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Arithmetic made simple
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 05 - 10 - 2006

For the US, security now takes precedence over democratisation. Dina Ezzat reports on US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to Cairo
The 6+2 meeting with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice -- including the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, and Jordan and Egypt -- held at the Egyptian capital brought together eight Arab countries whose most obvious shared interests are security-oriented: the containment of growing Iranian influence in the eastern part of the Arab world, the stabilisation of Iraq and the reigning in of political Islamist movements, especially Iranian-supported Hizbullah and Hamas. It was lost on few, and certainly not on those gathered outside Al-Azhar Mosque on Tuesday evening to protest Rice's visit to Cairo, that these are interests shared by the US administration.
The group first met with Rice last month on the fringe of the UN General Assembly, the gathering an expansion of the regular consultations held between the US secretary and the foreign ministers of members of the GCC.
"The meeting was very useful and Secretary Rice asked for another round to be held in Cairo. The Arabs thought this a positive way to influence, as much as possible, the US perception of and plans for the region," said Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit.
Speaking to the press after a meeting held with Rice on Tuesday afternoon the foreign minister was keen to dispel concerns that the gathering signaled a new US-led Arab alliance aimed at undermining Iran and curtailing the roles of Hizbullah and Hamas.
Tuesday's meeting was not, he insisted, about moderates versus extremists but about the determination of Arab countries with close ties with the US to encourage more active American engagement "to help solve the real problem -- namely the Palestinian question."
No date has been fixed for further meetings of a group qualified by some as a " marriage de raison " between Washington and its closest Arab allies, though suggestions have emerged that Morocco has expressed its interest in joining.
Embarking on her Middle East tour which began on Sunday in Jeddah and is expected to conclude today in Israel after stops in Cairo and Ramallah, Rice said that "it was necessary to consult with, and in effect rally, moderate forces." She argued the "GCC+2 effort" offers an opportunity for "a new configuration to work with moderate states" and support new voices of moderation in the region like the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora, the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas and the government of Iraq. It is a configuration, she said, that "can be quite powerful in resisting extremist forces". Yet during her joint press conference in Cairo with Abul-Gheit on Tuesday evening she avoided all mention of this "new configuration" of moderation.
The organisers of the meeting cancelled plans to include the Jordanian foreign minister and the secretary-general of the GCC in the final press conference in an attempt to deflect accusations that a new sub-regional gathering was indeed being formed.
"This is not an exclusive club and it is wrong to perceive it as such," said one Egyptian diplomat. There was no attempt, he said, to undermine the role of the Arab League in favour of a new group. "Arab participants made it clear to Rice that they were acting in line with the Arab consensus reached under the umbrella of the League."
The meeting, Abul-Gheit told journalists, concentrated mainly on ways to revive Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, to allow for African Union forces in Darfur to be strengthened without offending Khartoum and on promoting stability in Iraq.
Iran, Abul-Gheit and Rice both said, was discussed only in light of on-going efforts to convince Tehran to suspend its plans to enrich uranium.
The meeting also broached the future of regional security arrangements. Participants agreed to act to halt funds from being channeled to Hamas in order to strengthen Fatah in the on-going Palestinian tug of war. It also discussed Jordan and Egypt's roles in mediating Palestinian-Israeli affairs and in offering security guarantees to Israel as a prelude to lifting the blockade imposed on Palestinians. The meeting also agreed on the need for Arab Gulf countries to strengthen their influence over Sunnis in both Iraq and Lebanon in order to contain Iranian influence.
Egypt, say senior officials, could not afford to be absent from such a meeting. According to one Egyptian official Egypt's presence offered an opportunity to fine-tune the debate over Iran: "Instead of talking about a confrontation with Iran which could have been the case if it was left just to the US and the GCC, the issue was more how to avoid the negative consequences of expanding Iranian influence in the eastern part of the Arab world."
He added that "moderating Egyptian and Jordanian" voices had argued for caution in any attempts to get Hamas to either play by the rules of Arab-Israeli negotiations or else abandon the scene.
During Sunday's meeting in Cairo between President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah, sources say the two agreed on the importance of not painting Hamas into a corner.
"Even if this meeting comes as a prelude to the announcement of the death of the Hamas government there is a realisation on Jordan and Egypt's side that this does not have to be accompanied by Palestinian bloodshed," said Yassar Qatarnah, head of the Jordanian Diplomatic Institute.
Meanwhile, Arab foreign ministers took the opportunity to tell Rice the US must provide Abbas with support by pressing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to make concessions that might consolidate Abbas's position in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Arab foreign ministers urged Rice to pressure Olmert into agreeing to the opening of the Rafah crossing linking Gaza with Egypt as well as other border crossings, in line with recommendations made by the Quartet in its recent New York meeting. They also pushed for Israel to resume the transfer of tax and customs revenues to the PA.
Participating Arab countries are undoubtedly happy -- though none is likely to admit it -- that Washington's main concern now is moderation, a euphemism for being flexible towards Israel and inflexible towards Iran, and not democratisation.
During the Tuesday press conference Rice was pressed by American journalists over her waning enthusiasm to discuss political reform in Egypt and other Arab countries. Washington, she replied, is still "talking" with its friends about the issue but there is now a clear realisation that democratisation is a long-term process that cannot be imposed.


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