Hassan Abu Taleb* celebrates 20 years of The Arab Strategic Report The Arab Strategic Report is 20 years old. The release of the 2004/05 report marks the 20th anniversary of this annual publication. The expertise and effort that goes into this survey of domestic, regional and international affairs is a source of immense pride to all who have participated, including myself. More than 620 researchers have taken part in producing this excellent publication over the years. Our team has analysed momentous changes, including the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent shift from a bipolar world to one dominated by a single superpower. In 1989 and 1990 our experts described the consequences of the disappearance of the Soviet Union, and their predictions have turned out to be true in the international and regional arenas. The report has addressed changes in US strategy and their military, economic and political repercussions for the world and the region and offered in-depth analysis of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq throughout the 1990s and, subsequently, the US-UK invasion. The collapse of the Soviet Union, and the consequent supremacy of the US, provided ample opportunity for analysis. Our writers have been mostly of the opinion that a world with a single superpower is untenable and that sooner or later other powers will emerge to rival the US. In the first 10 issues of the report, covering 1985 to 1995, our writers discussed the potential rise of new powers, including Europe, China and Japan. In the five most recent issues we have looked into the expansion of the European Union and its impact on Arab affairs. We have also examined Russia's prospects as an international power. Our team has been examining terror and the spread of international and regional violence for well over a decade. The 1995 report dedicated a special section to international terror and violence. Since 2001, when it became clear that fanatical religious groups with an international agenda could cause global mayhem and disruption, terror has received intensive media coverage across the world. The clash of civilisations, dialogue among cultures, the future of Islamic and Arab societies, reform in the Arab and Muslim countries and the ability to contain religious fundamentalism have been debated at length in the last three reports. Our writers have discussed the nature and composition of Islamic radical groups, their political discourse, behaviour patterns and reaction to Westerners and non- Muslims. We often expressed the opinion that radical Islam needs to be addressed as a sociological phenomenon, with behavioural, intellectual and political aspects, and not just through security measures. Our team made a clear distinction between the Islamic revival noticeable in most Arab and Muslim countries and the type of religious fanaticism associated with violence. This distinction is essential in understanding radical Islam and its propensity for violence, a propensity not shared by the majority within Muslim societies. We have assiduously debunked the assumption that violence against innocent people can be justified on religious grounds. Globalisation has featured heavily. The term was first mentioned in the 1992 report, when our writers differentiated between globalisation as an ideological concept and as the inevitable outcome of closer interaction between markets and societies. In later reports we looked at the impact of globalisation on industrial and developing countries, analysed the anti-globalisation movement and offered advice on the humanisation of globalisation. Our writers have paid special attention to the emergence of civil society as a global movement transcending national boundaries. This phenomenon may have become more noticeable during the protests against the US war on Iraq in early 2003 but its roots are to be found in the pro- Palestinian demonstrations preceding the war. Our team has generally promoted the case for freedom, democracy and stability in the Arab world. We have urged the Arab League to modernise and called on Arab governments and people withstand foreign pressure. We have kept an eye on domestic developments in Arab societies while urging political freedoms and a stronger civil society. Our analysts have scrutinised the roots of inter-Arab disputes and suggested ways of resolving Arab differences. We have looked into Arab regional institutions and proposed ways of making them more effective. Nor has the military aspect been absent from our report. We have analysed Arab military capabilities and policies extensively. For the last 10 years we have offered an in-depth look into the activities and institutions of Arab civil society as well as monitoring foreign-based Arab media and regional satellite networks. Since 1985 we have offered detailed analyses of the Arab-Israeli conflict, providing insight into the negotiating process and pointing to weaknesses in the Arab and Palestinian performance. In doing so we have kept our readers informed of developments inside the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel. Egypt, as the largest Arab country and our home base, takes up much of our attention. We have reviewed the performance of Egyptian political institutions, civil society, party life, parliamentary elections and political movements, including the officially- banned Muslim Brotherhood. We have kept our readers informed of the country's economic performance, foreign policy and military capabilities. It maybe of interest today to note that our second report, published in 1987, contained extensive coverage of demands for reform in Egypt, with several writers arguing for greater freedom of expression and of organisation. The government, our analysts wrote, was resistant to the introduction of reforms. In subsequent reports our writers kept track of political developments, noting that the clash between the government and radical Muslim militants had held back the course of reform. Over the last three years our team has examined the impact of global changes on domestic reforms. We have run extensive analyses of recent political reforms in Egypt, reviewing the amendment of Article 76 of the constitution and offering insights into the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. * The writer is an expert at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies and chief editor of the annual Arab Strategic Report .
