It was awkward, tentative and anxious at times. This was the first meeting between European officials and members of the new US administration. They gathered in Germany to attend the Munich Security Conference, to discuss international threats. But for many, the enemy was within. So, after pleasantries and introductions, time came for the hard talk. Usually in gatherings like this, aiming to discuss security risks in the world, there are the usual suspects, like extremism, biological terrorism, cyber-attacks, the lack of economic growth, political instability and climate change. But in Munich there was an unfamiliar threat that dominated, explicitly and implicitly, the discussion. It was the unpredictability of Donald Trump's presidency, and what it means for Europe and the world. European leaders could not hide their anxiety and the US administration must have known how worried they are. The White House dispatched top officials to Europe in a matter of days to offer reassurances. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson attended the G20 Summit in Bonn, Germany. US Vice-President Mike Pence, Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly attended the Munich Security Conference. Then Pence went to Brussels to attend a NATO meeting, while Mattis went to Iraq to reduce tension with Baghdad over the ban on Muslims that included Iraqi citizens, discussing the offensive to retake the western half of Mosul from the Islamic State group, and reassuring Iraqis, “we are not in Iraq to seize anybody's oil” — a shift away from Trump's provocative rhetoric. The high level of the American delegation in Munich, which included also top members of Congress and State Department officials, prompted German Chancellor Angela Merkel to attend the Munich forum alongside senior EU officials and European and world leaders. It was a good opportunity, and the first one, to get acquainted with the Trump administration. Also, it was a good opportunity to express fears, dissatisfaction, confusion and frustration over Trump's policies and rhetoric about Europe, NATO, Brexit and Russia. And this exactly what they did. In a bold speech, German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen cautioned the United States not to take trans-Atlantic relations for granted, urging Trump and his team to cherish the same. She also warned Washington against hurting EU cohesion and abandoning shared values. “Our American friends: Know well that your tone on Europe and NATO has a direct impact on the cohesion of our continent,” the German minister told the Munich Security Conference. “A stable European Union is also in America's interest, as is a strong and unified NATO,” she said, pointing out that US allies in the EU and NATO should not be put on the same footing as Russia. She also condemned Trump's ban on migrants from Muslim-majority nations. “We should be careful that this fight (against terror) does not become a front against Islam and Muslims. Otherwise we run the risk of digging ourselves into a deeper grave in which violence and terror only grow further. Rather, it is right to seek partnership with like-minded Muslim and Arab nations.” She reminded Washington of NATO's core values, “that never leave any room for torture”. They also, Von der Leyen said, “require us to prevent causing any civilian victims and it means giving protection to those who are in need.” For Europe, Trump's vision of the world and his effect on Europe's far right parties is not to be underestimated. If Europe does not fight back, Merkel and her brand of open borders, tolerance and consensus politics may be gone by September, election time in Germany. “Trump is reversing what the Obama administration did in the last eight years, not only internally but also internationally,” and the Europeans are terrified, says Aaron David Miller, vice president of the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, who also served as an adviser to both Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. Miller told Al-Ahram Weekly that, “Mr Trump's message is a populist message against immigration and globalisation and that resonates with certain realities in Europe right now. I do not think he is fundamentally opposed to the European Union. But the way his position is expressed, plays in Mr Vladimir Putin's hand. Mr Putin clearly would like to divide NATO and see the EU fragment because it would be in Russia's interest, as it would allow him to expand into individual European countries, and that is far harder when Europe is united and backed by a US government determined to check Russian advances in places like Ukraine and the Baltic States.” ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: The need of European leaders for reassurance was hardly met in Munich, Brussels or Bonn. US officials did express strong support for NATO, but it was not unconditional love. US Vice-President Pence used his Munich speech to emphasise that the US will be “unwavering in its commitment to the Trans-Atlantic alliance”. He also made clear that the US would continue to hold Russia to account, while it searched for areas of common ground. His message was also not without warnings for US allies in NATO who do not meet the agreed target for defence spending. “Let me be clear on this point; the president of the United States expects our allies to keep their word to fulfil this commitment and for most that means the time has come to do more,” he said. This ultimatum did not go down well with US allies. But it was the message Trump wanted European leaders to hear the most. US Secretary of Defence James Mattis, on his first visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels, also delivered a blunt warning to America's allies that they must increase military spending or the United States will retreat from its commitment to the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. He also insisted that Russia had to abide by international law. While in Bonn, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said following his first meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the G20 meeting, that the US sought cooperation with Moscow only when doing so “will benefit the American people”. However, in all these intriguing encounters between US and European officials, there was one significant missing issue: The role of the European Union. In Mr Pence's speech in Munich, Mr Mattis's talks in Brussels and Mr Tillerson's meetings in Bonn, there was no mention of the role or importance of the European Union. Not only that, but Mr Pence did not pay tribute to his host and the strong leader of Europe, Angela Merkel, during his speech in Munich, to the dismay of many European officials who would have seen that as an alarming sign of how unenthusiastic Trump is towards the EU, which he would not mind being dismantled. “It would not be in the interest of US national security if the EU disintegrated. But we must accept some realities. Mr Trump's policies are not responsible for what is happing in Europe. I mean Brexit was a surprise to everyone, but it reflects certain contradictions and fundamental weaknesses about the whole structure of the European Union,” Miller told the Weekly. There is obviously a gap between the US and the EU regarding how they see the European Union and NATO. Merkel in her Munich speech made clear that military spending alone was not the only measure of European commitment to NATO. She also took issue with many of Trump's policies, noting the importance of international multilateral institutions like the EU and the UN and the value of open borders, tolerance and democracy. Then she posed a fundamental question: “Will we be able to act in concert together or will we fall back into parochial policies?” It was a dig at Mr Trump. POST-WEST WORLD ORDER: The chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, laid bare Europe's fear in this ambiguous time. “There is massive uncertainty in the world today, in particular the future of the Trans-Atlantic relationship. European leaders, European governments and others are extremely impatient to find out what will really drive US foreign policy in this new period,” he said. For him and other European leaders, the vacuum of leadership, the fluidity of the world order, and the rise of non-state actors could mean the marginalisation of Eurocentrism. “Are we entering an era where authoritarian governments are replacing traditional Western value-based democracy? Is it right to be concerned about the decline of the West and the disappearance of the classic leadership of the West?” Ischinger asked, noting that recent challenges raise important questions about the international order in general. A look at NATO, the UN, the EU and the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe) gives grim answers. These are all institutions in decline. And without these institutions, there is no order in the international order. It is a structural crisis and a lot will depend on the US. The problem with the Trump administration is that it seems like two administrations. While his senior officials were touring Munich, Brussels and Bonn to reassure American's allies, especially EU leaders, the US president was in Florida advocating Brexit again. Trump, who proudly labelled himself “Mr Brexit”, said to his supporters at a rally in Florida: “I am here to tell you about our incredible progress in making America great again… You are all part of this incredible movement.” He added: “It's a movement that is just sweeping across our country, is sweeping, frankly, across the globe. Look at Brexit. Look at Brexit. A much smaller example, but is still something you can look to. People want to take back control of their countries and they want to take back control of their lives and the lives of their families.” For Europe, the anxiety will continue.
