Iran's nuclear policy has put the West to the test, reports Azadeh Moaveni from Tehran Iran's nuclear policy has put the West to the test, reports Azadeh Moaveni from Tehran Iran is quietly celebrating what it views as a major tactical advantage over Washington. Emboldened by political differences between the United States and Europe over how to approach Iran's nuclear programme, Tehran is increasingly doubtful of Washington's readiness or motivation to pursue a pre-emptive military strike option. Top diplomats from Britain, France and Germany, together with the European Union foreign policy chief, met Iranian officials in Brussels this week. Their objective was to hammer out a long-term resolution of Iran's nuclear ambitions, leading ultimately to a permanent abandonment of uranium enrichment. But riding high after a negotiation round in Paris last month -- where the Iranian team evaded referral to the United Nations Security Council by the International Atomic Energy Agency, escaping with only a temporary agreement to suspend enrichment -- a broad consensus has emerged in Tehran. It is now commonly held that the regime's strategy of avoiding political confrontation with the West without conceding anything significant during its pursuit of atomic power has been a success. A palpable air of confidence hung over an informal breakfast meeting last week, where former and current government officials, analysts, and consultants, gathered to discuss Iran's position under a second Bush administration. In marked contrast to similar discussions held shortly after President Bush declared Iran part of an "axis of evil", where official high anxiety poked through talk of conciliation, the assembly placidly walked through all the reasons why an ascendant Iran was immune to Western pressure. One former senior official argued that a second term Bush administration would be less accommodating to the pro-Israel lobbies, and that a perked up public relations effort could head off Washington's suspicion that Tehran seeks nuclear weapons. Most participants agreed that over-extension in Iraq, and a weak US dollar, had shrunk America's capacity for invoking pre-emptive defence and pursuing brinkmanship overseas. "Right now America doesn't care about other states, it wants to resolves its own problems," said a prominent consultant. Washington's disagreement, both internally and with Europe, over how aggressively to address concerns about Iranian proliferation, provides the Islamic republic a window of opportunity to strengthen its position, it was concluded. "The paradigm has shifted in Tehran towards becoming an economic and technological power," said another participant. "No one can mess with us if we reach that point." Point by point, participants ticked off all the reasons why America was hamstrung: its vulnerability in fragile Iraq; a deep aversion to pinpoint strikes, which would infuriate Iranians and cost Washington the last pro-US society in the region; China's expanding economic and political role in the region. Only one lone voice dissented against the rosy outlook. "Washington takes proliferation very seriously," a private- sector consultant said. "This will have repercussions." The warning was not taken up, and the meeting adjourned. This sort of revitalised Iranian assurance, born of and now seeking to exploit the gap between the US and European positions, is precisely what European diplomats close to the negotiation process have feared all along. After European and Iranian negotiators signed an interim agreement over enrichment suspension last month in Paris, Tehran struck upon an ambiguity in the text and demanded to retain 20 centrifuges for research purposes. Diplomats and analysts hold up such manoeuvring as evidence of Iran's mounting boldness in flouting the spirit of the negotiation process. "At best, [European diplomacy] is just delaying the issue," said a senior Western diplomat in Tehran. "At worst it's giving Tehran cover to pursue its activities, and we're falling into the trap." Iranian officials have made clear that Europe's ultimate ambition -- convincing Iran to permanently abandon its right to the fuel cycle under the non-proliferation treaty -- is out of the question without a far-reaching deal that would effectively normalise Iran's ties with the United States. "We need a framework of security and political cooperation, and a set of regional guarantees against the dangers the Islamic republic could face," said Ayatollah Hassan Rowhani, the head nuclear negotiator, at a press conference last week. Insisting that concessions are contingent on US safeguards against regime change is easy, as long as the system knows there is no appetite in Washington for dealing with the Islamic republic. Some analysts in Tehran, both secular and hard-line, argue the Iranian team should press for better bargains, now that the West is divided and unable to produce sufficiently attractive carrots or intimidating enough sticks. Newspapers here ran photos of Iranian negotiators leaving the Paris meeting wreathed in smiles. "But what did they get in Paris concretely?" demanded an analyst who asked to remain anonymous. "Did they get cash? Did they get promises on anything useful, like excepting civilian aircraft from US sanctions? They're trained to do damage control, and nothing more." With little sign of a shift in Washington, Iranian officials are relaxing in their positions, comfortable with a horizon of interim deals they can neuter through nit-picking. As one adviser to the president said: "I anticipate years of this kind of challenge. Years."
