As Palestinians go to the polls Hamas projects propriety and Fatah disarray, writes Graham Usher in Nablus As Palestinians go to the polls Hamas projects propriety and Fatah disarray, writes Graham Usher in Nablus A week before the Palestinian Authority (PA) elections the West Bank city of Nablus is reaching for a new era while trapped in the old. Its old and new cities are swamped with all the paraphernalia of the campaign, with every candidate promising change. But deserted streets and shuttered shops tell another story: that behind the peeling hype for the 25 January poll there is another, foreign government that actually wields sovereignty over its 180,000 inhabitants. This doesn't change. It deepens. Since 2 January, Israel has banned Palestinians in Nablus from travelling to Ramallah and other Palestinian cities southwards. Restrictions have also been imposed on Palestinians moving between the three main northern West Bank towns of Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarm. The army says this is to wrinkle out Islamic Jihad cells that have killed 24 Israelis in the last year. Palestinians say it is the Gaza model of separation applied to the West Bank. Like Gaza, they are powerless to stop it. "The army still enters Nablus every other night," says a taxi driver. "The only difference now is there no longer any resistance to it". The result is a suffocating sense of siege which translates, politically, as introversion. For these elections Palestinians are focusing on things that can be changed, like governance, not things that cannot, like the occupation or even poverty. But most intend to vote, born of recent experiences that change, at least among themselves, is possible. The first happened in November, when the Palestinian police moved finally to wrest control of the city from armed and unaccountable militias. To everyone's amazement force succeeded, with immediate drops in violence and crime. "The (Fatah-led) PA asserted control and the (Fatah- affiliated) Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades (AMB) disappeared," says Abowd Al-Ateer, a student. The second happened in December, when a Hamas-led coalition won Nablus' municipal elections. The two events were related, says Ghassan Shakaa, former mayor of Nablus and heading its Fatah list for parliament. "The militias recognised the police's power and the AMB realised that their brigandage had hurt Fatah politically. Hamas's victory disempowered them without a shot being fired". This is why Adli Ayyash -- Nablus' new, urbane and Hamas-backed mayor -- does not expect political violence between Fatah and Hamas in Nablus on polling day, "unlike perhaps in Gaza". The emphasis rather will be on getting things right. "During the municipal elections we all wore green. Now we've taken the green off," he says. "Everyone understands that we have to put our house in order. We know we have to work with the Israelis, the donors and the PA to deliver services to Nablus, provide jobs and end chaos. Had Hamas won the municipal elections alone, it would have been more complex. But Hamas didn't win alone -- it was the alliance between Hamas and Nablus' business community that won. Hamas put me first on their list because they know I would win more seats". The same pragmatism can be seen and heard on the stump. At a Hamas campaign meeting near Nablus' Al-Najah University, there are no armed guards -- only a mass of bearded men in suits and ties. They are not sloganeering in a mosque; they are debating in a public hall. Nor is the audience asking questions about Jerusalem, Jihad or the right of return. The talk instead is of morality, sobriety and the degeneration of public life after 10 years of PA rule. "Our universities have become dens of iniquity. Will you stop this and segregate the sexes?" asks one punter, to a round of applause. "Yes, there could well be legislation to separate boys from girls in the universities," answers Sheikh Hamad Bitawi, the cleric heading Hamas's district list for Nablus. Bitawi adheres to Hamas's older Ikhwan roots rather than to the younger legions of its military wing, Izzadin Al-Qassem. For him the ultimate prize of the elections appears less "preserving the resistance" than controlling the Education Ministry. In discussion his answers are slick like a politician's and vague as they are moderate. How can Hamas negotiate with a state it doesn't recognise? "We have no choice but to talk to the Israelis about many things so, yes, if we are ministers, we will have relations with them". Will you continue the armed struggle even in government? "There are many forms of resistance -- not only bang, bang". Will you introduce Sharia? "Israel teaches Zionism, America, capitalism and Russia used to teach communism. Why should we not teach Islam?" All of which means "Hamas is accepting the rules of the game," says Shakaa. "It took Fatah 20 years to recognise reality. It will take Hamas six months. In one year Hamas will recognise Israel on the bases of a two-state solution," he predicts. He dismisses with a wave of the hand threats that aid will be withheld should Hamas command a majority. "If Hamas ends the violence, Israel, the US and the European Union will work with them. From what I hear, they are already doing so". But Shakaa doesn't think Hamas will win or even wants a majority. "They want to be part of government with a fair share of the ministries, police chiefs and civil servants. And this is what Abu Mazen wants -- one government, the recognition of one authority, so that we can tackle the militias once and for all". As for Hamas's legislative agenda ... "Look," says Shakaa, peering over his glasses. "If the price of the militias is the Sharia, not only would I welcome this -- I would pray for it and at a Hamas mosque". But there are others in his movement who are nowhere near as sanguine. They agree Hamas is accepting the rules of the parliamentary game. But they doubt Fatah will or can play by them. Taysir Nasrallah is a Fatah activist from Nablus's Balata refugee camp. He says Fatah has never been in worst shape to concede power sharing or accommodate Hamas. "We didn't have primaries in Fatah -- we had complete chaos. There is a crisis of credibility between Fatah's base and its leadership," with a haemorrhaging of its support. "Some won't vote, some will vote for independent parties and some, out of revenge, will vote for Hamas". The result is that parliamentary elections will go the same way as the municipal elections in Nablus. And that, he says, "is Fatah's worst nightmare". This is why, less than a week before polling day, he is doubtful the elections will happen and fearful if they do. "We all know who is behind the violence in Gaza. Fatah is behind it, or at least those elements that Abu Mazen wants to distance from power. Do you really think they are going to surrender just because Abu Mazen heads a democratically elected government? No way -- once the campaign starts in earnest, the chaos you see in Gaza will extend to the West Bank".
