A third in-depth report has been issued allegedly linking Hizbullah to Al-Hariri's assassination, but even if true, fundamental questions remain, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Another media report implicating Hizbullah operatives in the killing of Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005 further muddied the waters this week ahead of the expected indictment. A documentary aired by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) said it had obtained files from United Nations investigators and interviewed unnamed sources within the probe that detailed circumstantial evidence pointing towards the Shia military and political group. Juicy details abound in the story. But even if found to be accurate, the report, on which the tribunal has so far declined to comment, added little substantive information to two earlier landmark stories in Le Monde in 2006 and Der Spiegel three years later. A case cannot be built solely on circumstantial evidence, which is how telecommunications data is classified, mainly because such information is viewed as easily manipulated. Until the indictment, it will likely remain unknown what other proof the Special Tribunal for Lebanon holds. The CBC's report also pointed to lapses and incompetence by the tribunal itself, such as a failure to follow key leads. Those allegations, along with the implication that the tribunal is leaking explosive information at a tense time for Lebanon, could cast further suspicion on the controversial Hague-based court. There was little there to undermine Hizbullah's key arguments in its escalating campaign against the court. The group maintains that unmasking those who backed the "false witnesses", figures who gave testimony against Syria following the assassination but later retracted it, will yield crucial information about the killers. It also argues that telecommunications evidence is particularly unreliable given the exposure over the past two years of an extensive Israeli spy-ring, many of whose operatives were in key communications posts in the army, Internal Security Forces and cell-phone companies. The guerrilla group accuses Israel of masterminding the car bomb, which killed 22 other people and plunged Lebanon into a political crisis. The CBC report said it relied on interviews with sources inside the UN investigation as well as Investigative Commission documents including telecommunications data. The two most startling aspects were allegations that Colonel Wissam Al-Hassan, head of Al-Hariri's security at the time of the killing and a close ally of the family, came under suspicion from UN investigators because his alibi on the day of the explosion was weak. But the fears were not pursued and he remained at the centre of liaisons between the police and the commission. Al-Hassan is head of the Internal Security Forces Information Branch, an intelligence agency viewed as strongly pro-Hariri. Another is the allegation that Colonel Wissam Eid, a police official working on the case who was himself killed by a car bomb in 2008, had discovered complex concentric rings of mobile phone networks. They linked mobile phones used at the scene of the crime and in the vicinity of Al-Hariri leading to Hizbullah officials and landlines at a hospital run by the group in Beirut's southern suburbs. The report said the report was shelved for a year and when it was re-discovered, Eid was killed. There was some interesting detail, but many of the revelations had already appeared in media and Investigative Commission reports. Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, the son of the assassinated former premier, declined to comment on the CBC's allegations, except to say "leaked information does not serve the course of justice". He expressed confidence in Al-Hassan. Elias Muhanna, political analyst and author of the respected Qifa Nabki blog, wrote that the Al-Hassan allegation "makes everybody's life more difficult". Given Al-Hassan's close ties to Saad as well as his father, no one in his 14 March alliance will be happy with the claims, and they reportedly made the Americans very uncomfortable. "It also causes problems for Hizbullah and its allies. How can the opposition embrace the revelation about Al-Hassan's alleged culpability while disavowing the rest of the report?" The same goes, perhaps, for its criticism of the workings of the investigation. Muhanna said Al-Hassan was also Rafik Al-Hariri's main channel to former Syrian head of intelligence Rustom Ghazali, "which puts Damascus back under the spotlight. My guess is that what we're likely to see is a lot of tiptoeing by Lebanese politicians with respect to this new story," he wrote. The indictment is widely expected early next year, although twists and turns cannot be ruled out. There are no suspects in detention and everyone has kept mum on the content of the indictment. "This is the latest of a series of leaks here and there -- this was one of the more methodical, but not necessarily the most credible," said Beirut- based political analyst Osama Safa. "I think we're going to see a lot more such leaks, not necessarily coming from the tribunal, but perhaps intelligence agency leaks or journalists doing their own investigations." As Lebanon emerged from the Eid Al-Adha break, traditionally a time of truce among its fractious leaders, diplomatic efforts to limit negative repercussions of the indictment intensified. Many fear Sunni-Shia tensions will soar if members of the group are charged with killing the Sunni leader. "We're seeing a flurry of diplomacy," Safa said. "We see and hear that there are Syrian-Saudi efforts; the Qataris were here yesterday, the Turks are coming this week. But it's not clear what will come out of it all." Hot on the heels of visits by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr Al-Thani and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Al-Hariri is expected to visit Hizbullah's backer Iran this week. Many believe some sort of settlement is in the offing, although it is unclear how effective it can be in the long-term given international, and especially US, support for the tribunal. Hizbullah wants Al-Hariri and his allies to unite against the court they have long championed by announcing their rejection of any indictment against the group's members. It also wants Lebanon to drop its official support for the court by withdrawing its two judges, funding and political backing. Safa expected a lull sustained by rounds of diplomacy. "I don't think much will happen soon," he said. "We're in a wait-and-see phase."
