Comments by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif have re-ignited debate over who will be Egypt's next president, reports Gamal Essam El-Din In a four-hour meeting with the editors of independent and opposition newspapers on 20 May, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, answering a question about next year's presidential election, said he hoped the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) would be fielding President Hosni Mubarak as its candidate. "President Mubarak has become a symbol of stability and Egypt needs stability... our political system has not produced an alternative leader capable of ensuring this," argued Nazif. The prime minister also expressed hopes that the presidential election of 2011 would be more competitive than was the case in 2005. "I hope that this election will confirm the fact that Egypt is a multi-party system," said Nazif, noting, however, that "the ruling NDP continues to be dominant on the political scene although constitutional reforms passed in 2007 were designed to reinforce the performance of political parties and allow them to be more competitive." "Political parties are now allowed to field candidates in presidential elections, but the problem is that Egypt has always had a dominant party." Asked about Mohamed El-Baradei, the former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nazif replied that, "he is a respectable man and nothing bars him from standing in 2011's presidential election. The problem about El-Baradei, though, is that he wants to change the rules of the game." Nazif's remarks refuelled speculation over whether 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak will stand in next year's presidential election, and if not who might eventually replace him after 30 years in office. Some political observers believe Nazif's remarks may have caused embarrassment to Gamal Mubarak, the 47-year-old son of President Mubarak whom many believe is being groomed to inherit power in a father/son succession scenario. By suggesting that President Mubarak should be the NDP's candidate in the 2011 presidential election, and stating there is no alternative capable of maintaining the necessary stability, Nazif appeared to reflect the view of many NDP old guard politicians whose political future could be undermined should Gamal take office. Al-Ahram analyst Amr Elshobaki believes such an interpretation is wrong. "Nazif's remarks were misunderstood," he says. "Don't forget, the credit for appointing Nazif as prime minister in the summer of 2004 goes largely to Gamal Mubarak and I cannot believe that Nazif would want to embarrass him. Nazif probably meant that Mubarak is the most capable of achieving stability and that opposition parties have failed to put forth a non-NDP alternative to replace him." Safwat El-Sherif, NDP secretary-general and the chairman of the consultative upper house, the Shura Council, told the Dubai-based satellite television channel Al-Arabiya on Tuesday that he disagreed with Nazif's remarks. "Egypt's democracy has produced many alternatives," said El-Sherif. "There are alternatives who can stand in election though Mubarak, with his great stature, is a legend who will never be replicated." During a press conference with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on 19 May, President Mubarak answered a question from a German journalist about whether he is considering a presidential bid. "Who knows? Who knows? Only God knows who will be the next president," Mubarak is reported to have responded. According to Al-Ahram, Mubarak pointed to the sky and said, "whoever God prefers, I prefer, though it's a nice question anyway". Berlusconi himself said: "I have found President Mubarak to be dynamic, energetic, in good health and, as always, with a strong sense of humour." In Berlusconi's words: "We are all happy that one of the stalwarts of the international scene has recovered his health." Mubarak's meeting with Berlusconi in Rome was part of his first foreign tour after recovering from a gall bladder surgery in Germany during March. Mubarak also visited Greece. Alieddin Hilal, the NDP official in charge of the party's media secretariat, insists "President Mubarak is a reserved man, not in the habit of unveiling his plans too soon." In an interview with the London-based BBC channel on Monday, Hilal said "the NDP includes many figures that could stand in presidential elections but if President Mubarak decided to, the other NDP alternatives would abstain in appreciation of the historical role he has played, and for the sake of Egypt." Hilal denied that Gamal Mubarak would be the party's automatic choice in the 2011 presidential election should President Mubarak step down. According to Hilal, President Mubarak has refrained from appointing a vice-president since he came to office in 1981 "because to do so is undemocratic and unjust to the Egyptian people". "I think President Mubarak did not want a repeat of what happened with presidents Nasser and Sadat. He does not support a scenario in which the vice-president automatically takes over should the office of the president becomes vacant," said Hilal. El-Sherif and Hilal both criticised ex-IAEA's chief El-Baradei, insisting that his criticisms of the regime are unfounded. "If El-Baradei and others, like the Chief of Arab League Amr Moussa, are serious about standing in the presidential elections, why don't they join one of the existing parties?" asked Hilal. El-Baradei returned to Cairo on Monday night after six weeks away, during which he visited the US, Germany and Cameroon. He told the news channel France 24 on Sunday that he remained adamant that he would consider a presidential bid only if the constitution is amended to create greater transparency and "allow independent figures to run freely". "My immediate priority," he stated, "is to ensure we move from an authoritarian system of government to a democratic one". El-Baradei's prolonged absence from the Egyptian local political scene is reported to have caused rifts among his supporters at the National Association for Change (NAC). Elshobaki believes that El-Baradei's democratic appeals have lost momentum because of his absence. "You cannot speak convincingly about democratic reform and change in Egypt if you spend most of your time touring America and Europe, making contact with the people through the Internet," said Elshobaki.
