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Will they, won't they?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 01 - 2005

In spite of protests by key Iraqi figures, the US occupation authorities and the Iraqi interim government insist on holding the elections on time, reports Nermeen Al-Mufti from Baghdad
The new year began as the last one ended, in fear, horror and bloodshed. The operations mounted by the Al- Qaeda branch in Mesopotamia are continuing. The group has just claimed responsibility for series of bombings in Baghdad.
The deadline for registration of candidates for the upcoming Iraqi elections ended in mid-December. Since then, campaigning began in earnest. The elections are scheduled for 30 January, but the country is still embroiled in violence and political turmoil. Up to 83 electoral lists have been fielded by political groups and independent figures. The number of candidates on each list ranges between 70, as in the case of Adnan Pachachi's Independent Iraqi Alliance, and the 275 maximum set by the Independent Higher Commission for Elections.
Two weeks have passed since the campaigning began in earnest. And yet, most Iraqis are having trouble recognising the names of most candidates or identifying the political programme of the electoral lists. This being the case are likely to be tainted by chaos and ambiguity. Millions of dollars have been allocated to the Higher Commission for Elections, but this did not stop the torrent of violence. Gunmen have blown up candidate registration centres and voting centres in Al-Huweijah, 70kms west of Kirkuk. A guard at a voting centre has been killed in Al-Amil neighbourhood of Baghdad. Hundreds of voter registration forms have been burnt in Mosul and Diali. Shops have been burnt down in Baghdad and other parts of the country for distributing the registration forms along with the monthly food ration.
The attack on Falluja highlighted the US and Iraqi authorities intention to hold "free and fair" elections. The same attack strengthened the resolve of Sunni politicians to boycott the elections. With the Iraqi Islamic Party, a key Sunni group, having pulled out of the race, it is safe to assume that most Sunnis would not be taking part in the polls. The head of the Higher Commission for Elections, along with members of the committee and polling staff in Mosul, a total of 700 people, have resigned on mass once the Islamic party boycotted the elections. It is possible that it did so because of threats they had received.
Ali Al-Diwani, representative of the Higher Commission for Elections in Mosul, confirmed the mass resignation to Al-Ahram Weekly. "We're no longer involved in the elections and have renounced what we used to do." The mass resignation comes at a time when the Iraqi government is trying to push through with the elections. The government now has to print new registration forms instead of those that have been burnt, a task that would normally take up to one month. Moreover, the higher Commission will have to hire new representative and staff, a daunting mission considering the daily violence in Mosul. As things stand, it is hard to see how elections can be held at all in Mosul.
If held, what can the elections do for the Iraqis? "End the occupation," says Ahmed Al-Sameraei, professor at the Al- Mustansariya University. "Millions of Iraqis will go to the polls, braving possible attacks, without knowing the names of the candidates, as the elections are held by list, and without knowing what the goals of the candidates are, as the campaigning was insufficient," he adds.
The candidacy lists have catchy names: the Iraq list, the security and justice list, the security and stability list. Dozens of signs are in display in Baghdad, but many get torn down on the same day they are posted. "Let the polls be our answer to the car bombings and the insecurity," one such sign announces. A candidate standing near a poster showing him smiling to potential voters says that he mainly wants to bring electricity back.
There is no clear mention of the occupation except in a few lists, including the list of the Iraqi Communist Party. The Iraqi Independent Block, led by Ghassan Al-Atiyah, calls bluntly for ending the occupation. The Iyad Allawi list is running under the slogan, "for a strong, secure, prosperous, democratic, and unified Iraq."
The Unified Iraqi Alliance, which includes the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI, as well as Ahmed Chalabi and senior figures from across the political spectrum calls for "a timetable for the withdrawal of the multinational forces". Adnan Pachachi, whose party is part of that same list, has made it clear that he wishes for the elections to be postponed.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a veteran Iraqi politician says, "it is clear that Sunni deputies will be appointed, now that the Islamic party has withdrawn and the Association of Muslim Scholars is boycotting the elections." Already, some Sunni figures are working behind the scenes to secure appointment to the parliament. Such figures will only represent themselves, says a young politician from the Independent National Group, an organisation that pulled out of the elections after the Falluja attack. "In the six dominantly Sunni governorates, the elections would not succeed. What type of constitution are we to expect from elections that are held under occupation and right after the bloodshed in Falluja?" he adds.
"I don't believe that the Americans are going to agree to the Kurdish demands concerning Kirkuk and one of the two top government posts. Nor are the Americans going to agree to the Shia request for federalism and a majority in the National Assembly, nor to an Iranian-style regime," says the above- mentioned Iraqi veteran politician.
The signals are all mixed. Religious edicts tell Iraqis that they would go to hell if they don't vote (according to Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani) or if they do (according to the Association of Muslim Scholars). Leaflets urge elections or the boycott thereof. Fancy posters, colourful and costly, are being torn down by thousands from Iraqi walls. And the public lives in fear, power cuts are common and, for the past two months, food rations failed to reach various areas of Iraq either because of shortages or attacks on trucks. And the government blames it all on terrorism.
The elections are still on. The Higher Commission for Elections is not qualified to call off the polls, as the country's transitional law stipulates that elections must be held before the end of January.


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