The independent committee of the 2016 Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership announced no one meets the criteria for the prize among former African leaders who left office over the past three years (2014-2016). The announcement came 28 February, after a meeting of the prize committee chaired by Salim Ahmed Salim, Tanzania's prime minister in the 1980s and secretary-general of the Organisation of African Unity in the 1990s, and a meeting of the board of trustees of the prize's sponsor. The Mo Ibrahim Prize is one of the top prizes worldwide with a value of $5 million given to the winner over 10 years, as well as $200,000 annually until death. Four former African leaders won the prize in the past, including Namibia's Hifikepunye Phamba in 2014; Pedro Pires from Cote d'Ivoire in 2011; Botswana's Festus Mogae in 2008; and in 2007, Joaquim Chissano from Mozambique. South African leader Nelson Mandela also received an honorary prize in 2007. All laureates have so far come from countries in southern Africa, except for Pires from Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa. Winners must be heads of state or government, elected through democratic means and who left office within the last three years. Nominees must have carried out their duties in office according to the constitution, without violating, manipulating or circumventing its statutes. The most important criteria, however, is that nominees show exceptional leadership during their term in office. The four past winners have indeed showed this by transforming their terms in office into success stories, such as Botswana, the most promising African model. After announcing there were no winners this year, Salim said: “As I say every year, since it was launched in 2006, the prize intentionally has a high ceiling. We realise there have been good contributions by several African leaders, but the prize was created to celebrate exceptional leadership in Africa. Thus, and after diligent thought, the committee decided not to grant the prize for 2016.” There only seems to have been three or four candidates who recently left office through democratic constitutional means, most notably Nigeria's Goodluck Jonathan in 2015; Moncef Marzouki of Tunisia in 2014; and Joyce Banda from Malawi in 2014. They all lost the elections for a second term. Obviously, the committee did not feel that Marzouki— who is described by supporters as the “champion human rights activist for democracy” — was an exceptional leader who promoted democracy, good governance and transparency. In an earlier comment by Salim, he said African leaders lack institutions to help them achieve stability through democracy. The forces opposing good governance and transparency remain stronger and dominant, but the prize is not delusional or impossible. Yes, the future may bring exceptional nominees such as Botswana's President Ian Khama, a strong critic of South Africa for not speaking up against Zimbabwe's dictator Robert Mugabe. The incumbent Senegalese President Maky Sall could also be a strong candidate once he leaves office, since he is the first African leader to cut the presidential term from seven to five years. He is also a prominent warrior against corruption on the continent, which raised his country's ranking on the Corruption Perceptions Index issued by Transparency International. Senegal also supported the outcome of the presidential results in neighbouring Gambia when former president Yahya Gameh refused to step down despite losing the elections. Liberia's President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf whose term ends this year is the first female to be elected president of an African country, after defeating famous football player George Weah. Sirleaf's term began in 2005 by uniting the country after a fierce civil war that tore it apart. She showed strong leadership during the Ebola outbreak that hit several countries in far western Africa. Her best achievement, according to Sirleaf herself, is that she will be Liberia's first former president who will live a normal life after leaving office. “This has not happened here for many years,” she said. Sirleaf won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2011 for rebuilding Liberia after a 14-year civil war that destroyed education and healthcare, and accumulated one of the largest debts on the continent in proportion to population size, which prevented the country from borrowing to fund any projects. A win for Sirleaf or Sall would shift the prize from southern Africa to the west, which has tried to achieve democracy since the late 1980s. Although democratic and civil society movements are frustrated there is no winner of the 2016 Ibrahim Prize, this is a natural outcome after the rise of a strong trend of keeping dictatorships in place to fight terrorism or prevent the collapse of the state. This is evident in the success of several African leaders in amending constitutions to remain in power for a third or even fourth term. Even in countries that hold routine elections, they tend to elect strongmen who could be former coup leaders, such as Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria who was a former general who led a coup in the mid-1980s after which he ruled for 20 months. Nonetheless, there is a strong current opposed to dictatorships that has gained momentum after West African countries agreed to reject Gameh staying in power in Gambia after losing the elections. Also, the Catholic Church in Democratic Congo sponsored talks between the regime and opposition that concluded in agreement not to amend the constitution and end the rule of Joseph Kabila which he inherited from his father in 2003. Interference by neighbouring countries to end political crises is frequent. It happened in Burundi after the constitution was amended and President Pierre Nkurunziza was given a third term, which violates the constitution and peace agreement that ended the civil war there. There are also popular revolutions, such as the one that overthrew Burkina Faso's strongman Blaise Compaore in 2014 when he attempted to amend the constitution to remain in office longer. The desire for stable governance through ballot boxes has even reached Somalia, which has been uncontrollable since the collapse of president Siad Barre's regime in 1990, electing three presidents in more than one decade. There are 15 leaders in Africa whose terms have exceeded at least 15 years, which is longer than any legal term. The longest term is seven years and is renewable only once, making it a maximum of 14 years in office. It is unlikely any of these leaders will leave office quietly, but rather through death, coup d'etat or revolution.
