Is the unilateral agreement signed last week by four Nile Basin countries a watershed in relations between upstream and downstream states, asks Mohamed El-Sayed Disagreements between Nile Basin countries took a new turn last week when four of the seven upstream states signed a framework agreement on Friday at Entebbe's Lake Victoria Hotel in Uganda. The signing of the agreement followed the failure of recent negotiations held in Egypt to reach a final agreement on the Legal and Institutional Frameworks governing the distribution of Nile water among the 10 member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative. The new agreement was signed by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Three upstream countries -- Kenya, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo -- did not sign, though Kenya says it supports the agreement which has been open for signing since 14 May. According to officials from the four riparian countries that signed the agreement, the new accord "will provide a legal framework for the creation of the Nile Basin Commission, which is expected to replace the Nile Basin Initiative when it expires in 2012". "For the last 10 years we have been negotiating how to use water resource together amicably," said Ethiopia's minister of water resources, Asfaw Dinamo. The agreement, which tears up colonial era treaties dating from 1929 and 1959, and sets up a permanent commission to oversee the use of the river waters, has ruffled the feathers of Egypt and Sudan. Cairo worries it will undermine Egypt's right to veto upstream projects. "The unilateral signing of any agreement by upstream countries is not binding on Egypt. It has been signed outside the framework of the Nile Basin Initiative and lacks international legitimacy," says Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Nasreddin Allam. "If upstream countries insist on unilaterally signing this agreement, Egypt will take all legal and diplomatic measures to protect its Nile water rights." The Foreign Ministry has stressed that "Egypt will not sign any agreement that might affect Egypt's share of Nile water or its historical rights." The statement added that "the signing of any agreement by Egypt will depend on acknowledging Egypt's current share of water." Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif downplayed the agreement. "Egypt is not in danger because of the framework agreement signed by some Nile Basin countries," he said on Monday. He pointed out that: "Egypt's rights to Nile water are protected, legally and practically, and we will defend these rights." "There is appreciation of Egypt's position in the wider international community. We are not in a weak position," Nazif added. He stressed that, "Egypt is keen to develop the Nile Basin through cooperation" and "will work on putting into effect the presidential initiative aimed at launching a commission bringing together Nile Basin countries". Observers expect Egypt to call for a presidential meeting between the heads of Nile Basin states to settle the dispute. While Egyptian officials tried to downplay the significance of the agreement, they remain keen to keep the door to negotiations open. Minister of State for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Moufid Shehab said that the coming few weeks would witness intensive diplomatic activity to settle the issue. "Egypt is keen to conduct [further] dialogue with upstream countries in order to reach a formula that achieves all member countries' interests," he said. Allam revealed that, "Egypt is considering calling for an exceptional meeting of the members of the Nile Basin Ministerial Council in Alexandria to discuss re- launching negotiations over the points of disagreement in the framework agreement". Egypt, he said, has called on upstream countries to review the unilateral positions taken last week and return to the negotiating table. "We want to start serious negotiations that can reach solutions satisfactory to all parties, focussing on making the best use of Nile waters and minimising the amount of water that is wasted." Egypt also called on upstream states to review the Egyptian-Sudanese presidential initiative that seeks to establish a higher commission charged with attracting capital, donations and grants to implement development projects in all Nile Basin countries. Cairo insists it will stick to diplomatic measures in settling the dispute. It is attempting to pressure upstream countries by entering into negotiations with donor states and international agencies in an attempt to persuade them to withhold funds for projects on the Rive Nile that might affect the downstream countries' share of water. But what if the diplomatic and political efforts come to nothing? "The proposed higher commission could result in a serious commitment on the part of all the concerned countries," says Hassan Abu Taleb, an expert at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. "This commission could beget a mechanism for settling disputes and enhancing a win-win approach among riparian countries," he says. "Or the issue could be taken to international arbitration." The latter course, say international law experts, will be far from easy. "There must be prior agreement among the countries in dispute to take the issue to international arbitration, which is not the case here," says Ahmed Rifaat, professor of international law and former Egyptian ambassador to UNESCO. "Should upstream Nile Basin countries refuse to go to international arbitration, Egypt and Sudan can resort to international organisations like the UN and the Security Council, on the grounds that this dispute over Nile water could undermine regional and international security." Rifaat would prefer an agreement to be reached through diplomatic means and presidential meetings. "It is not wise to resort to arbitration. Any ruling will be binding, even if it is not in Egypt's interest." Mahmoud Abu Zeid, former minister of irrigation and water resources and chairman of the Arab Water Council, concurs. "Since the launch of negotiations between Nile Basin countries Egypt has been most concerned with reaching an agreement satisfactory for all basin countries," Abu Zeid said. "This is not because Egypt's position is weak. Neither is it because of any absence of legal rights or technical expertise. Egypt has always been the driving force behind the Nile Basin Initiative." Abu Zeid, who was a key player in the 10-year negotiations conducted by the Nile Basin countries, believes Egypt is in a strong position. "Nile water agreements are as sacred as border agreements. They are fully ratified by the Organisation of African Unity," he says. The Nile water issue, he argues, has been "politicised by [upstream] Nile Basin countries to achieve political gains, which directly affected the course and logic of negotiations and led some countries to take positions without providing convincing arguments". (see pp.4,5&11)
