Following his election victory President Mubarak now faces the task of delivering on his campaign pledges, reports Gamal Essam El-Din Despite the low turnout, allegations of irregularities and the poor monitoring of Egypt's first multi- candidate presidential elections on 7 September reinforced President Hosni Mubarak's grip on power. Having secured 88.6 per cent of the popular vote, Mubarak will be sworn in on 27 September before a special session of the People's Assembly, beginning a fifth six-year term. The oath will be followed by a speech in which Mubarak is expected to outline his agenda for the next six years. Though it will be carefully watched, Mubarak is unlikely to provide the details that were conspicuously missing during his campaign speeches. Pledges will be repeated, though without any timetable or strategy for their implementation. According to Mohamed El-Sayed Said, a political analyst at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, "Mubarak knows that the next six-year term will be his last in power." While Said hopes "that Mubarak's 27 September speech will at last reflect a genuine belief in democracy by focussing on a timeline for political reforms and a clear and serious plan for expanding the freedoms", his optimism is not widely shared. Hussein Abdel-Razeq, secretary-general of the leftist Tagammu Party, expects the speech to be circumspect as far as reform is concerned. "In two recent interviews President Mubarak repeated that he is opposed to the drafting of a new constitution and unwilling to give up the chairmanship of the National Democratic Party (NDP). All the signs are that the regime will continue to seek to contain external pressures, dictating the pace of political change while not really believing in it." Political observers close to the NDP, however, say that policy details will be unveiled at the NDP's third annual conference, which will open on 29 September. The NDP's powerful Policies Committee, headed by President Mubarak's son Gamal, will then be in charge of outlining the ways in which Mubarak's campaign pledges are to be implemented. "The committee," says NDP Shura Council spokesman Mohamed Ragab, "will take charge of implementing President Mubarak's campaign promises, including replacing emergency laws with Western-style anti-terrorism legislation, curtailing the powers of the president, strengthening the powers of parliament and dissolving the office of the Socialist prosecutor- general." The committee will also be in charge of formulating policies capable of realising Mubarak's ambitious economic agenda which includes the creation of 4.5 million jobs, and for the first time will assume responsibility for the NDP's parliamentary campaign ahead of November's elections. This latter move is viewed by many as a further erosion of the influence of the party's old guard -- NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif, Assistant Secretary-General Kamal El-Shazli and parliamentary speaker Fathi Sorour -- who were effectively sidelined during the presidential campaign. Increasingly, says one NDP official who asked for his name to be withheld, "they are seen as a liability rather than an asset." The leading role being taken by the Policies Committee has led to renewed speculation that Gamal Mubarak is being groomed to succeed his father. Ayman Nour, who came second in the presidential elections, quipped that his next battle would be against Gamal Mubarak, while Noaman Gomaa, leader of the Wafd, said he expects Gamal Mubarak to sweep to power in 2011, or even earlier, unless Article 76 of the constitution is re-amended. Said agrees that the question of succession is likely to dominate the coming period. "Unless Mubarak moves quickly to change the political landscape by amending the constitution and re-drafting Article 76, allowing the opposition more room and accommodating moderate Islamists within the political structure, the likelihood of Gamal Mubarak inheriting power will grow." Said believes the president could make a start by scrapping individual candidacy in parliamentary elections in favour of a collective slate system. "This," he believes, "will open the door to a more representative parliament". Ragab, in contrast, believes the current system is perfectly capable of creating a stronger parliament as long as the Interior Ministry and security forces are excluded from playing any role in elections. He predicts that November's parliamentary elections, which will be supervised by a 10-member commission headed by the justice minister and including a representative of the Interior Ministry, will see a consolidation of the influence of businessmen within the NDP as they cash in on their support for Mubarak's campaign. Many businessmen, says Ragab, are working hard to find their way into the next parliament. The presidential elections highlighted the weakness and fragmentation of the three major opposition parties, the Tagammu, Nasserist and Wafd. It is now obvious, says Said, that the opposition needs to coordinate much more closely. "They also have to work with Nour's Ghad and the Muslim Brotherhood in order to reach an alliance capable of dismantling the NDP's monopoly over political life." While the Ghad was undoubtedly among the winners of the presidential elections, its chairman, Nour, faces many challenges, the first being his trial, due to open on 25 September. Following the swearing-in ceremony on 27 September the fourteen-month-old cabinet of Ahmed Nazif and the Council of Provincial Councils will submit their resignations to Mubarak. Ragab believes Nazif will remain in office, though there will be a cabinet reshuffle. This is unlikely, however, to involve the current cabinet's economic team of Youssef Boutros-Ghali, Mahmoud Mohieddin and Rachid Mohamed Rachid, all of whom are close to Gamal Mubarak. But that, says Abdel-Razeq, will constitute a stumbling block in implementing the changes necessary to create the promised 4.5 million jobs, build half a million housing units and construct 1,000 factories. "Keeping Nazif's cabinet, widely seen as an extension of the Policies Committee and of big business, will send the wrong message to the poor and unemployed." "The new government should include more political reformers," argues Said, even if this means inviting leading opposition figures to join the cabinet. "Without a strong parliament, an accountable government, an independent judiciary and serious and bold political reforms Egypt will remain trapped in a vicious circle, with disastrous consequences for all."
