Reading what's being written takes the joy out of Christmas. As such, Dina Ezzat finds no reason to be merry It does not seem that the Middle East is expecting much from the New Year. As 2004 comes to a close, most of the problems of the region seem remote from a settlement -- too complex to expect any breakthroughs next year. Even the ultra-optimist must have noticed that neither the news pages nor the opinion articles offered any reason to hope that things will take a positive turn anytime soon. The run-up to Palestinian and Iraqi elections seemed far from smooth and expectations of any positive developments on either fronts are not high. The same goes for Syria which seems certain to face more diplomatic, if not military, pressure in 2005. Sudan and Somalia are not much better off. It was not just Arab countries that are facing tough times ahead. Arab sub-regional blocs are apparently going through difficulties as well with the Gulf Cooperation Council demonstrating unusual inter-member disagreement over their respective relationships with the US. And the Maghreb Union, in a state of flux for long, might suffer a mortal blow next year if Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi continues to subject the North African bloc to his brand of shock waves, while two of its key members, Algeria and Morocco, continue a long and complicated struggle over the Western Sahara. "What new political environment are we talking about?" was the headline of the editorial of the daily Palestinian Al-Quds on Saturday. According to the Palestinian paper, all officials, from within and outside the Middle East who have been speaking about a new phase of relations in the region and a new environment where Palestinian-Israeli peace could be made, were proven wrong by the recent wave of Israeli military attacks against Palestinians. These recent attacks, Al-Quds wrote, "prove that the Israeli government is still pursuing its aggression against the Palestinian people and its leadership and that it is still determined to undermine legitimate Palestinian rights." This was not just a Palestinian concern. Arab commentators, even in government- associated papers in capitals that have particularly easy-going relations with Israel, seemed to be in agreement that making peace with the current Israeli government cannot go beyond being a Christmas wish -- one that the Santa in the White House is unlikely to grant. According to an article in the daily UAE Al- Bayan by Abdel-Wahab El-Messiri on Saturday, any careful analyst who closely monitors President Bush's actions and statements would have to conclude that it is unrealistic to expect a fair and just peace to be brokered by the American president who promised Israel that it will not have to meet any of the Palestinians' crucial demands -- as legitimate as they are by international law. US foreign policy in the Middle East, El- Messiri said, is based on two principles: "divide and rule" and maintaining a "controlled imbalance". "Today, the US is no longer concerned about showing bias towards Israel especially since the Arab reaction is often wishy-washy and does not go beyond a statement or two expressing disappointment. These days it is too much to expect condemnation." Indeed, according to an article published by Al-Hayat on Tuesday, Abdullah Iskandar, talking about US foreign policy in Syria, described Bush as a cowboy who applies the concept of stubbornness in foreign policy. "Had Bush been running a politically insignificant, small country, then his behaviour [as a political cowboy] would have been perceived in an entertaining light. The trouble, however, is that he is running the world's leading power whose stances have a direct impact on world developments," Iskandar wrote. As a reader would have easily discerned from the Arab press, the Palestinians' concerns went beyond Israel. Despite some five weeks of direct and indirect dialogue between the Palestinian Authority and the resistance movements of Hamas and Jihad, the inter-Palestinian house has not yet been put in order. In an interview with the daily Lebanese Al- Mustaqbal on Monday, Hamas's representative in Lebanon Osama Hemdan clearly stated that his movement is not willing to grant Palestinian presidential candidate Mahmoud Abbas his request for a ceasefire and that Hamas -- and for that matter Jihad -- will not easily agree to join a national unity Palestinian government unless common guidelines about the future phase of the Palestinian struggle for independence are laid down. "What we should have now is a set of common and general terms of reference for all Palestinian people and all Palestinian political powers that can direct all efforts to serve the Palestinian cause," Hemdan told Al- Mustaqbal. On the same day, Al-Mustaqbal ran an interview with Iraqi Minister of Culture Moufid Al-Jazeeri who readily admitted that his government "does not have enough forces to adequately handle the security situation" and consequently it would be too difficult to expect the present Iraqi government to adequately prepare for the coming elections. Al-Jazeeri was candid enough to tell Al- Mustaqbal that 2005 will bring another unresolved problem to Iraq: the failed attempts to establish national reconciliation in the post- Saddam Hussein era. "It would therefore be an exercise of political crystal ball reading if one was to try to predict the outcome of the upcoming Iraqi elections," he said. Meanwhile, the editors and researchers of the now annual Arab Development Report have been receiving an alarming message: they are coming under increasing pressure from Arab capitals and Washington alike to censor criticism in the report to be issued about the state of development in Arab countries in 2004. According to press reports, some Arab countries objected to references made by the report about the coercion of certain political groups while others were disturbed by direct and indirect references on cases of past and possible unorthodox accession to power. As for the US, it objected to references made by the report on the impact the American invasion had on development in Iraq and that of the Israeli occupation on development in Palestine. In statements in the Lebanese daily As-Safir on Monday, Nader El-Fergani, editor of the report, said Washington had asked for omissions and changes to be made in the report and that it threatened to deny the UNDP access to funding worth $12 million if amendments were not made.
