As the number of street demonstrations in Egypt increases, 2005 may well turn into a year of major political upheavals, reports Gamal Essam El-Din Anti-government street protests, including demonstrations against the prospect of President Hosni Mubarak running for a fifth term, have in recent months become a defining feature of Egypt's political landscape. The remarkable rise in street demonstrations in the last two weeks -- which now involve university students in several cities -- is quickly becoming a thorn in the regime's side. On Tuesday some 4,000 Islamist students demonstrated at Al-Azhar University in Cairo, while thousands others demonstrated in Cairo's Helwan and Ain Shams universities, and in Kafr Al-Sheikh and Mansoura. Abdel-Halim Qandil, editor of the Nasserist Al-Arabi newspaper, believes the demonstrations herald the coming of age of a new generation of political activists fed up with traditional opposition. "Traditionally you have to spend years petitioning for a license to form a political party only to face rejection -- possibly even detention -- in the end. And obtaining permission to hold a demonstration, well that's just pie in the sky." This week's demonstrations followed the announcement, by Safwat El-Sherif, the ruling party's secretary-general, of a number of guidelines for reform, the latest being that there will never be a religious-based party in Egypt, a clear reference to the Muslim Brotherhood. Last Saturday the Parties' Court postponed its final verdict on the appeal filed by the Islamist-oriented Labour party until the Supreme Constitutional Court decides whether the political party law is constitutional in the first place. The Labour Party had asked the Parties' Court to revoke the Political Party Committee's 2000 decision to freeze its activities. Magdi Hussein, Labour Party secretary-general, insisted the Parties' Court decision would have no impact on the group. "The Labour Party," he said, "is a party that derives its legitimacy more from holding street protests and serving prison terms for fighting the corruption of high-profile officials. This is more effective than joining a national dialogue in which cardboard parties sit with the ruling party and appeal to El-Sherif for political reforms." What Hussein disparages as the cardboard opposition has recently been engaged in a series of national dialogue meetings -- 14 official opposition parties have held meetings with the NDP over the last three months. Tellingly, instead of forcing the NDP to accept an agenda of broad constitutional reforms ahead of next autumn's presidential and parliamentary elections the official opposition was invited by the NDP to join its battle against US pressure on Egypt "to lead the way" in regional democratisation. Hassan Abu Taleb, a senior researcher with Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, believes the regime's "embarrassing" response to both domestic and foreign pressure has fuelled street opposition. Unlike official opposition parties, unofficial dissent has opted for a more confrontational strategy that has garnered a great deal of attention and support, both locally and internationally. The examples of the Ukraine and Lebanon are increasingly cited. The broad coalition of Kifaya (Enough), or the Popular Movement for Change, has spearheaded the strategy, staging seven public protests opposing the re-nomination of President Hosni Mubarak for a fifth term. Their success has led some Western commentators to speak of a "spring for Arab democracy". Kifaya's anti-Mubarak rallies, which raised the once unthinkable slogan "Enough to Mubarak", have encouraged other unofficial political forces to follow suit, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood. Abandoning a three-decade-old strategy of non-confrontation with the regime the Brotherhood opted to join the fray of street protests. Some commentators cite US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice's recent announcement that Islamist militancy is not as dangerous as maintaining the status quo in the Arab world as indirect US support for the Brotherhood to abandon passivity in favour of street demonstrations. This week, in an interview carried by the London-based Al-Hayat daily, El- Sherif responded to a question about "flirtation between the US [administration] and the Islamists," by describing the affair as an illicit one. Kifaya and the Brotherhood's increasingly vociferous street opposition does not, however, come without a price. Security forces, which had been relatively lenient in recent months over unlicensed protests, blocked demonstrations on 27 and 30 March by members of Kifaya and the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo and three other cities. A crack-down was also launched on the Muslim Brotherhood, with 200 of their members arrested. And this week Cairo airport officials prevented two leading Brotherhood members, Essam El-Erian and Gamal Heshmat, from leaving Egypt. Several commentators suggest that the delay in officially naming Mubarak as the NDP's presidential candidate reflects the difficulty in which the regime finds itself faced with foreign and domestic pressure. This week El-Sherif announced that the NDP's decision regarding its presidential candidate will be announced only after May's referendum on Mubarak's proposed amendment to the constitution, leading to speculation that President Mubarak may well announce his intention not to run, only to be persuaded after the NDP stages a campaign to mobilise popular support for his candidacy.
