Experts are taking the economic programmes of presidential candidates with a grain of salt. Niveen Wahish reports With only a week left before elections, candidates are running out of time to persuade citizens to give them their votes in exchange for promises of a brighter future. It is not only the average citizen whom they need to convince however, but the experts as well. The latter remain sceptical about what these programmes have to offer. The programme presented by the National Democratic Party (NDP) candidate has attracted the most attention. Gamal Abdel-Gawad, expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, believes the NDP strategy is the most prominent. "There is a clear liberal philosophy underlying the NDP programme," he said, adding that "theirs' is a programme that has been applied for a year since Ahmed Nazif's cabinet came to office, and although the average citizen may have not yet felt the effects, the positive results are obvious, at least in the general indicators." He gave the example of increased foreign currency reserves and the improved flow of foreign direct investments. He believes that the NDP's programme is relatively comprehensive compared to other programmes. "It is the only programme that offers an estimation of the cost and how to procure these funds." He attributed this to the fact that the party has already been in power and has had plenty of time to prepare while other candidates have not had the same preparation time. He believes the targets set by the NDP are achievable if it continues applying the policies it has started. Abdel-Gawad also drew attention to the unemployment support scheme suggested by the Ghad Party. "Providing a social safety net is important," he said, but he does not think it is easily applicable, particularly in a country where the informal sector represents a good portion of the economy. Karima Korayem, professor of economics at Al-Azhar University, also commented on the NDP programme. By virtue of the fact that the NDP is the most experienced of the parties and is actually in power, its programme has provided detailed targets. She noted that "it has the infrastructure and the mechanisms." However, she questioned why, despite being so familiar with the problems, they have been unable to implement solutions to date. She pointed out that "these are not new problems." She did not deny that part of what the NDP is promising could be achieved, but only with a change in its approach. Korayem believes that the 4.5 million jobs, promised by the NDP, fall in the realm of wishful thinking. And some of the solutions they propose are not good enough. "The notion that small and medium enterprises are the engine for job creation is wholly correct," she stated, pointing out that the experience of the Social Fund for Development(SDF) has not proven successful. Many of the individuals who took out loans defaulted on them or quit their projects. "It is not just an issue of financing, but these SMEs must be provided with technical support and followup." In her opinion, what must drive the economy are local and foreign investments. However, she believes the NDP has failed to facilitate such investment in the past. "Local investors were encouraged by receiving loans that were unregulated. The result was that many of the businessmen ran away with the money. As for foreign investments, those that have been made so far have been substitutes to the public sector, which does not compare in terms of production or job opportunities, to an influx of new investments." "The idea of giving plots of land to individuals to cultivate, is also not practical," she said. "Planting the land is costly and they need a lot of guidance and technical assistance to do it." In the meantime, the programmes of the other parties, due to their lack of experience, do not offer much beyond general intentions. However, she said, they could be given the benefit of the doubt. Ideas propagated by the Wafd Party regarding the revamping of the subsidy system and converting it into direct financial assistance is important, she said, but cannot be done before a social map is drawn of Egypt's population. The idea of unemployment assistance, proposed by the Ghad Party, is also important in a free market. However, she warned that it would have negative repercussions on the already burgeoning budget. "That would require a reshuffling of government spending." In the meantime, she described the call by some for a return to the public sector as "not plausible". "Our experience with the public sector has proven unsuccessful." Nonetheless, she believes that the government should not withdraw altogether from economic activity. "It must continue to operate in certain activities such as heavy industries or in capital intensive industries where the private sector may not be able to take part," she noted. Another expert who preferred to remain anonymous also acknowledged the NDP programme as the most prominent because it is the most detailed. However, he believes their propaganda is too optimistic and promises that the government will do everything. "That should not be the case; it should only provide a suitable environment for investors." And he stressed that before giving out such numbers, the NDP should have taken into account that the performance of the economy is affected by external factors which may affect Egyptian exports and the value of the pound, thus having a domino effect on the whole economy. Nevertheless, he does not believe that the other parties offer any better options. He described suggestions by some parties to cut on military spending and direct the funds to other areas as "difficult." He pointed out that, "in general, military spending worldwide is increasing and not being cut down." As for unemployment support, he said that it will prove very costly considering that government figures put the unemployment rate at 10 per cent. "That money is better spent on education and rehabilitation of the workforce," he said.
