Mona El-Nahhas explores opposition plans for the upcoming presidential elections Four opposition parties have already decided to take part in this September's presidential elections; they've named their candidates -- Khaled Mohieddin (from the leftist Tagammu Party), Noman Gomaa (chairman of the liberal Wafd Party), Ayman Nour (chairman of the liberal Al-Ghad Party), and Mamdouh Qenawi (head of the newly-licensed Free Constitutional Party) -- and even think they might have a chance, as long as the overall political climate improves. One key opposition demand is lifting the state of emergency, in effect since 1981, which hinders their ability to communicate directly with the public. "How can we reach the people under laws banning rallies?" Qenawi asked. They also want the judiciary to be given full control over every stage of the elections, from checking voters' lists to announcing election results, without any interference from the Interior Ministry. The committee in charge of supervising the electoral process, meanwhile, should only include judges -- whose neutrality is guaranteed -- and not public figures, as the NDP is suggesting. That the media is dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is also a major concern. Opposition leaders wonder if they would be allowed to appear in a six-hour TV special to expound on their campaign platforms, as incumbent President Mubarak has had the opportunity to do last week. The time factor -- that elections are set to take place in just over four months -- also weighs heavily on their ability to conduct effective campaigns. Some parties are waiting to see what President Hosni Mubarak will do. The Liberal Party said it would refrain from nominating a candidate if Mubarak decided to run. "However, if the NDP nominated another candidate, we'll participate," said party chairman Helmi Salem. Nasserist Party leader Diaaeddin Dawoud said his party would wait until the People's Assembly finishes its deliberations on nomination conditions. "We are in no hurry to take a decision," Dawoud said. Parliament should be done with its discussion by 10 May. Smaller parties with little grassroots support have already put their hats in with the incumbent. "This is the least we can do for a man who initiated an unprecedented initiative in Egypt's history -- for the first time, people will have the right to decide their future and choose their ruler," Al-Geel Al-Demoqrati (Democratic Generation) Party Chairman Nagui El-Shehabi told Al-Ahram Weekly. El-Shehabi said Mubarak was a sure winner, since "none of the four opposition candidates stands a chance against him." In any case, El-Shehabi said, nearly all the existing parties, including the NDP, were lacking in popular support, because the public had lost trust in them. Al-Ghad Party Chairman Nour was more optimistic about his own chances of success, which he said would be very high "if true democracy was applied". The public meetings he'd been organising in different governorates prove him right, Nour said. "Our bet is on the current state of anger, and people's will to change." Nour himself is mired, however, in a party registration fraud case that will be tried by a Cairo criminal court on 28 June. Nour said the case against him was fabricated to undermine his popularity with the public. As a result of the strong US backing Nour received during his 40- day detention earlier this year (the State Department repeatedly called for his release), he has often been portrayed as having "suspect" links to the United States. A defiant Nour said his popularity had not been affected by all the negative publicity "because people are smart enough to know who the real US agents are." Similar allegations have been hurled at the Popular Movement for Change, also known as Kifaya (Enough). Accusations of having received US funding were groundless, the movement's leaders have repeatedly said. Mainly known for their groundbreaking anti-Mubarak demonstrations, Kifaya has decided, for now, not to name its candidate for the presidency. "We'll wait until the People's Assembly endorses the conditions for nomination next Tuesday," the movement's Abul-Ela Madi told the Weekly. "If they set down extreme conditions for independent candidates, it would be better for us to withdraw from such an absurd game," Madi said. It would be unconstitutional to shut the door in the face of all independent candidates, he argued, only allowing state-sanctioned parties to run. The contest, as it stood now, was a government-concocted scenario aiming to provide the notion of democratic elections. "It's unimaginable that people would vote for someone who's not even popular within his own party [a jibe at Wafd's Gomaa], or for a candidate in his 80s who previously resigned from the chairman's post of the Tagammu Party for health reasons," Madi said. If, however, the People's Assembly opted for reasonable nomination conditions, he said the Kifaya movement would surprise everyone with a candidate whose popularity would span the spectrum of Egyptian politics. As for Kifaya member Nour, Madi said, "he was representing his party, and not our movement, in the elections." The outlawed Muslim Brotherhood group also appeared to be adopting a wait-and-see policy, while taking for granted that the rules would be tailored to prevent their officially fielding a candidate. Deputy Supreme Guide Mohamed Habib predicted there would be very little public turnout if only party candidates could run. He suggested that independent candidates be required to obtain the support of 50,000 citizens. "If they insist on independent candidates getting endorsements from members of municipal councils and parliament, then they are clearly saying their talk about constitutional reform was not serious," he said. "As such, we would go back to square one. And 'free' elections would end up being nothing more than a dressed-up referendum," Habib said. Others are also critical of the ban on groups like the Brotherhood -- which have solid grassroots support that could be used in elections. "As a frozen party, we cannot even begin to think about the possibility of nominating a candidate," said Labour Party Secretary-General Magdi Hussein. The Islamist-oriented Labour Party, frozen since May 2000, looks set to sit out of the upcoming elections. "If we run as independents," Hussein said, "our task will be much more difficult. How would we get the approval of 20 per cent of the People's Assembly, Shura Council and municipal councils, the majority of whom belong to the NDP?" The only way the government could prove its good intentions, he said, would be to ensure reasonable nomination conditions. If that happens, Hussein said he would either run in the elections himself, or back an independent candidate with Islamist leanings.
