More than a year before the 2011 presidential elections, Egyptians are already electing their next president on Facebook, writes Mohamed El-Sayed "Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not be president. Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not have been the nominee," said Arianna Huffington, editor-in-chief of America's well-known The Huffington Post, a few months before Obama was elected as US president against all the odds and contrary to most expectations. Obama's campaign changed the way politicians in the US organise their supporters, advertise to voters, defend themselves against attack and communicate with their constituents. Obama used the Internet, especially YouTube and Facebook, to organise his supporters in a way that would in the past have required an army of volunteers and organisers on the ground. Obama's innovative use of social-networking sites for political purposes has since inspired people the world over -- and Egypt is no exception. With Egypt's presidential elections drawing nigh and scheduled for September 2011, Egyptians started naming their favourite candidates a year ago by creating hundreds of groups and pages on Facebook in support of tens of figures for the country's top post. The list of candidates has ranged from politicians, military figures, actors, singers, TV presenters, preachers, footballers and even belly dancers. But perhaps the most bizarre group on Facebook is the one supporting former US president Bill Clinton for the Egyptian presidency, which has attracted 15 members so far. The first group to appear on Facebook was Awzinak (we want you), which supports Gamal Mubarak, head of the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) Policies Committee and the younger son of President Mubarak, to become Egypt's next president. The group has attracted around 8,000 supporters, and it is one of 11 similar groups created for the same purpose. "We want you because you have given a lot to Egypt by heading the National Democratic Party's Policies Committee, and because you have worked for the interests of this country in silence," reads a statement from the group. Despite the fact that the younger Mubarak, who has been rising through the NDP's upper echelons since 2002, has not -- yet -- proclaimed an interest in running in the presidential elections, his supporters in Facebook groups amount to more than 20,000 people. However, not all Facebook users are his fans. "No to Gamal Mubarak" is the name of one of five groups that oppose his candidacy. These groups have attracted around 10,000 people against the "bequeathing of the presidency to Gamal Mubarak". Aside from their support or opposition for Gamal Mubarak's candidacy, such sites have sparked a spate of discussions on Facebook that have led to the creation of hundreds of other groups supporting other public figures for the country's top post. The charismatic present secretary-general of the Arab League and former foreign minister Amr Moussa is the second candidate to be nominated on "Facebook Republic", as it has been dubbed by some pundits. Five groups attracting some 15,000 members of the social-networking site are supporting Moussa's candidacy for the presidency. The list also includes the famous preacher Amr Khaled, for whom two groups have been created, attracting more than 4,000 fans. Chief of General Intelligence Omar Suleiman, for whom three groups were created last year, is also among the contenders. The Facebook community has also suggested Tohami, a comic character who appears in a promo produced by the Melody Movies channel, for the top post. Famous belly- dancer Fifi Abdu also features prominently among the virtual candidates. However, the most significant development in the virtual presidential battle arose last September when Mahmoud Adel, a 22-year-old accountant, created the "Mohamed El-Baradei for the presidency in 2011" group, which puts its weight behind the former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has attracted over 220,000 members so far, making it the biggest group on the social-networking site supporting a candidate for the Egyptian presidency. "I created this group in August 2009 on my own initiative," Adel commented. "I thought El-Baradei was the right alternative for the president of Egypt, and by creating this group we managed to convince El-Baradei himself to say that he might run for the presidency, as he feels that a considerable number of young people are ready to back him." Adel's group was the driving force behind the sprouting of over 120 groups on the site in support of El-Baradei's candidacy. The steady increase in the number of these groups and in their memberships, now amounting to over 350,000 fans, was apparently buoyed by El-Baradei's announcement late last year that he might run in the 2011 presidential elections if constitutional obstacles standing in the way of independent candidates were removed. El-Baradei's many appearances in the traditional media, like the evening talk shows on the independent satellite channels and in long interviews with independent newspapers, have also catapulted him to the top of the virtual candidate charts. "El-Baradei's appearances in the traditional media, like newspapers and talk shows like Al-Ashira Masaan on the satellite channel Dream TV, have helped increase the fan base of the group by 16,000 members a day," Adel said. While Adel has not been involved in politics before, Mustafa El-Badawi, a 34-year-old lawyer from Beni Sweif and the creator of the "We want you" and "Supporters of Gamal Mubarak" groups on Facebook supporting Mubarak junior as presidential candidate, is a veteran political activist by virtue of his membership of the NDP. Even though the party has not yet named its candidate in the presidential elections, party members like El-Badawi have volunteered their support for Gamal Mubarak as Egypt's next president. "I felt it was my duty to create a group supporting Gamal Mubarak for the presidency, especially after many groups had appeared on Facebook criticising him," said El-Badawi. Rumours had it that NDP officials had called upon young party members to create such groups, but El-Badawi emphatically denies receiving any instructions from the party. "I was not asked by any official in the NDP to launch my groups. They are my brainchild," he stressed. "I really admire Gamal Mubarak and want him to run in the upcoming elections in case President Mubarak does not himself run." The creator of the group supporting Bill Clinton for Egypt's next president has a rather different motive. "As long as we don't have a suitable president for our country, we should hire Clinton instead. Since he has ruled the world's most powerful country, we will benefit a great deal from him," the creator of the group said. Young people, like Salma El-Daly, an MA student in New York, have also used the virtual battle over Egypt's next president to have fun. El-Daly appears in video footage posted on Facebook, proclaiming her candidacy in the elections. Even though her group is intended to be just for fun, it too has attracted around 4,000 supporters. "I wanted to send people the message that they have the right not only to elect someone, but also to run in the elections themselves," El-Daly said. "I haven't chosen my favourite candidate in the upcoming presidential elections yet, and I don't belong to any political party or movement. I'm just like any other Egyptian who seeks reform," she said. In a country that is obsessed with soccer, footballers have also carved a niche for themselves in the online presidential elections. Mohamed Nagui Gedo, Egypt's top goal-scorer who helped the national team to its seventh continental title in January, features prominently in the online presidential race. On the information page on Gedo's Facebook group, which has thus far attracted over 500 people, the creator of the group cites his reasons for naming Egypt's most famous footballer as a candidate in the presidential elections. "He helped make people happy for a couple of weeks [during the African Cup of Nations], while others have been making the Egyptian people sad for years," the statement read. In general, the Facebook groups feature the latest news about each candidate and links to photos, articles and videos supporting them. There are also discussion walls where members can debate ideas about how best to promote their favourite candidate. However, hurling insults at current officials remains a common feature of the discussion boards of many groups. While the groups are monitored by the security services, according to a report issued by the international NGO Reporters sans Frontières last year, the Facebook groups are secured by the company so it is difficult to hack them. "Sometimes the group is attacked in the hope that the site's managers will block the group," said Adel. "But we manage to parry such attacks quickly in order to avoid the possibility of seeing the group closed down." The mushrooming of the groups has perplexed observers, who disagree on the reasons behind their emergence and their potential impact on the Egyptian political scene. "The extensive use of Facebook by a wide range of people in Egypt has created optimism that an electronic political struggle could mark a breakthrough in the stagnant political scene," opines writer and columnist Yassin Ezz El-Arab. The rise of the social-networking site as a medium for people to express their political views has also attracted many hitherto non-politicised people to engage in politics, even if it's still in the virtual realm. "Through Facebook, many categories of people have been mobilised despite the fact that these people have never been involved in politics before, either because they feared doing so or because they were apathetic," Ezz El-Arab added. While some analysts believe that the online political debate is an indication of an increase in public discontent, others point to a return of politics to Egypt. "Facebook has turned politically apathetic citizens into political activists through posting on site walls or people joining groups supporting a presidential candidate with a stroke of the keyboard and without paying a price for doing so," Ezz El-Arab pointed out. Practising politics on the ground in Egypt is not always a safe business, and more often than not it comes with a price. News reports last month said that activists had been detained for trying to stick up posters calling on people to support El-Baradei. "Political activism in cyberspace is safe and comes without paying a price in the real world," Diaa Rashwan, an expert at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), said. Amr Hashim Rabei, an expert in political parties at the ACPSS, concurs. Facebook is a state-of-the- art tool for launching political campaigns, he says, and it has largely taken over from more traditional physical banners and posters, making it easy for political activists to use it rather than taking to the streets. "Facebook is a safe means of launching political campaigns, and Facebook activists are unlikely to fall into the hands of the security services," Rabei said. "If someone puts up a banner in the street supporting El-Baradei, he will probably be detained by the police. But this is highly unlikely to happen on the Internet." Adel agrees to a certain extent. "In the light of the tightly controlled political scene in Egypt at the moment, most young people resort to politics on Facebook. However, people involved in politics on Facebook would also like to take to the streets, but they are still afraid to do so." For his part, El-Badawi said that "Egypt's lack of present political activism has caused many people to resort to the Internet in order to speak their minds. Such virtual activists do not need to go to a meeting of a political party or group in order to join them. Political activism on the Internet is available with a stroke of the button on your PC." Are people who join political groups on Facebook also ready to take to the streets to impose their demands? "Yes," says Adel, who believes that at some point members of the groups will cross the fear barrier and take to the streets when asked to do so. "Facebook is a temporary means of speaking one's mind about political issues," he said. "But a considerable number of people are ready to hold protests on the ground when asked to do so." He cites the example of the recruitment of over 12,000 volunteers nationwide to coordinate collecting signatures supporting El-Baradei's statements about change. "We also tested the members of the group when El-Baradei returned to Cairo last month. Around 2,000 members went to Cairo Airport to welcome him. People are thirsty for change, and they will take action when called upon to do so." Yet, El-Badawi is also sure that tens of thousands of members of Gamal Mubarak's group will also act if they are asked to do so. "I only accept the membership of people who I know will act when they are asked to," El-Badawi said. "I have tested this on more than one occasion, for example when I managed to gather thousands of people supporting NDP parliamentary activities." However, despite the social-networking site's evident success, the use of Facebook for political ends, especially by opposition groups, is still seen by some as a distraction from real politics. According to Yasser El-Wardani, a researcher who has carried out research on opposition groups on the Internet, the authorities could be tolerating opposition on the Internet as a way of encouraging people to give vent to their discontents. "The government might have refrained from blocking Facebook after the April 2008 civil-disobedience movement, because it could serve as a means for people safely to vent their anger at its policies," he said. "People can speak their minds in the virtual world, and then resume their normal lives in the real world." This doesn't cause a headache for the authorities, El-Wardani said. Many analysts insist that triggering political change through the Internet is just a dream. "When it comes to taking to the streets in support of their views, only 10 to 25 per cent at best of the members of these groups take part. Most members of virtual groups are not ready to take the risk of participating in real protests," Rabei said. Rashwan also believes that "achieving political change through Facebook is just a virtual dream that people should not bet on achieving." This is bad news -- at least for supporters of Bill Clinton for Egypt's next president. The number of Internet users in Egypt reached 14.5 million in comparison to 300,000 in 1999. Around three million Egyptians have accounts on Facebook. They represent one per cent of the number of people on the social networking site worldwide. Egypt topped the Arab countries in terms of Facebook users and came 23rd globally. source: The Ministers Council Centre for Information and Decision-Making Support
