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Who jumped the gun?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 29 - 04 - 2010

Critics, governments and specialised physicians have criticised the WHO for being hasty in proclaiming the H1N1 virus a pandemic. Reem Leila reports
Was the swine flu virus a pandemic? The question has been recently raised by many European countries, governments, doctors and critics. There have been allegations that the H1N1 virus is fake, scientifically wrong and historically inaccurate, all boosting the profits of many international pharmaceutical companies. Most European countries invested millions of Euros in buying vaccines which are now deemed unnecessary.
There were assumptions of a global death toll in the hundreds of thousands, but a year after H1N1 was first discovered in Mexico, only 17,000 people are known to have died in the world, around 300 in Egypt, far less than the annual death toll from seasonal flu.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has been blamed for exaggerating the severity of the illness, an accusation strongly denied by Ahmed Abdel-Latif, director of the WHO office in Cairo who said that the WHO headquarters had noted with concern the circulation of inaccurate information and statements regarding the H1N1 virus. Abdel-Latif quoting Samlee Plianbangchang, WHO regional director for South- East Asia, said, "the world is going through a real pandemic. This current influenza pandemic is a scientifically well-documented event in which the emergence and spread of a new influenza virus has caused unusual patterns of disease throughout the world."
Abdel-Latif pointed out that the swine flu virus had led to patterns of death and illness not normally seen in influenza infections. Most of the deaths caused by swine flu have occurred among younger people, including those who were otherwise healthy. "Pregnant women, children and people of any age with certain chronic lung or other medical conditions appear to be at higher risk of more complicated or severe illness. Many of the severe cases have been due to viral pneumonia, which is harder to treat than bacterial pneumonia usually associated with seasonal influenza. Many of these patients have required intensive care," stated Abdel-Latif. "The country's hospitals, laboratories and clinics are good proof that there was a real pandemic and that there was not any exaggeration in dealing with the virus."
According to Abdel-Latif, any suggestion that the pandemic is an exaggeration means to ignore recent history and science and to trivialise the death of thousands of people all over the world and the many additional serious illness experienced by others.
Abdel-Rahman Shahin, official spokesman of the Ministry of Health, agrees with Abdel-Latif. Shahin said the number of cases in Egypt until now had reached 16,238 while the number of deaths is 300. "The claims stating that the pandemic was overplayed is untrue as the WHO is not the only source of information. Governments and states were also reporting H1N1 fatalities and infections. Laboratories in Egypt and all over the world detected the virus and identified it. So it is true and we definitely did not overreact," stated Shahin. "We are still witnessing cases up until now but the numbers are very few. This is because the virus is passing through phases and it has declined since mid-February."
Shahin stressed, however, that the pandemic had not come to an end. "Winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere now. By August, if few swine flu cases appear there, then it is very possible we might not have another swine flu wave, and the opposite is true."
According to Shahin, unlike the 1918 virus which killed more than 30 million people in six months, due to the quick reaction of governments, better means of communication, and an increase in people's awareness, the situation is under control. "All these elements helped us as well as other governments to quickly contain the virus and reduce its effect."
Shahin did say that Egypt's Health Minister Hatem El-Gabali had announced two reservations on the way the WHO is dealing with the crisis. According to Shahin, El-Gabali, along with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Abul-Gheit, sent an official letter to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon calling on the WHO to base its decision to raise the pandemic level from one phase to another upon the number of deaths against the number of infections, and not according to the geographical spread as the organisation did.
"The minister requested WHO to make its decisions based on a severity index but they did not respond," stated Shahin.
Also, Egypt was against the way the vaccine was distributed among countries. "Most governments of developing countries were in an awkward situation. Many couldn't buy enough amounts of the vaccine. The vaccine's amounts in any country according to the international standards must be 3-5 per cent of the country's population," Shahin stated.
Egypt was among the countries which were able to contain the crisis. "We imported 1.9 million doses of the vaccine. The remaining five million were cancelled and the ministry did not pay for it.
"We have vaccinated 73,000 pilgrims, 22,000 students and more than 150,000 health workers," Shahin said. Dealing with the crisis cost the Ministry of Health LE200 million between importing the vaccine, masks and detergents. "This amount is trivial when compared to the millions of Euros and dollars which other countries have lost during the crisis," Shahin added.


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