The length of the new cabinet's honeymoon with the public will depend on the speed with which it delivers political and socio-economic reform Following intense speculation over the composition of the new cabinet, public attention has now shifted to whether or not the new government will be able to make good on its promises and deliver both jobs and improved standards of living. Who is in and who is out no longer dominates discussions in the street: concern now is focussed on whether the new cabinet can actually create new job opportunities, improve welfare provision, particularly in the areas of health and education, and pursue a programme of political reform. "I don't know what to think. The government may have gotten rid of some of the faces that had sickened the public for too long but I'm not convinced that the new intake of businessmen to the cabinet really understand the problems facing ordinary Egyptians. They have no idea about what we go through," said Mohamed Hussein, a conductor on the Heliopolis metro-line. Hussein's concern about businessmen joining the government is shared by many, a fact reflected in one of the first official statements concerning the new cabinet, when Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awad justified the inclusion of so many members of the business community as an attempt to make use of their entrepreneurial skills. "We can understand that the government may want to use the entrepreneurial expertise of successful businessmen in, by definition, business-oriented sectors like tourism. What is difficult to accept is businessmen heading sectors most related to public services, including health and public transport," said one prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood. According to Essam El-Erian, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the composition of the new cabinet suggests that the government is determined to fast-track privatisation, and the results could include higher prices for public transport and water. It is a concern that is not restricted to the Islamist trend or low-income groups. "It is not in our interest to leave the problems of the poor unattended. We need to encourage the government to listen carefully to their problems if we are to continue to enjoy social stability," said one leading businessman who requested anonymity. The high proportion of businessmen in the cabinet may not, he continued, help the government to significantly improve its performance though it could well increase public antagonism to the business community in general. Prominent Wafdist Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour believes that while the new intake of ministers with a business background "is likely to prove successful" in running their ministries, providing innovative solutions to the problems they will encounter, "there is concern that with very few exceptions the cabinet lacks members with a solid political background." "It is very well that they have experience and are seen as honest but we are talking about a government that will have to deal with enacting the political reforms promised by President Hosni Mubarak during the presidential elections," said Abdel-Nour, who worries that a team of technocrats will lack the experience necessary to steer the country during a crucial political juncture. "I find it a little difficult to believe that most members of the new government will be able to convince the public that they can advance either of the top two concerns -- political reform and social reform," said Abdel-Nour. That the cabinet's economic portfolios remained in the same hands indicates that the government will continue to pursue the same policies of Ahmed Nazif's first term -- policies that have yet to win the confidence of the public. Rachid Mohamed Rachid, Mahmoud Mohieddin and Youssef Boutros-Ghali will continue to run the ministries of trade, investment and finance respectively, and it is uncertain whether their avowed goals of engineering growth, at least in the medium term, will involve growing hardships for those on low incomes in the shorter term. Under the direct supervision of Nazif, and with the support of the influential Policies Committee of the ruling National Democratic Party, chaired by Gamal Mubarak, the three ministries will shoulder the task of meeting President Mubarak's electoral promise to create 4.5 million new jobs in the next six years while improving overall standards of living. Their strategy is to engineer a gradual shift from resource-based to medium- and high-tech industry as they seek to establish Egypt as a pioneer exporter in the Middle East and North Africa of medium-tech based products. Areas in which Egypt currently enjoys a competitive advantage include textiles and clothing, engineering, food products and furniture. Medium-tech areas in which Egypt could carve a niche for itself include labour intensive consumer electronics, automotive components and biotechnology. The new cabinet is also expected to focus on areas where success has so far proved elusive, including mortgage and insurance provision, and the management of public assets. The Ministry of Finance will face a number of difficult decisions as it attempts to cut public expenditure by streamlining both direct and indirect subsidies. Reducing the costs of subsidies, which in 2005-2006 have been budgeted at LE35.4 billion, is likely to prove a painful task, one which the government put off from last year on the grounds that the necessary cuts might have caused social unrest in an election year. The priority given to economic policy was underlined in President Mubarak's keynote address to the People's Assembly last month. Mubarak said he had directed the government to refer several key areas of legislation to parliament with the aim of liberalising the economy and opening it up to foreign investment. "Our worst fear," said El-Erian, "is that this government will continue to pursue the economic policies of the past 25 years, which have shown few positive results, and continue to neglect urgent calls for political and social reform." According to El-Erian, Abdel-Nour and others if this does happen then the honeymoon period the cabinet enjoys with the public following the elimination of many of its most unpopular members could be short indeed. During a meeting with newspaper editors this week, Prime Minister Nazif appealed for the benefit of the doubt and insisted the new cabinet be judged on its ability to achieve positive political and socio-economic results. And during a radio address following the shuffle of governors earlier in the week, President Mubarak promised that he will be keeping a close eye on the performance of the government and ensure that policies will not compromise the interests of the vast majority of the public. (see p.2) Written by Dina Ezzat, Niveen Wahish and Gamal Essam El-Din
