By Hatem-Sedki When scientists began to analyse the genome of the flu virus that spread in 1918, causing the death of more than 20 million people, they found that, give or take a few discrepancies in amino acids, it was very similar to the deadly strain of avian flu known as H5N1. Though H5N1 has not transmuted to become transmissible from human to human, that it will do so is a very real possibility which is why a virus has so far killed less than 100 people is the focus of such international concern. Should it manage to transmute into a form in which it can be passed from person to person then the world will be facing a pandemic that could easily outstrip the 1918 outbreak. That said, we can manage the potential threats efficiently as long as we keep our eyes firmly on the ball. The symptoms are well known to specialists, as are its causes and means of infection. We know, too, there is no treatment for the disease and that the anti-viral drug Tamiflu should only be administered to those most at risk. Exaggerating the crisis at this stage is likely to be counter- productive. More important is to educate the public so they know what to do when a case is discovered. To which end the destruction of poultry stocks and the closing of poultry retailers for no apparent reason is an irresponsible move, placing unnecessary pressure on an enormous industry. Far more worrying are recent reports that the H5N1 virus has been found in pigs. Pigs can also host human flu viruses and thus provide a perfect breeding ground for a transmuted virus capable of being passed from person to person. Add to this the fact that swine are reared in the very heart of densely populated urban centres and you have a potentially explosive situation. This week's Soapbox speaker is science editor of the daily Al-Ahram.
