As crisis follows crisis and the government struggles to respond, Shaden Shehab asks leading commentators what it might mean for the future of Egypt Last week's terrorist attacks in Dahab were the third in Sinai within 18 months. The sectarian riots in Alexandria were an explosion of tensions that have been steadily growing in both Alexandria and Cairo for years. The Al-Salam ferry that sank in the Red Sea claiming the lives of more than a thousand passengers belonged to an Egyptian company with an appalling safety record: several other boats it owns have been involved in accidents over the last two years. These tragic events, then, have one thing in common -- they can by no means be viewed as unexpected. And it is this simple fact that has raised so many questions about the government's failure not only to foresee their occurrence and take preventative steps, but to put in place mechanisms capable of responding efficiently to crises and minimise their impact when they do occur. That failure, argue some commentators, reflects the confusion that has resulted from the country passing through a transitional change, a confusion that will begin to ebb as Egypt slowly comes to terms with changing realities and embraces democratisation. Others, though, are less sanguine, arguing that the government has not mishandled the crises it does face but lacks the vision to implement the reforms that will ensure they do not recur. Avian flu is a case in point. An outbreak in Egypt, which lies on a major bird migration route, had been a foregone conclusion for months before the first cases were detected. Yet despite advance warnings few measures appear to have been put in place to prevent the decimation of the LE17 billion poultry industry on which an estimated 2.5 million people depend for their livelihoods. Four people have already died of the virus, and the poultry industry has all but collapsed. Whatever contingency plans were in place have been patently ineffective. Last week's explosions in Dahab, observers who talked to Al-Ahram Weekly say, reflect the shortcomings of the security performance in Sinai, the scene of two earlier attacks. That three such outrages could occur in a relatively short time leaves even the most blasé worrying that there is something seriously wrong with security gathering techniques on the peninsula, and that a radical overhaul of procedures is needed. Few, though, hold out much hope they will be implemented. Nor, they say, is it enough to respond to the sectarian riots that hit Alexandria by simply televising meetings between Pope Shenouda and the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar or organising NDP demonstrations at which people march side by side, holding copies of the Quran and the Bible. And even after February's sinking of the Al-Salam 98 ferry, when questions were finally being raised about its mother company's safety record and repeated infringements of maritime regulations, the owner of the company, appointed Shura Council and NDP member Mamdouh Ismail, quietly slipped out of the country before any charges could be filed against him. "Egypt is going through a democratic transition and during such a time unwanted events happen, as has been the experience of all countries making the same transition," said Mohamed Kamal, the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) secretary for political indoctrination. "It is difficult to plan democratic transition. Egypt is in labour and will experience hardship and pain until democracy prevails. But it is on the right path." Abdel-Moneim Said, a member of the NDP Policies Committee and the director of Al-Ahram's Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, is less optimistic about the recurrence of recent events being a short- to medium-term prospect. "What we are seeing now is the result of an accumulation of problems over a long period. We have never addressed the roots of the problems, have looked only for sedatives and temporary remedies, leaving the roots to grow ever deeper." And there are those that argue that the government appears to be acting like a foreign power rather than the upholder of national rights and legitimacy. "While the government constantly reiterates that we are in the midst of a reform process, at the same time it is in conflict with professional syndicates, with university professors and, perhaps most significantly, with the judiciary who have been singled out for punishment because they had the audacity to report that the parliamentary elections were rigged," says prominent writer Fahmy Howeidy. Political analyst Amr Hashim Rabie notes that it is the government that is fuelling the internal struggles within official political parties. Having had no qualms about interfering in their internal affairs for decades, it suddenly decided that the Political Parties Committee had no mandate to arbitrate in party disputes, thus leaving the official opposition to disintegrate in a frenzy of in- fighting and power struggles. Nor, says Rabie, has any progress been made in tackling the corruption that disfigures national life and that has reached such an extent that even the most basic civic functions now require the lubricant of bribes. Kamal offers a different slant. "As the country moves towards a more open and democratic society people inevitably become more outspoken and critical. It doesn't mean that the state is getting weaker or losing control. What is happening is a healthy sign." What Kamal sees as healthy, veteran columnist Salama Ahmed Salama sees as "political decay". "The same mistakes are made again and again," says Salama. "There is an inability to manage crises and an absence of any vision of the future." It is, he argues, a "flagrant situation" that exposes the "senility of the regime." "The government is incapable of taking decisions or implementing reform." Howeidy agrees. "Egypt is ruled by a group of people concerned only with their personal interests." It is in the throes of "political disintegration that is an outcome of the regime's inability to rule". The country is "no longer governed by politics but by police officers wielding clubs and batons" as was demonstrated yet again last week when police attacked a camp set up in front of the Judges' Club in solidarity with their pro-reform demands. Hossam Badrawi, member of the NDP, insists such incidents, as well as the arrest of Al-Jazeera's Cairo office manager while covering the Dahab bombings, are "unacceptable acts that contradict with the NDP's reform initiatives". But, he adds, "opening various fronts against the regime is not going to benefit the country" when "there is a struggle between those who are pushing for reform and others who want status quo". The answer, he says, is to give civil society its head in emphasising areas of agreement with the state. "If I were to advise President Hosni Mubarak after all these tragic events," says political analyst Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed, "I would suggest he dismiss all his advisors and look for others who have the courage to tell him the truth about the performance of the state." While Said feels the country will remain in the same situation for years -- "chaos might not prevail, but there will be no forward momentum because the government is not pushing in that direction" -- Howeidy assumes that change will ultimately be born from chaos. "The government is pushing all segments of society into a cul-de-sac, reinforcing the conviction that change will only come about by force." El-Sayed finds it hard to predict the future. "The situation has reached an alarming level. The system is losing its grip and the real danger is that there are no alternatives at present so it is hard to predict the future."
