The escalation of the Iranian nuclear crisis reaches a boiling point, writes Mustafa El-Labbad Members of the Iranian delegation to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had a sleepless night in Vienna ahead of today's meeting of IAEA Board of Governors. The board is going to consider referring Iran's nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council, a move that may pave the way for international sanctions. For months, Iran has been coming under tremendous international pressure to stop its uranium enriching activities. Leaks, undoubtedly intentional, speak of a possible Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Japan, Canada, and Australia have joined the international chorus asking Iran to abandon its nuclear research. The 35-member Board of Governors is the IAEA's highest authority. It meets regularly five times a year, but today's meeting, called by the European troika (France, Germany and the UK) would be an extraordinary one. The board's decisions are made by simple majority. In other words, 18 votes would be enough to pass a decision referring Iran's dossier to the UN Security Council. So far, this seems to be the most likely outcome. Arab countries control over 15 per cent of the board's vote, as Egypt, Syria, Libya, Algeria and Yemen are all members. With the exception of Syria, which is certain to stand by Iran, it is not exactly clear which way Arab countries would vote. Latin American countries, led by Cuba and Venezuela, are expected to either take Iran's side or abstain. Europe, with the possible exception of Russia, is united against Iran. China, which needs Iran's oil, is likely to vote on Tehran's side. The Iranians hope Beijing may convince some Asian countries to do the same. South Africa has traditionally been sympathetic to Tehran, mainly because of the latter's support to the anti-apartheid movement prior to independence. The Iranian crisis is all about the dual use of enriched uranium. If uranium is enriched to a degree of five per cent, it is mostly fit for generating energy. But if the enrichment is taken to a degree of 80 or 90 per cent, the substance could be used to make atomic bombs. The same installations performing the low grade enrichment can usually be used to make the high grade variety -- hence the international worry. The West wants Iran to prove beyond reasonable doubt that it has no intention to make atomic weapons. If the IAEA refers Iran's dossier to the UN Security Council, this would be tantamount to an indictment. And the UN Security Council would look justified if it decides to impose sanctions. Few countries have so far acquired the technology to produce bomb-grade nuclear fuel: the United States, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, Japan, Israel, North Korea, Brazil, and South Africa -- and most have nuclear weapons. The current crisis broke out in 2002, when Mujahideen-i-Khalq, the leftist Iranian armed opposition group, reported that Iran has a nuclear facility in Natanz. The fact that Iran had failed to report the existence of that facility raised considerable international concerns. Western countries do not dispute Iran's right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. This is a right that every country enjoys, so long as it informs the IAEA with all its activities in this regard, which Iran has failed to do. Tehran denied at first that the Natanz facility was a nuclear one. It claimed that it was a watch factory, then admitted that it is equipped with centrifuges used in "experimental" uranium- enrichment research. Later on, it transpired that Iran has failed to inform the IAEA of a uranium shipment from China, or of the fact that it has been enriching uranium. Suspicions mounted after the discovery that the centrifuges Iran was using had been purchased through an international network led by Pakistani scientist Abdul-Qadir Khan. The network had provided Libya and North Korea with centrifuges in the past. The case against Iran hardened when investigation with Khan showed that his network not only gave Tehran centrifuges, but also supplied it with information about the production of uranium hexafluoride, a substance used solely to produce nuclear arms. To make things worse, Iran admitted that it had owned sophisticated B-2 centrifuges since 1995, although it only started using them in 2002. Two years of negotiations between the European troika (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and Iran failed to bring about an agreement. Recently, Iran decided to resume its uranium- enriching operations, and rejected a European offer to supply it with nuclear fuel under strict guarantees. Iran also turned down a Russian offer to let it enrich uranium on Russian land. As suspicions mounted over Iran's intentions, the troika called for an emergency meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors. In September 2005, the IAEA Board of Governors issued a decision saying that Iran has not fulfilled its "contractual obligations" regarding nuclear activities. The board asked Iran to stop enriching uranium. The election of radical President Ahmadinejad, and the fiery remarks he made about Israel, brought the conflict to a head. Iran now argues that its nuclear programme is exclusively dedicated to peaceful purposes. It has signed the non-proliferation treaty and the additional protocol, which allows surprise inspection of its nuclear facilities. Tehran has allowed international inspectors to visit its nuclear installations and interview Iranian scientists. Iran has backed the Egyptian initiative for turning the Middle East into a region free from all mass destruction weapons. Tehran is of the view that the West is applying double standards in nuclear matters, for no one is objecting to Israel having a massive arsenal of atomic weapons. As things stand, the IAEA Board of Governors is expected to call on Iran to "stop immediately and indefinitely, its uranium enriching activities and to allow inspectors full access to details of its nuclear programme. The board is likely to give Iran a deadline for accepting these conditions and recommend UN Security Council action once the deadline expires. For the time being, Iran is asking for time to "examine" the Russian offer. It wants the IAEA to postpone the issue until its next regular meeting in March. Iran is showing some flexibility in the matter, for Tehran is aware that once its case has been referred to the UN Security Council, there will be no turning back. Members of the IAEA Board of Directors: Members of the IAEA Board of Directors: The Arab block: Egypt, Syria, Algeria, Yemen and Libya. The Latin American block: Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil and Colombia. The African block: Ghana and South Africa. The Asian block: India, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Sri Lanka. The European block: Belgium, Greece, France, Norway, Slovakia, Sweden, Belarus, Germany, Portugal, UK, Slovenia and Russia. The Continental block: US, Canada and Australia.
