. He made it clear that security is now the prime concern for Iraqis and must be achieved before the elections took place. "How can Iraqis cast their ballots, while my tribe and my family are living in tents?" he ironically asked from his upmarket flat in Amman. "How can a candidate meet the voters without means of communication? Should he move about on an American tank when promoting his electoral agenda?"
Over the past few weeks an estimated 200,000 Iraqis have fled Falluja, in the heart of Anbar Province, where Iraq has seen its heaviest fighting since early November.
Allawi is said to have met "personalities", mostly from the area of Ramadi, the embattled provincial capital of Anbar that lies just 30 miles west of the devastated city of Falluja.
Ever since Baghdad collapsed on 9 April 2003 the minority Sunni Muslims -- who dominated Iraq's political establishment under Saddam Hussein's rule -- have been worried about losing their influence should elections run according to schedule. Suleiman stated that Allawi was sympathetic to the Sunni concern during their meeting, which took place in the lobby of a five-star hotel in Amman. During the meeting, Allawi urged Sunni Muslims to participate in the upcoming January elections.
However, Suleiman -- a 57-year-old who has spent the past six years in Amman, away from what he termed "harassment" by the former regime -- argued that the decision to delay the elections is not in the hands of the Iraqi government. Instead, it is decided by the United Nations. While the Bush administration is determined to run the elections according to schedule, Suleiman warned that if so, "disaster will prevail," or possibly even a civil war could break out. Stating that "Iraq is caught in a wider conspiracy" he believes that this, easily, "could go beyond the borders and could, in-turn, inflame the entire region."
Ever since the establishment of modern Iraq in the 1920s, Sunnis have been the dominant sect throughout the Iraqi halls of power. Now, Sunni countries neighbouring Iraq fear that this sect could become marginalised in the electoral political process. There are growing concerns that the Shia will assume the bulk of authority and spread their influence from Iran, across Iraq, and even on to Lebanon where the Iranian backed Hizbullah movement is based.


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