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Axis of problems
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 26 - 01 - 2006

Rasha Saad examines the Iran-Syria-Hizbullah connection
As international pressure intensifies on the Iran-Syria- Hizbullah alliance, the interview that the London- based Al-Hayat newspaper conducted with Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah could not have come at a more opportune time. In the two episodes published this week, Nasrallah consistently warned against attempts to stir up trouble between Sunnis and Shias and warned of attempts to trigger a sectarian struggle. He criticised the talks concerning the so- called Shia crescent and said it is only present in the imagination of those who speak of it.
The interview was the focus of many comments. Renowned columnist Jihad Al-Khazen wrote in Al-Hayat that he supports Nasrallah's every word. He especially backed Nasrallah's warning of the attempt of the US and France to politicise the international investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri.
Al-Khazen cited the statement of the deputy spokesman at the State Department Adam Ereli to the US--funded Al-Hurra satellite TV following the visit of US Vice-President Dick Cheney to Egypt and Saudi Arabia last week where he (Ereli) "conveyed to the officials in the two countries the seriousness of the US and the international community to proceed with holding those responsible for Al-Hariri's assassination accountable, starting with President [Bashar] Al-Assad until the bottom of the ladder."
Al-Khazen urges the reader to replace the phrase "international community" with "Israel" and then proceed. He adds, "when Cheney condemns Syria and its president before the investigation is completed, it means that the US does not want to punish the killers of Rafik Al-Hariri but rather wants to punish Syria."
According to Al-Khazen the target is the Syrian- Iranian alliance, the alliance of Syria and Iran with Hizbullah, and Syria's persistence as a country that opposes Israel. There is also, according to Al-Khazen, the US failure in Iraq, which the Bush administration is trying to make Syria look like it is at least partly responsible with respect to the borders and infiltration therein.
However, Al-Khazen fears that any strike inflicted on Iran, whether by the US or Israel, will lead to a confrontation between Hizbullah and Israel, which will drag all of Lebanon with it.
"This scenario is at the heart of the current Lebanese crisis. Is Hizbullah present with its arms to liberate the Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba mountains or to defend Lebanon?" Al-Khazen asked.
Al-Khazen believes that Hizbullah tried to foresee a situation where Israel withdraws from the Shebaa Farms without deciding upon whether they are Lebanese or Syrian territory, and then calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah to deny any reason for it to possess weapons.
In Al-Hayat Walid Choukair commented on Nasrallah's interview, quoting him as saying that he misses Al-Hariri.
Choukair wrote that Nasrallah might have sought to imply in his interview that many components would have been different in the current Lebanese crisis had Al-Hariri been present. Choukair agrees. If Al-Hariri was still alive, Choukair argues, the Lebanese government would not have discussed Lebanon's demand to the Security Council to consider establishing an international court to try the accused in the assassination of Al-Hariri and expand the mission of the international probe commission into the crime to include other crimes.
Choukair also wrote, "the emotional status of Nasrallah, as he misses Al-Hariri, is similar to that of many Lebanese leaders who wish that the man was alive to avoid decisions and positions imposed by his assassination with all that implies." However, Choukair contends, "Nasrallah's situation, from this perspective, places him in a position as embarrassing as that of other Lebanese leaders whether because they are targeted or because they are waging a bitter struggle where local, regional and international factors are intertwined."
According to Choukair, without the assassination of Al-Hariri, Nasrallah would not have been forced to be in the position of defending Syria, while an authority like the international probe commission confirms that it "suspects the implication of senior Syrian security officials in the crime".
He added that if Al-Hariri was alive, Damascus would not have been obliged to confront the pressure targeting it in the international investigation via the cards it holds in the Lebanese scene, leading to further international interference. "Nasrallah would not have been forced to stand still listening to accusations approving the Syrian and Iranian tutelage."
Choukair concludes, "missing Al-Hariri brings back memories that the assassination is the central event from which the other events swell."
The Jordanian Al-Rai urged the Lebanese to have a sincere inter-dialogue as the only way out of the dark tunnel. In its editorial Al-Rai wrote, "the consequences that followed the assassination of Al-Hariri and which unfolded throughout last year are enough to persuade the Lebanese that they have no other way out of this crisis except through the culture of dialogue."


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