With the IDF poised for a full-scale offensive in Gaza, right wing settlers battling their own government give Abbas a temporary reprieve, reports Erica Silverman The escalation of violence between Israelis and Palestinians has all but ended the ceasefire agreed to in February, threatening to scotch Israel's disengagement from Gaza amid a power struggle between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas and a standoff between the Israeli government and settler leaders. Following a barrage of Qassam missiles fired by Palestinian resistance forces in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ominously ordered the IDF "to act without limitation to stop the strikes on Israeli communities". Thousands of Israeli troops and scores of tanks were quickly amassed along the Gaza border in preparation for a full-scale invasion. At the 11th hour, however, with meltdown reached in the clash between right wing settlers who refuse to vacate Gaza and the Sharon government determined to follow through on the disengagement plan, a full-blown invasion seemed postponed for now. Sources close to Sharon report that the Israeli premier is incensed, accusing settler leaders who organised the anti-pullout demonstration marching to Gush Katif of "diverting attention" from fighting terror and wasting the time of security forces. Israel's police Tuesday were placed on "state of emergency alert", a rare and highest alert status, with as many as 20,000 anti-disengagement demonstrators locked into the farming village of Kfar Maimon, 15 kilometres east of Gaza. While Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert boasted that Sharon was "not scared of 20,000 or 50,000 marching settlers", the question remained as to what would happen next within Gaza. IDF spokesperson Eitan Arusy stated that forces would remain in position "until it is clear there is a governmental organisation that will take care of security issues inside the Gaza Strip". Meanwhile, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office blasted the "total refusal of the PA to take active and sustained efforts to prevent terror" against Israel. "Arresting terrorists, collecting illegal weapons, and disbanding terrorist groups", were the necessary prerequisites for the PA to avoid an invasion, David Baker, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said. When questioned whether "terrorists" included Hamas leaders who are now elected officials, Baker declined to comment. For its part, the PA has sought to prevent Hamas's military wing from firing on Israel and Jewish settlements, and is negotiating with militant factions. PA police engaged in gun battles with Hamas on 14 and 15 July in an effort to stop them from firing Qassam rockets at Israeli targets, and more than 20 resistance group members have been killed by PA police in clashes. The recent escalation of violence ensued when an Islamic Jihad bomber from the West Bank village of Atil near Tulkarem blew himself up 12 July outside a shopping mall in Natanya, killing himself and five Israelis. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas immediately condemned the attack and Israel enacted a complete closure of the West Bank, entering Tulkarem the morning after, searching for Jihad members linked to the attack. Previously transferred to Palestinian control, Tulkarem remains under complete Israeli closure, the only access point for vehicles being Khirbet Jubara checkpoint south of the city. As Israeli forces began arresting scores of suspected Palestinian militants in raids on West Bank cities, Hamas responded firing mortar shells into Israel and Jewish settlements from Gaza, killing one Israeli woman in Siderot on 14 July. Subsequently, Israeli troops killed three Hamas fighters near the West Bank town of Salfit on 15 July. They had been "planning an attack" according to the IDF. Shortly after, an Israeli missile targeted a vehicle in Gaza City, claiming the lives of four Hamas members, along with several bystanders. Another senior Hamas commander was killed by a sniper shot to the neck on the roof of his house in Khan Younis on 17 July. That Israel has returned to extra-judicial killings foresworn when the ceasefire was agreed -- though it denies that the policy has been readopted -- killing eight Hamas members in the past week, is a clear message to Hamas that they will not be permitted to claim any type of victory as Israel disengages from the Gaza Strip. A Palestinian public opinion poll released this week found that 39.9 per cent of respondents believe that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is a result of pressure from the Palestinian resistance, with 43.9 per cent believing the pullout is an Israeli substitute for the roadmap. Until Tuesday's conflagration at Kfar Maimon, most analysts predicted an Israeli offensive into Gaza was most likely to occur after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departs following a diplomatic, calm-brokering visit later this week. Analyst Yossi Alpher, former senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, suggested "if the Bush administration was serious about intervention, Rice would be stationed in the region for a month, and not merely a few days." However, with police treatment of settlers inflaming one side of Israeli public opinion, and settler violence against the Israeli police inflaming the other, it is doubtful if Sharon can successfully refocus the Gaza issue on terrorism and give the green light to a bloody invasion. Israel's internal problems have given Abbas a moment to breathe. A security official from the Ministry of Defence stated, "Israel has prepared for a widespread invasion into the Gaza Strip, but is first giving the PA a chance to control the situation." The official declined to give a time frame for any Israeli action. Meanwhile, an Egyptian delegation arrived to mediate between the Palestinians and Israel, and to negotiate between Hamas and the PA. A relative de- escalation has followed, along with a recommitment from Hamas to the "conditional" ceasefire. With Israel waiting to see if Abbas has the authority to maintain security within the Palestinian territories, it is still the occupation itself that challenges the PA the most. The PA has control neither of Palestinian borders, airspace nor movement within the territories. Meanwhile, as one IDF spokesperson stated, "There is no joint effort here." Israel has been clear from the beginning that its disengagement plan is unilateral. Sharon prefers not to refer to Abbas as a viable negotiating partner, and improving the lives of Gaza's 1.3 million Palestinians is not on his agenda. What exactly is on his agenda remains obscure. It is perhaps ironic that Sharon's settler problem this week gave President Abbas space enough to piece back together the exploded ceasefire, but how long will security attention will be diverted to Kfar Maimon? Yet a major invasion of Gaza now would create an aftershock effect making it almost certain that if disengagement goes ahead -- and Sharon can afford nothing less -- Israel would be leaving under fire. That, to Sharon, is unacceptable. Shuffling too close to Abbas and appeasing the militant factions goes against the grain also. Meanwhile, settlers in Kfar Maimon were hoping to escalate the situation and galvanise public opinion ahead of a crucial Knesset vote, defeated on Wednesday, on delaying disengagement. "A lot of it is luck, a mortar can land in the desert or it can land in a kindergarten," says Uri Dromi, director of the Israeli Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. Perhaps luck more than design will determine the course of events between now and late August and the slated withdrawal.
