There have been various accounts of how last week's visit by President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was organised, and why it did not allow for a meeting between Al-Sisi and Saudi Monarch Salman bin Abdel-Aziz who arrived in Abu Dhabi at the end of Al-Sisi's relatively long stay in the UAE. The majority of accounts suggest the visit was tailored to accommodate Cairo's wish for the good offices of Abu Dhabi in helping to contain the difficulties that have beset Egyptian-Saudi relations. Informed sources say the trip was discussed by Al-Sisi and the UAE's Vice President Mohamed bin Zayed during the latter's recent visit to Egypt when, according to one source, “the commitment of the UAE to work on reducing tensions between Egypt and Saudi Arabia was raised as part of a wider discussions on Egyptian relations with the Gulf in general”. Part of the tacit agreement involved UAE proposals related to Egypt's internal political situation. According to several sources, the UAE asked the Egyptian authorities to act to reduce the political tug of war with non-Islamist figures including former prime minister and one time presidential runner Ahmed Shafik, who has been residing in the UAE for more than three years and ten days ago was cleared of charges of corruption in Egypt, and Hisham Geneina, former head of the Central Auditing Organisation who is being prosecuted after making a claim in the press that corruption in state institutions cost at least LE600 billion in 2015. The UAE's proposals, which also included averting any media or political showdown with Qatar in favour of promoting better Egyptian relations with the GCC overall, were generally accepted in Cairo, say sources. According to one Egyptian official, Cairo's “muted reaction, at the official level, to an extremely one-sided documentary on military conscription in Egypt produced by Al-Jazeera was part of the restraint Egypt promised the UAE it would show towards Qatar”. Egyptian officials speaking off the record say Cairo has little choice but to try and improve relations with the Arab Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, as it faces huge economic challenges and threats to regional stability, though “Qatar is an exception to this general rule given Doha's open hostility to the regime in Egypt.” “When Egypt invited King Salman to visit last spring it was hoping to recharge the batteries of the Cairo-Riyadh alliance that was so strong in the summer of 2013,” says a senior Egyptian official. Unfortunately, he adds, things went wrong despite the unprecedentedly grand welcome Egypt accorded to the Saudi monarch in his four-day visit. According to the same senior official, Al-Sisi had hoped the visit would restore trust and cooperation between Cairo and Riyadh to the level seen under King Abdullah. “Salman was never as forthcoming towards Cairo as Abdullah and Al-Sisi hoped he would be able to turn things round. He very nearly did.” Relations began to sour after Cairo failed to transfer sovereignty over the Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia despite signing a maritime demarcation agreement during Salman's visit to allow for the transfer. A senior Saudi diplomat in New York recently told diplomatic interlocutors that what has happened since the signing of the agreement is unacceptable to Riyadh. Salman, he said, will not accept “being taken for a ride by Cairo”. Saudi diplomats speaking about relations with Egypt regularly complain that though Riyadh was forthcoming and supportive, its generosity was abused. Saudi officials refuse to accept it was impossible for the head of the Egyptian executive to transfer the islands despite public anger over the agreement, a lack of establishment support for the deal and legal rulings — the latest on Monday, from the State Council — that the transfer breached the constitution. The government has been instructed by the president's office to explore all legal avenues to implement the agreement. Such instructions, however, have not been enough to contain the tensions or head of harsh economic Saudi measures, including the suspension of monthly oil shipments agreed during Salman's visit to Egypt. For the third consecutive month Cairo has been forced to buy oil on the international market at a much higher price than the petroleum products Saudi Arabia was supplying on the basis of deferred payment. Cairo is also faced with the possible suspension of Saudi investments that had been expected to help Egypt regain some economic steam. In the UAE Al-Sisi told his hosts that he “was doing everything possible to find a way to implement the Tiran and Sanafir agreement but due legal process had to be followed to avoid any internal crisis,” says one source. Riyadh has yet to be convinced. According to an informed UAE source, the Saudi king and his son, Mohamed bin Salman, resisted suggestions that there should be a meeting in the UAE with Egypt's president. “Al-Sisi was there until the very last minute in the hope that things would pick up but then it was clear that mediation efforts, which the UAE had reluctantly taken on after a brief and inconclusive Kuwaiti attempt, were going nowhere,” says an informed Egyptian diplomat. Saudi complaints, he says, go beyond Tiran and Sanafir and include Riyadh's “dismay at the failure of Egypt to lend support” to the Saudis in their war against the Houthis in Yemen and at Cairo's refusal to politically side with Riyadh over Syria. The Saudis were particularly disappointed when, during his recent visit to Lisbon, Al-Sisi said during an interview broadcast on Portuguese TV that Egypt supports the Syrian army. The Saudis, say the UAE source, see Egypt's support for Syria as opposing Riyadh rather than offering succour to a regime which shares Cairo's own commitment to fight Islamists, from the Muslim Brotherhood to IS. The Saudis were also unhappy with the recent UNSC draft resolution that Egypt sponsored, along with Spain and New Zealand, calling for a humanitarian truce in Aleppo involving all parties to allow for the rescue of civilians. Russia and China jointly vetoed the draft on Monday. Egyptian and Arab diplomats agree that in the absence of a major game changer there will be no thaw in relations between Cairo and Riyadh in the foreseeable future. While Cairo is keeping its fingers crossed that positive engagement with the incoming Trump administration may prompt regional players to reconsider their position towards Egypt no one knows if this engagement will actually happen or what its impact would be. “It makes sense to expect the US under Trump to work closely with Egypt on handling Libya in a way that undermines any potential for the rise of Islamism, militant or otherwise, and in handling Sinai but it is hard to see Trump compromising Washington's relations with the Gulf for Cairo,” says a Middle-East based Western diplomat. “At the end of the day the Saudis and the Egyptians will have to sort out their own differences.” How this might happen when GCC countries are lining up behind Riyadh is anyone's guess. King Salman's Gulf tour which began on Friday with the UAE also includes Cairo's arch regional enemy Qatar, and Bahrain, where he is attending the GCC Summit. During the course of his travels Salman has made it clear that he is not interested to soliciting mediation to help ease the tension between Cairo and Riyadh. Following the UAE's attempts — prompted by a wish to avoid further regional obstacles rather than reside with Egypt given the current lull in relations between Cairo and Abu Dhabi — no one in the GCC is likely to come up with a fresh reconciliation initiative for the time being.
