It's been almost two months since the start of protests in Sudan against President Omar Al-Bashir and his regime. However, neither side has prevailed, and for several reasons. First, regional and international caution towards developments in Sudan; second, protests appear to be planned for the long-term to exhaust security forces; and third, a raging battle between centres of power in the regime who share intersecting visions and interests. The position of regional capitals has been very reticent, due to Sudan's sensitive geopolitical location and its impact on regional security. Sudan has a 6,000 square kilometre shoreline along the Red Sea and is neighbour to Somalia where the Shebab Al-Mujahideen is active, as well as Libya and Chad. This means that a power vacuum in Sudan opens the floodgates to mayhem from the Red Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. In the first week of protests, Egypt sent its foreign minister to Khartoum and also Intelligence Chief General Abbas Kamel, who also went there on several unannounced trips. Cairo also received Al-Bashir and expressed a cautionary position, using terms such as “the state of Sudan” and “protecting the future of the Sudanese people” without mentioning Al-Bashir by name or directly supporting his regime. Egypt's sensitive position and caution was obvious at the joint news conference of the two presidents. President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi stated Egypt's position by reading a written statement, which could be the first time in the history of Egyptian-Sudanese relations. During his visit Al-Bashir promised full support for Egypt's position on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Red Sea security, which was in response to Egypt's reservations about Turkish presence on the Sudanese island of Suakin. As for Gulf states, Al-Bashir visited Qatar, but it did not provide his regime with support. Saudi Arabia said it already helped Sudan in the past with 23 billion Saudi riyals ($8 billion), and sent Saudi ministers to discuss what else is needed to schedule its debt to Gulf countries. It demanded that Al-Bashir must prevail on the ground within one month, according to leaked reports. On the global stage, major world capitals warned against confronting peaceful protesters with live bullets and the use of force, and Amnesty International published a single report on deaths among protesters. Most capitals seem to rely on regional Egyptian-Gulf action, understandings and channels. The US is preoccupied with domestic issues between Republicans and Democrats, and developments in Venezuela, which Washington views as detrimental to its interests in Latin America. London is distracted by Brexit, and Theresa May is being pulled in two directions by the House of Commons and Brussels. Paris is also bogged down by the gilet jaune (yellow vests) protests, even though France is committed to the security of African Sahel countries in the G5 alliance. The impact of protests in Sudan is clear on the structure of the state despite Al-Bashir's nimble and effective movements, and action by the Islamist National Movement against protests known as “popular security” units to prevent army support for the opposition. Al-Bashir addressed critical blocs in these institutions, young officers below the rank of brigadier general who are the most disgruntled, while arresting a few of them for supporting the Sudanese uprising. He is doing the same with the Sudanese Islamist Movement. Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, a former vice president who is a prominent player, said his movement's “Shadow Brigades” could crackdown on the uprising, which was a shocking declaration for many and appears to have been a message to the outside world as well. The delicate balance between centres of power in Sudan is an obstacle in the way of reaching an agreement. During a speech at an army base in Atbara one month ago, Al-Bashir hinted he could abdicate power to the army, which Taha rejects. Quarrels between Intelligence Chief Salah Josh and General Mohamed Hamdan Daqlu (known as Hamidti), commander of the Rapid Support Forces, are disconcerting especially after the former stripped the latter of his forces, and Hamidti disappeared one month ago. Recently, Janjaweed militias in Darfur threatened to hold the government responsible if Hamidti is harmed. Current dynamics indicate that relying on Al-Bashir is useless in light of the comprehensive demands of protesters, their insistence on overthrowing the regime and demonstrations morphing from economic protests to a political plan with an agenda for change. Second, continued clashes and the delicate balance between centres of power undermines the structure of the state, which could result in chaos. Regional and world countries must move to avoid this scenario, not through political deals but by allowing a credible democratic transition in Sudan. This is the sole guarantee to incorporate the ethnic and cultural diversity of Sudan in a process that protects the unity of Sudan, which is a demand of the people and necessary for regional security.
